3 minute read
The rail is out 3m the entire and the form has been done for a heavy track.
Race 1 - 11:20AM FUJITSU GENERAL HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Hard to knock the chances of Snitzel colt 4. Verne. He was bottled up on debut in the box seat on the Kensington track and got out too late to run down 3. In The Congo. Second up he made amends for that defeat, winning with a bit up his sleeve at Warwick Farm. Hugh Bowman said post-race that Verne gave him the feel of a 1400m horse so the step out to 1200m looks in his favour. Verne broke the class record last start too, when winning by near two lengths. Brodie Loy takes over on Saturday and shouldn't have too much trouble landing in the first couple. Brings a strong SP profile, has handled soft tracks, presents on a quick turnaround and has tactical speed.
Dangers: 9. Huriwai produced a sneaky debut fourth behind In The Congo and Verne. After being baulked for a run up the fence, Punters Intelligence reveals he clocked the fastest closing splits home. Can only improve at his second start. Smokey. 10. Bitcoin Baby knuckled down to win over 900m on debut at Newcastle and the runner up has since franked the form, albeit in lesser grade. 2. Park Avenue is two from two and overcame a slow tempo to win last start so the win was better than the margin suggests. 6. Sacred Field eased late in betting on debut, and looked to get his chance, but respect his starting price on debut in what looks a key form reference for this.
How to play it: Verne WIN ($4 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 2 - 11:55AM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 PLATE (1500 METRES)
7. The Drover has come up with a horrible gate but if Jason Collett can find a three-wide running line, this gelding has the talent to win a Highway Handicap. The four-year-old has been a work in progress for Bathurst-based trainer Roy McCabe but on the back of a soft Wellington win, the timing is right to give him the chance. First up this preparation he smoked to the line over 1100m behind subsequent Highway winner Ahead Start. He then had a torrid run at Mudgee so forgive him that before he just felt the pinch late at Parkes when four weeks between runs. The winner there A Fortunate Lass went on to run fourth in Swagger's Highway win. Hasn't seen a heavy track but has handled soft.
Dangers: 8. Casino Kid will be closing hard late. Finally got his second career win two back before holding that form at Tamworth behind JaJa Chaboogie. 11. Charvet is chasing three straight but jumps sharply in trip from 1250m. That's a query especially given how testing the track will be. 16. Snowbella gets map favours from the low draw and has upside. Again, she jumps in trip too though. 10. Cecilia is hard fit, handles wet tracks and will make her own luck. That can only see her run well. 15. Tipping Point is in the mix too.
How to play it: The Drover EACH WAY ($23 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 3 - 12:30PM CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
2. Malkovich is one dimensional so early pressure holds the key to his chances but suspect he has early speed that none of these can match, as fast as a couple of them are. First up the three-year-old wasn't able to rail up against the fence, with the inside chopping out, and it saw him empty out the last 100m. With his racing style he needs to be hard fit to sustain it throughout. Back to 1000m and second up should ensure that here. Looking at his wet form it might raise a query but note that his one heavy track failure was over 1200m, while his soft track failure was also over that trip. He doesn't get beyond 1100m. Not at this point in his career anyways.
Dangers: 11. Ice In Vancouver is untapped with three wins form four starts, the only defeat coming when he was deep ended in the Kosciuszko. Resumed with a blistering win at Tamworth where he was expected to win at $1.65. There's no knock on his talent, he gets in with just 52.5kg and should get a cart across from Malkovish. Forget 6. De Grawin ever ran first up. If they are more aggressive second up it's a worry for Malkovich, having drawn to his immediate inside. 4. Hulk has raced well dropping back from 1100m to 1000m in the past. 10. Our Bellagio Miss is honest and loves it wet.
