3 minute read

As a form analyst, there is no greater pressure than the three weeks before Christmas, I mean how else are you suppose to pay for presents.

Saturday's card at Rosehill presents a few key betting opportunities and while playing at the top end of the market, still feel there is a decent edge there.

In the opening event the Bjorn Baker trained Hinchbeast has been installed the $2.80 favourite and while there are five first starters engaged, more than happy to bet up, have him marked odds-on.

Kicking off his career with a win at this C&D, Hinchbeast simply overdid it in front, 28.48 for the first 500m (17.6m/s from a standing start), home 35.40 (16.9m/s).

Entitled to tire late, he still returned a time figure of 100, a more than above average 2YO for this time of year.

To place that into perspective, second favourite Farnan returned a time figure of 88 on debut, while Mrs Maisel returned a time figure of 71.

Always a bit tricky when you are working with such few data points, but given the edge Hinchbeast holds after one start, it's hard not to be firmly in his corner.

Concede they are all open to improvement, however it is a fair mountain to climb if they are to beat Hinchbeast.

From the inside draw he should lead for Bowman and if able to run his race more efficiently, he is sure to take a power of beating.

In the final event, sticking with Hugh Bowman and the Team Hawkes trained Outrageous.

An impressive winner two back, he simply had no luck at Newcastle last start and should be right at his peak racing fourth up.

While only possessing three wins to his name, he is Group 1 placed (Sires' Produce) and is very well treated in this grade.

Jockey switches are one of the many key pointers when doing your form and none bigger than tomorrow with Bowman on, Brock Ryan off (no disrespect to Brock).

From the inside draw he looks to get a lovely trail behind expected leader Murillo and with even luck, he simply should be too good.

The scratching of Yulong January has seen him tighten up this morning, but this looks a lot weaker than last start where he started $3.50 and now you get Bowman, so happy to take that price.

Simon Dinopoulos' Three Tips:

Race 1 #1 Hinchbeast @ $2.80

Race 6 #7 Handspun @ $5.50

Race 9 #4 Outrageous @ $2.50