3 minute read
The Rupert Clarke is invariably one of the best betting puzzles of the racing season and things are no different in 2021.
Last year's winner Behemoth lines up to defend his title having done just that in the Memsie last time. Much will be made of the fact that he carries a kilo less this time around. The task must be easier! Alas, no, the minimum is two kilos lower and there is a bigger hurdle in the race in the form of Probabeel.
Behemoth has a dozen direct head-to-head clashes among Saturday's rivals to study in the form book. He has won eleven of them. The one that knocked him off; Probabeel.
From Timeform's recap of the Memsie: "Ignoring her debut, Probabeel's fresh form reads: 107-104-113-113-110 and she has followed those runs with three wins, two at Group One level, and ratings of: 113-111-115-122-?"
That 122 came last prep, second up over the Caulfield 1400m in the Futurity, with Behemoth in behind. She improved lengths from one run to the next, sweet splits toying with Group Three mares quickly became a genuine Group One performance.
A similar pattern here makes her the one to beat in our view and a good bet (in fact we will label her our bet of the day) at prices that are verging on 'each-way odds'.
Beau Rossa is sure to be thrown up as the 'weight horse' against Behemoth and that title is neither unfair or untrue. There has been very little between them in two runs this time in and he does catch Behemoth on good terms this time and with more obvious upside.
He may not have the same upside as fellow four-year-old I'm Thunderstruck who looks very dangerous from a ratings perspective but needs first to get a run in the race (currently the emergency) and then to overcome a very awkward draw over the Caulfield 1400m. He's on going the right way, and I'm tipping races at this level are within his range in time, but it might be a big ask for him in the spot he lands on Saturday.
Annavisto rules the early betting in race six on the card for the mares. She jumps off the page a bit having returned in good style behind Turaath. A fast time and the winner having won again since mean making a case for her is fairly straightforward.
Her edge isn't huge though, and it's a deep and interesting race away with her, with one in particular appealing as a good each-way gamble against the fave; the Peter Moody-trained Snickerdoodledandy.
She comes through the same race as our Rupert Clarke fancy, Probabeel, and there she was never in a position to get involved, settling last from barrier one which means one thing - traffic.
Things are different this time. She gets away from barrier one and should surely see some fresh air from there under man of the moment Brett Prebble.
Her two 1400m runs for this stable were both high-rating efforts with the most recent of those a win courtesy of some fairly dynamic late splits.
That wins says she is about good enough to knock this off. If you can get $9.00 we're saying, take $9.00.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 8 #2 Probabeel @ $5.50
Each Way Play: Race 6 #7 Snickerdoodledandy @ $9.00
