3 minute read

We return to Rosehill on Saturday in what shapes as a highly competitive Winter card.

Of the nine races only two favourites are marked inside 2-1 (Wu Gok & Adelong), both handy last start winners, but I'll be surprised if they hold their place in the market, expect both to get out.

Such is the case most weeks if you do like to play the top end of the market, there really is no rush to bet early, unless of course you manage to snipe a good price when markets open.

Though the likelihood of you getting a "good price" seems to be getting harder and harder.

You give up a lot by betting early and hence you should be getting a better price, I find myself betting early less and less now.

Though one race I am keen to bet early is the seventh, with the Brad Widdup trained Adelong the early favourite.

While she has been good to us, I think it is time to oppose her as she looks under the odds.

Close to 90% of the early market have faced off at their last two starts, Adelong and Lashes met two back (2.5L), with now a 6kg swing in Lashes favour.

Adelong beat home Superium (1.2L) and Broken Arrows (0.5L) last start with now a 3kg & 2.5kg weight swing in their favour.

Obviously respect winning form, but there is little deal between the four on the bare form and hence Adelong faces an uphill battle giving weight away.

Timeform Ratings
Superium - 105
Lashes - 99
Adelong - 97
Broken Arrows - 97

Superium is the best performed and did enough fresh when just peaking on his run late. Should improve sharply off that and has drawn to get a lovely run.

Lashes already has a win over Adelong in the book and certainly gets her chance at the weights, like her kept fresh (28 days) and she has trialled well in the lead up, they look the two.

In the fifth event the Jason Coyle trained Mo's Crown appears well placed to go back to back.

Taking full advantage of a positive ride last start, Mo's Crown proved too strong on-speed and ran good figures in the process.

He continued his affinity with wet tracks and has drawn to get a lovely run for James McDonald.

Away from Rari, who is likely to be better for the run having only had one soft trial, he looks to hold a clear edge over his rivals.

Do expect Switched to improve second up, but the jump from 1000m to 1200m is never easy and she has bit to find if Mo's Crown can hold his form.

Better than 2-1 is being offered about his chances which I feel is a more than worthy gamble, I have him marked the most likely winner on the card.

Simon Dinopoulos' Three Tips:

Race 3 #1 Bound To Win @ $3.80

Race 5 #4 Mo's Crown @ $3.20

Race 7 #11 Superium @ $7.50 & #10 Lashes @ $4.00