3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Ray Hickson for Wednesday’s Kensington meeting. Selections based on a soft track.
Race 1 - 1:25PM VINERY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
6. Willowy did more than enough on debut three weeks ago to suggest she can improve with an extra 100m. That day it was helpful to be on the fence and she made her run down the middle so the effort had more merit than it looked. Hard to beat if it's an even deck.
Dangers: 4. Mokulua raced handy off a wide gate and went down fighting behind Profondo here two weeks ago. Yet to see a rain affected track but drawn well, should be close to a peak and has every chance to go one better. 10. Mikasa could be a big improver. She contested the same race and finished last but raced wide all the way and was only beaten four lengths. Gate one this time and if there's an upset it could be her. 1. Antonio Giovanni is a well related colt on debut, a half brother to Press Statement, and he stretched out well to win a trial at Rosehill earlier this month. Respect the Waller/McDonald combination and betting a good pointer.
How to play it: Willowy WIN ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 2 - 2:00PM 1ST CROP MAGNA GRECIA FOALS PLATE (1100 METRES)
7. I Am Brazen trialled very well before her debut where she was slowly out and found herself last. Beaten only two lengths in a slowly run race so the run wasn't bad and she was well supported there too. Give another chance.
Dangers: 10. Lady Piaf is another first starter for the Waller/McDonald combination and she's trialled a number of times this year, winning the latest from the front at Rosehill on September 3. Drawn well so will have her chance to feature. 12. Mayrose was very green on debut but hit the line strongly then seemed to have her chance late when runner-up again at Goulburn. Well fancied at both starts and has gate one this time so interesting to see where she lands and is worth respecting. 8. Lady Fraulein won a Gosford trial in early July and hasn't been seen since a close third in a Warwick Farm heat on July 23. In top stable and drawn okay so is one to keep an eye on in a winnable race.
How to play it: I Am Brazen E/W ($5.00 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 3 - 2:35PM BUY @ IRISH SALES ONLINE HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
3. Dream Runner jumped from this trip to 2400m last start and wasn't disgraced in third place. His two runs at this trip prior were excellent and he gets back onto a soft track which is a big plus. Good chance to bounce back.
Dangers: 4. Shibli backs up after being run down by stablemate Solar Apex at Gosford last week. He did make a midrace move there and was second-up. Well worth another chance. 6. Khaalis was almost four weeks between runs when second-up at Gosford last week and he finished a close fourth. Note some support there too so was expected to run well and could be harder to beat this time. 1. California Longbow produced a nice effort here first-up then sound enough second-up at a mile where he held his ground. An extra 200m a plus and is back in class on those runs. Can show up.
How to play it: Dream Runner E/W ($6.50 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 4 - 3:10PM ADMIRE MARS AT ARROWFIELD HANDICAP (1550 METRES)
6. Ita is racing in career best form and taking big steps, no reason she can't take another one here. Dominant at Bathurst then handled the class rise nicely at Wyong. Drawn well, handles all conditions and hard to beat.
Dangers: 7. Crazy Train is another lightly raced mare racing well and is also a last start Wyong winner over a mile. Comes through a good form race at Kembla before that and no surprise to see her measure up. 3. Jojo Was A Man is fitter for two runs back from a spell and worked home without threatening second-up at 1300m. The rise in distance could be the key to him so he stays under notice. 4. Mightybeel hasn't done a lot wrong in six starts so far and is a big watch first-up. Recent trial was on the synthetic but he stretched out to win it easily. Has to be considered.
How to play it: Ita WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 5 - 3:45PM TAB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
6. Promise Of Success is back for her second prep with John O'Shea and she showed a heap of talent in three runs in the winter. Produced a huge finish to miss narrowly over this course back in July and if the pattern is fair she will take holding out.
Dangers: 4. Calgary Queen was well supported first-up and got the job done leading all the way at 1250m here three weeks ago on a heavy track. Up 2kg but draws to be prominent and she does look above average. Go well. Read trainer Brad Widdup's comments here. 5. French Bonnet won three of her six starts in her first prep and based on her trials she looks to have come back in good order. The 1300m fresh suits and she's not to be underestimated. 8. Found Our Thrill is an interesting runner back from a Victorian campaign. Game when runner-up at Sandown two starts ago and she could give some cheek on the pace.
How to play it: Promise Of Success WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: EVENS.
Race 6 - 4:20PM EARTHLIGHT @ DARLEY HANDICAP (1150 METRES)
6. Juan Diva showed she's come back in good order with a dynamic trial win recently. She was sound fresh last prep before having no luck at all when heavily backed at Hawkesbury in April. Beaten1 3 lengths but should have gone close. Commands respect.
Dangers: 5. Torun has the wide gate to contend with but barrier three didn't afford him any luck when beaten first-up at Wyong. We'll never know if he'd have won that but he certainly wasn't able to be tested. Needs some luck of course but big threat. 1. I Say Hello was outclassed in The Coast back in May but her form prior included a Group 3 placing and a couple of impressive wins. Nice recent trial and she's one of the main chances. 9. Overmann has shown promise and returns after finishing down the track in the G1 JJ Atkins. Was shaping up okay before that and is a market watch fresh.
How to play it: Juan Diva WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: SPLIT.
Race 7 - 4:55PM HEINEKEN HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
3. Promotions hasn't won for a while but this is his best chance in some time coming back in class of a couple of solid Saturday company performances. Chased Kingsheir two starts back then close up behind Madam Legend last time. Drawn well, handles all conditions. Go close.
Dangers: 7. Super Contender loomed up to win when resuming here two weeks ago and was just outpointed late. Fitter for that, will need a bit of luck from the wide alley but off that encouraging return he's right in this. 9. Sequana has been sound in two runs back from a spell and just relies on a fair pattern and a bit of luck from the barrier. One of the main hopes. 10. Obvious Step had a bit of specking at odds when resuming in what was a strong Midway at Kembla recently. Fitter for that and while she can be hit and miss she's not to be overlooked here.
How to play it: Promotions WIN ($5.50 TAB Fixed Odds); Odds & Evens: ODDS.