How to play it: Malkovich WIN ($3.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 4 - 1:05PM 50 YEAR AND LIFE MEMBERS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
7. Gravina trounced his rivals a fortnight ago at Randwick over 1200m. A repeat of that performance wins this too. Where did that five length win come from, though? In his defence, it was only his eighth start and his second on a wet track, which now sees him two from two on soft ground. Tycoonist has since franked the form from last start, running a luckless third last Saturday. It's no surprise to see three-kilo claimer Reece Jones keep the ride, which sees the three-year-old in with 53.5kg. The map looks kind again for the colt with Jones likely to hold a spot in behind the leaders. Just needs to hold his form. Hard to find any knocks, apart from the price.
Dangers: 2. Belluci Babe clocked a sizzling 32.81s last 600m last start, according to Punters Intelligence. She should have won. She's unproven beyond 1100m but there's no reason to think she won't stretch to 1200m on the strength of her close last start. 1. Ulysses thundered home first up last preparation when forced back from a wide draw. Expect the same tactics here. Rarely runs poorly and has trialled up well. 8. Shaik handles it wet and drops back in grade from first up. Won two from three for Team Hawkes last campaign, both on Soft 7 tracks. 11. Steel Diamond rates a mention.
How to play it: Gravina WIN ($1.95 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 5 - 1:40PM DRINKWISE MILE (1600 METRES)
5. La Chevalee looks exceptionally well placed up from Victoria. This four-year-old mare has found one better in her two runs back this time in but she was first up for 42 weeks at Warrnambool when second to Witchfulthinking, since second at Flemington, before La Chevalee bumped into a very smart one at Sandown two weeks ago. Kurabui has won four from four and looks destined future Group wins. La Chevalee has tactical speed so she won't be far away from the middle draw and she loves wet tracks. Imagine that's why Ciaron Maher and David Eustace have sent her up the Highway. The daughter of Written Tycoon is 3:2-1-0 on heavy tracks which includes a dominant Flemington win.
Dangers: It's been a forgetful preparation for 1. Akari. She can't catch a break. That continued last Saturday when a luckless 10th. Since breaking her maiden, she hasn't race in anything less than BM88 level. 4. Zing was touched off in a three way go last Saturday. Has found the perfect race third up, she won third up last preparation from in front, and presents at her top on the seven day backup. 6. Ruby Tuesday half missed the kick at Rosehill last start but had her chance thereafter. Charleise has since won again. 7. Snippy Fox tackles the mile for the first time but the timing looks right to have a crack. She handles all conditions. 11. Azarmin's win this perpetration was a dominant one over Monsieur Sisu on a heavy track.
How to play it: La Chevalee WIN ($3.90 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 6 - 2:20PM HEINEKEN RACING TO WIN HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
Can 7. Kirwan's Lane reproduce what he did last start when knocking off Ellsberg? The time was fast, the gap back to third was seven lengths. The query is it was a huge spike in his form and at start number 21 in his career. Brenton Avdulla gave this four-year-old an absolute peach of a ride last time out and he stays on. Kirwan's Lane makes the leap from BM88 into an open handicap but gets some weight relief because of it. Handles all surfaces and like the three weeks between runs keeping him fresh enough for the mile third up, as the gelding has got out to 2000m in the past. The difference between him and 11. Brutality is that he has done it, Brutality is still teasing to do it.
Dangers: Love the way Brutality has been smashing the line this preparation. Two back it was in The Coast behind Brandenburg and Nudge while last start the slow tempo and step back to 1400m were against him but he still produced a monster finish to grab third. This is perfect, wet track and over the mile. Would've preferred a wider draw, if we're being picky. That changes if James Innes Jnr can use barrier 1 to be closer. 2. Order Again's Randwick form (5:0-0-0) looks awful but three of those misses were fourths. 3. Royal Celebration keeps fronting up. 4. Dealmaker is the smokey, capable of improving sharply out to the mile while 12. Toryjoy will give a sight.
