3 minute read
The Racing and Sports Priceline looks at the 2019 Huxley Stakes from Chester.
One of the key benefits of having an automated process when it comes to doing the form is the consistency of assessment. That assessment may benefit from some human intuition but it's a good idea to have a consistent and solid base from which to make our bias-riddled speculations...
Tonight's Huxley Stakes at Chester is an interesting case with the Racing and Sports Priceline coming up with a market that flies in the face of the obvious narrative.
Assessed Prices: Matterhorn $2.40; Addeybb $3.50; Forest Ranger $5.50.
Click here for free form, ratings, speed maps and worksheets for Chester tonight
The ground turned a bit nasty as Chester last night, and that has punters reaching for the wet track form, but this model doesn't change it's tune based on the going.
There may be a flaw in that but there is also a flaw in how we punters tend to look to hard for the 'perfect bet' and allow single negative variables to put us off good bets just because it doesn't 'tick all the boxes'.
This same line of thinking leads many to have their biggest bets on the horses they assess as most likely to win rather than those where they see their biggest edge. But we are waffling now...
In the Huxley tonight our model's top pick Matterhorn faces a big issue - the ground. Not only is he a question mark on the soft but he has barely seen grass in his life. An all weather monster, but still a monster - coming off a big figure last time out that would leave his rivals tonight gasping if he reproduced it.
He probably won't - but he doesn't have to every time. We don't need the perfect bet. We don't want a strike rate, we want a long term earn, and Matterhorn just has to get it done more often than the ~28% that the current market says he will. The model says he gets it done ~40% of the time.
The model's master can't help but think about main danger Addeybb's wet track record and Matterhorn's lack of grass-track experience, but the reason we ask the model is because we want a long-term consistent view - and the model says 'shut up and bet'. 
