3 minute read
The track condition at Rosehill is up in the air for Saturday with reports varying from a Soft 7 to a Heavy 9.
Always like to remain positive in these situations and hopeful we do get to race on a soft track.
If we do nudge into that heavy range, we are likely to see a fair few scratchings including the favourite in the last Intrepidacious.
Also throws another spanner in the works for the Golden Gift with a heavy track being a complete unknown.
Captivant brings the best piece of form into that event, though a fast 1000m at Randwick is very different to a Heavy 1100m at Rosehill.
The market will be telling there as it generally gets in pretty right with horses yet to see a wet track.
In the opener the Adrian McGregor trained Approach Discreet presents a good betting opportunity with the current market headed by questionable form.
Parry Sound didn't improve an inch when winning at Randwick (K) last start, but still rises 2kg (OHR 71 > 75) and steps up in grade.
Is well set up having already had that run at 2400m, but looks well found early.
Second favourite He Runs Away has never fired on a heavy track and brings suspect form (albeit winning form) down from Queensland.
We have him running up to a mark of 71 OHR last start, but finds himself off a mark of 74 on Saturday.
Much like Parry Sound, he needs to improve to win again and has to do it against better opposition.
That leaves Approach Discreet who closed off well behind Archanna last weekend, boasting the best last start rating.
On trial at the trip, but gives the impression he will be even better at 2400m and has the much in-form Jason Collett aboard (22% S/R L50).
The map is the query as he is likely to settle towards the rear in a race with not a lot of obvious speed on paper, but if Collett can get him into the race early, confident he can get home over the top of them.
Have him marked favourite and more than happy to bet up at the $6 on offer.
The Group 2 Hot Danish Stakes has 6/12 coming through the Nivison won narrowly by Positive Peace.
She is clearly the weight horse out of the event and it's hard to see her rivals turning the tables, though what if that form is no good.
The James Cummings trained Savatiano won't want it heavy, but she is at her best when fresh and has a lap on these if right.
Seven of her 10 career wins have come first or second up and this looks a reboot after losing her way the last two.
Her win first up in the PB Lawrence leaves her very well placed and if able to get back to that form on Saturday, she should be winning.
Simon Dinopoulos' Three Tips:
Race 1 #1 Approach Discreet @ $6.50
Race 7 #1 Savatiano @ $5.50
Race 9 #3 Intrepidacious @ $3.50
