3 minute read
With the Mornington Cup meeting on Saturday this week's metro fare in Melbourne takes place on Friday night at the Valley with the running of the William Reid.
The Valley card is a cracker with deep betting heats throughout, including the feature where an inside draw and the memories of a traffic jam in the Manikato has left the task looking slightly trickier for Newmarket winner Bivouac .
Bivouac's topline talent, which was on full display in the Newmarket, makes him the starting point and the inside barrier, for all of the horror stories that punters like to swap, is a blessing at least as often as it isn't.
But this game is about odds and, after better than 6-1 was bet in the Newmarket, bookmakers are giving nothing away in regards to Bivouac in the early markets with prices below $2.50.
Exceedance in the meantime is now trading (albeit for small sums early doors) out where Bivouac was sent off in the Newmarket after he was extremely well backed to SP $3.30 at Flemington.
He was unconvincing there but was never really put into the race and we know that, like Bivouac, he has the topline talent required to win a race like this.
He will no doubt be ridden conservatively again - having won that way early in his career stamped his papers "backmarker" and it seems he is now doomed to a life of doing things the hard way - but with the rail in the true and the pace expected to set up a best-horse-wins scenario he is worth backing at current prices.
For an each way play we go back to race two which shapes as a terrific contest.
We are a long way back from the three-year-olds in the William Reid but we are still dealing with some really promising horses and one of them looks overpriced in our book - Star Surprise .
There are half a dozen here that look well up to winning races at this level, and perhaps a few more sleepers, but Star Surprise has established ratings at the level with his winning burst to win at Pakenham first up this time around still fresh in the memory.
He was set a mighty task going straight to 1400m at the Gold Coast on the back of that, a task that got all the more difficult when he missed the kick hopelessly, but he got himself back on track at Flemington last time in a good race and that has him nicely set up to hit his peak on Friday at the Valley which should see him right in the finish.
The likes of Ocular and Dirty Work have produced ratings that have them firmly on the radar but it's the double figure prices about Star Surprise that have our interest and he looks one to keep on side at those sort of quotes.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 7 #10 Exceedance @ $7.00
Each Way Play: Race 2 #2 Star Surprise @ $11.00