How to play it: Kirwan's Lane WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 7 - 3:00PM BOB CHARLEY AO STAKES (1100 METRES)
The key to 7. Wandabaa turning a string of placings into an overdue eighth career win is the likelihood of a heavy track. The four-year-old is 10:4-2-2 on wet tracks. Last start she kept closing behind 5. Adelong but sets up to turn the tables. Ideally, this would be over 1200m as suspect 1100m is a short as she wants it nowadays but with plenty of speed engaged, the perfect draw to settle midfield and a genuinely testing track, there is a lot in her favour. Enough to overlook the little distance query. Prior to that she was just fair out to 1300m at Hakwesbury in a sprint home behind Sweet Deal but three starts ago she went to the line with Fasika and Entriviere. Gets her chance.
Dangers: 14. Ballistic Lover showed brilliant sustained speed to win the Denise's Joy last start, beating Majestic Shot. That was against three-year-old fillies so this is considerably harder and she swaps the Rosehill 1100m for the Randwick 1100m but it was too sharp of a win to not sit up and take notice of. Can she cross 5. Adelong and 4. Embracer? 12. Surreal Step has been kept fresh for the 1100m and looks ready to win. Lovely map. 1. Viridine ran fourth in this race 12 months ago and his lead up form is similar. Keeps creeping up in the weights, however. Is 8. Fituese happy on wet ground? 10. Noble Boy wouldn't shock.
How to play it: Wandabaa WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 8 - 3:40PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
2. Enchanted Heart eats mud. The wetter the better for the Takeover Target Stakes winner. That was only two starts ago. Let's not forget too quickly. Last start she dropped back towards the tail of the field and found the 1100m too sharp, back from 1200m. Adelong sat outside of the leader and proved too nippy. The four-year-old has won out to 1400m so the step out to 1300m looks much more suitable at this stage of her preparation. Her heavy track form reads 4:3-0-0 and she maps beautifully. In her last three wins, all on wet tracks, the runner ups have been Ellsberg, Lost And Running and Snitz. There doesn't look to be a lot of speed so expect Louise Day to be positive early. May even box seat.
Dangers: Terrified of 1. Tricky Gal . She flies fresh (4:3-1-0) with her one first up defeat coming last preparation where she ran a 0.4L second behind Tailleur, with Icebath in third. Her last eight starts have all been at Group level and she is 10:3-6-0 on wet tracks. Love the way she trucked to the line in a recent trial. 4. True Detective is a 1300m specialist (6:3-2-0). 8. Dream Circle is chasing three straight but this is harder again. 12. Mirra Vision won well enough first up but it all fell perfectly into place for her. 3. Grand Piano was touched off by Profit at Eagle Farm last start but was well held by Enchanted Heart prior to that. Looks to be an edge in backing the top two mares.
How to play it: Enchanted Heart WIN ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) and 2,1 QUINELLA Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 9 - 4:20PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
10. Blondeau returned with a bang at Gosford, producing a career best. The question thereafter was can we trust him to do that again next time? The answer turned out to be somewhere in the middle. The three-year-old was subsequently sent out an odds on favourite at Rosehill, running on late into third. Sure, he didn't win but Punters Intelligence reveals that Blondeau's 33.46s last 600m was the quickest across the entire meeting. It was still a run full of merit and he did enough second up to warrant following up in what is arguably a weaker BM78 and out to a suitable 1400m. Handles wet tracks and draws perfectly for his racing style. Perfectly placed to bounce back and restore the faith of punters that he has returned better than ever.
Dangers: 8. Cisco Bay looks Blondeau's main threat but can he give Blondeau a start and run him down? That might be the scenario he faces from the wide draw. The six-year-old is an underrated horse and has trialled as well as ever leading into this campaign. Will win races this preparation. 5. Canasta is a very honest on pacer. His history says he improves second up so to get as close as he did fresh bodes well for this. His advantage is the ability to make his own luck. There was a lot to like about how 7. Criminal Code closed off over 1300m in the same race as Canasta. Keep an eye on him with a view to backing him third up out to the mile.
How to play it: Blondeau WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
