3 minute read

Everyone has their way of doing the form, some factors weighted more than others, one I feel that is very important is jockey switches.

You can learn a lot from a stable simply by who they have booked to ride, especially if a horse is first up.

If a stable has targeted a certain race fresh, they will often seek out a top-end jockey, if it is more of a starting point, they are less likely to do so.

It also helps when sorting out if a stable has multiple runners in a race, more often than not you can rank them by their jockey booking.

While this isn't an exact science and there will always be an exception to the rule, for the most part it is a good guide.

One key switch on Saturday is with the Chris Waller trained True Detective.

An eye catcher late in the Arrowfield Sprint last start, leading rider James McDonald now legs back aboard.

From 722 rides, McDonald is striking at 19% when combined with the Waller stable, including 11 Gr.1 wins.

This season he has ridden the most winners for the Waller (38) and from the outside looking in, he is top dog, the hired gun.

While some may question the desire of True Detective, his form this time in has been rock solid.

He arguably should have beaten Pandemic first up (0.7L), ran into Rubisaki second up (3rd - 1.7L), before he simply got run of his feet in the Fireball (he isn't fast enough over 1100m).

Ridden out the back in the Arrowfield he closed off well and is sure to appreciate the step up in trip.

From the inside draw it should allow him to be more positive and under the handicap conditions, he appears very well placed.

The firmer track is another tick and with even luck, he should prove hard to beat.

The John Thompson trained Grand Piano has come a long way in a short period and is another who appears well placed back in grade on Saturday.

Due to contest the third event, Grand Piano stuck on well in the Carbine Club last start and appears better suited back on top of the ground.

While yet to win on a good track (3:0-1), his best time figure came on a good track behind Rule The World.

You'd also struggle to find a Japanese bred horse that is considered better with the sting out, his record may suggest as much now, but I'd say it's more to do with the lack of opportunity.

The wide draw keeps him out of trouble and should allow him to get into the running line (fingers crossed).

Winning rider Nash Rawiller legs back aboard and love the set up back to 1500m.

Confident he is the best horse in the race and should take some beating.

Simon Dinopoulos' Three Tips:

Race 3 #10 Grand Piano @ $3.80

Race 6 #3 Eleven Eleven @ $8.00

Race 8 #6 True Detective @ $3.80