3 minute read

The Cup Carnival is behind us but there are more Cups on the way. We swing into the summer months via Cranbourne, Ballarat and Pakenham.

The updated version of the Cranbourne Cup, pushed to the back of the spring and down to a mile, seems a winner looking at the Cup field. It's some sort of puzzle for punters, and is sure to prove a good betting heat, but despite that our two plays come elsewhere. 

This time of the season is always something of a transition. Those hanging about at the back of the spring clash with the fresh summer form and that can provide punters with some headaches. Are the better performed horses on the way out, and vulnerable to fresher legs, or does the established form prevail? 

This question comes up in race three (among others races) at Cranbourne on Saturday; the top three have been bouncing through the spring, as have a couple of others, while a few hit the race second and third up and ready to peak into the summer. 

We're betting the answer on this occasion is that the established form wins out, with topweight Scissor Step the one that we are keen to back after he chased a handy one around the Valley on Cox Plate Day last time. That rating goes a long way to winning this, it certainly asks big questions of the summer hopefuls, and Damian Lane isn't a bad jock to find around Cranbourne where he knocks them in at 21%. 

The Ellerton and Zahra training team is also well worth finding at this time of year - the summer specialists!  

We're hoping that old wisdom holds true as we find them again for our each-way play which comes up in the last. 

High 'n' Dry was a second-up winner (and twice a winner over the summer for the specialists) 12 months ago and his return said that he has come back at least as well, perhaps even better, this time around. 

It is some query that he stays at 1300m second up, having been best at a mile in the past, but he looks like getting a good pace to run at on Saturday and he may only have to hold his form second up to be a terrific chance or at least better than a $9.00 chance. 

That early price undersells him and his chances at this trip in our view and we are happy to have him running for us. 

THE MELBOURNE MAIL 

Bet Of The Day: Race 3 #1 Scissor Step @ $3.00

Each Way Play: Race 9 #4 High 'n' Dry @ $9.00