3 minute read
The Caulfield Cup Carnival kicks off with Guineas Day, one of the best of the year, and it's a belter in 2020.
The Guineas themselves have held up really well, big fields and both the colts and fillies heats have a good mix of established stars and improvers for the future, but it's the other mile on the card that brings about our best bet of the day - Buffalo River.
Buffalo River heads early betting for the Toorak and we think with good reason. He won't win it on the strength of his first up rating but it might be the perfect means to a profitable end.
The tactics over the 1400m fresh were too cute for Buffalo River to show his best having been much better served by more genuine tests to date. He was beaten in a battle of late speed by the talented Windstorm having set a sedate tempo there but it may be the loss that wins him the Toorak, not just because it sees him escape the handicapper (who leaves him very well treated against a couple of key dangers) but also because it should leave him fresh as a daisy and ready to fire in the race he has been pointed at.
There's little doubt that the pressure will be on throughout this time and Buffalo River looks perfectly placed to thrive on that now and can make good on prices around 3/1 (every chance better is bet is such a competitive heat).
Chief Ironside got a nice long look in regards to our each way play as another well equipped for high-pressure miling (anyone talking you out of taking 20/1+ there is no true friend...) but instead we are going to throw one up in the 1000 Guineas away from the big guns at the top.
Those 'big guns' are Hungry Heart, who deserves to be favourite off a fast Flight Stakes, and Instant Celebrity who proved too strong in the Prelude around here over 1400m.
That Prelude was a high-pressure race and Instant Celebrity ended up well positioned in the run. She won with authority but looked to be finishing faster than she was with none of them screaming "get me to the mile".
That leaves the fresher legs of Aidensfield field looking like a nice chance to get involved having looked all over a miler when finishing with gusto in the Jim Moloney. She was the best filly in that race all things considered, and while that's still a ways of making her the best filly in this race (She has a Timeform rating of 102p v Hungry Heart who tops the ratings at 113), she does look a good gamble at 12/1 and better in places.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 9 #15 Buffalo River @ $4.00
Each Way Play: Race 7 #7 Aidensfield @ $13.00
