2020 Best Bets & Ruffies

Todman

interest has all but disappeared in the tipping type threads - probably the lack of success in the 2nd half of last year did not help.

I thought I would combine the 2 threads for 2020, and posters could list the tip as either a BB or R(uffie)

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syd-7 no2 catalyst

mr4 from within might hold on

mr5 the closer

mr8 achernar star hope it jumps well

bri race 6 beaufort parf

ar6 poysed to win

ar7 rakovsky

if rakovsky does well 

star of monsoon ad last race

good punting

Best Bet SR 6 Imaging

Those ruffies should read

SR7 Splintex

SR8 Girl Tuesday

A few hopefully winners and some ruffies today.

SR1 Partners EW

SR3 H7 Matowi close to a win.

SR7 Classique legend Good price F/U and good record FU.

SR5 H12 CUBA  Good for place and exotics.

SR8 Mustajeer to place at odds.

MR4 H8 Excess Funds EW.

Achernar Star to place in the Rupert Clarke, may even win.   Good luck, The Pig.

For exotics...

SR6 Splintex

SR7 Girl Tuesday

MR5 Clarice Cliffs

MR7 Dabiyr

MR8 Begood Toya Mother

BR9 Flying Machine

3 for Newcastle today

 

R4 Itz Invincible

R5 Quackerjack

R6 Sweet Thomas

SR1 Lord Fandango - pity only 7 in race

AR5 Mullaghamore

Sr3 yonker

sr7 riodini

mr8 wisdom of water

mr9 september run

ar3 unabounded

ar9 viduka

and good rouffie

ar8 extreme thrill

been doing ok on ruffies, just posting the wrong ones

Two today for ruffie plays and exotics.

MR 9 H 1 MILDRED good first up runs, loves the course and rain no problem. follow now.

SR9 H13 AMITTO. Forgive last run when no luck. fitter now up in class, less weight, any rain will help.

I am on now 10 X 30 on both. May all up place them. Cheers the Pig.

The Inevitable a solid each way chance. Goes well first-up and at Flemington; not too much weight for a small horse and handles all conditions. Going very well according to the stable.

Around $6.50

denarius last in brissy

2 for today

MR4 Well Sprung - got $46 & $7 last night with $0.02 deduction - a good place chance at least

MR8 Sweet Snitty - got $201 & $31 last night with $0.12 deduction - 2nd up form is sound although his 1st up run was poor, hence the big price - needs to get to lead or behind leader from start, without spending too much gas

mel r2 reward with return

mel r5 northwest passage

mel r6 dollar for dollar

good punting

SR1 Freehearted

SR6 Sophiella

SR9 Kubrick

MR4 Reykjavic

 

 

scone race 1 our charlie girl

great tipping hinks - pity I was helping my daughter shift house - never got the opportunity to check

Well done Hinksy with Roland Garros

took the 61/s

Dabiyr mr9

Roland garros  mr4

br5 missed the alarm

br6 wild fortune

good punting

once again I am having a go at Morendi in BR2

BR4 Napoleon Solo - could be a really good bet although only 2nd up, the dry track suits

BR5 Alpine Dancer

MR7 Columbia

SR8 Invictus Prince - a gonna horse but did go extra well in recent barrier trial

Cheers Tod, wish I had gone the SP of $21 instead of early fixed $14, but happy. 

Belmont

R8- 3 Little Fish ($12)

Randwick

R7- 8 Niccanova ($27)

Moonee Valley

R5- 13 Antagoniser ($6)

R7- 13 Yeldarb ($61)

R9- 15 Chortomic ($15)

 

good effort with Junction, Ram

Caulfield

R9- East Indiaman

Eagle Farm

R7- Junction

Randwick

R9- Esteem Spirit

bris race 6 simply fly great run last start

bris race 9 redex

adel race 6 lissette

syd race 2 northern wlderose

syd 4 willorose

mel race1 ruby skye

happy punting

sydo race 9 Ljunberg

brissy race 3 parko

mel race 7 dogmatic

ad r6 white heath

ad last race splash  some cash

good luck and good punting

haven't really posted for yonks - let's hope it is famine to feast

BR5 Morendi

BR7 My Guiliano - $61 & $13 currently - the soft track, distance & Doomben stats are in his favour but has not won for 100 weeks

BR8 Malvern Estate - with a better draw, he would be an EW special

SR3 Senatorial 

SR5 Shangani Patrol - hoping he gets an easy lead and with the light weight, be strong at the end

SR8 Exceltic - probably cannot beat the fave 

MR1 Home By Midnight - the soft track is the key

MR5 Man From Uncle

MR9 Sunday Pray - the top 2 should get an easy time in front - Sunday Pray has'nt won for over a year, but is way down in class

not much notice

BR6 DARK EURO

having a bit of a downer with my tips here, but doing ok overall, so i guess ya don't back these ruffies

mel r5 brimm

br7 cabalo escuro

br9 eljetem

ad r7 coffee amour

sr 7 salad dodger

good punting

 

better luck this week

br8 no 16 the demtel man I don't mind Les kelly as a trainer of wet track horses

ad race 9 miami freedom

syd 6 no 11 tickler good place as is 

mel race 5 no 14 quality diamond

good punting

 

SR9 Assault'n'Bathory - Kenso already showing leader bias and not much pace here, claimer gets a soft lead from 7 with no weight and might pinch it @ $21

SR8 High Low Bet

MR8 Smokin' Pierro

sr 4 itz lily

mr4 she's on time

mr6 rapid romance

mel 8 sir pippin

adr 8 sono dolce

br6 champagne daisy

br7 i dream of green

br 8 scout

br9 amicitia

good punting

bad barista sunny coast race 1

celtic blast ad race 7

leale mel r5

simply fly toowomba rac5

nothing real ruff, except sorta like elite drake mel r3 if it's on song i'm having a fiver on it who knows

good punting

Nice work on Euro Belle Hinsky!  $41 on Betfair.

Euro belle d/h first @ $31 and $5.50. Looked like it won. 

adel race 4 outpost

adel race 6 tappin thomas

mel race 9 brazen song

brissy race 5 real fine wine

brissy r7 euro belle

good punting

Great story Hinksy.

I watched the race and Flow seemed to flare out it's nostril at the right time to get the win.

Thanks for the heads up on Flow euraman, don't normally look at WA. few of the boys backed it down the local when I pointed it out that rain was about, My mate had 50 e/w on it, so big win for him, he bought a round of beers for the boys and slipped 100 in to my pocket. Another had 20 e/w and he's going to top me up today when i get back down to the club. had an alright day myself though tips below did crap. cheers

Good on you Todman. Happy that I finally tipped a ruffie.

Euraman, you are a star - got me out of trouble today - thanks mate

brazen song mel r8

acumen mel r6

krone br8

our top shelf br 9

swanytoff ad r6

atomic wizard ad r9

romani girl sr 7

gopod punting

MR2 PARLIAMENT

Roughie: Saturday 27/6/20 Belmont Race 7 no2 Flow raced wide last start, if the rain comes, is 1:1 on Heavy.

good luck

mel r9 lord von costa

mel r5 the last napoleon

mel r2 maui

ad race6 nasifa

ad race 8 give me a dollar

good punting

Today at Ballarat

R9 - My Paisann - $67 & $16 - obviously this horse has had issues, given it only has had 3 starts in the last 2 years. He will probably need the run, but his effort 9 weeks ago, was ok and he is down in class & weight, plus up in distance. The soft track may be a bonus if he had leg or hoof issues. The price is worth having a stab, or you could wait till closer to the race, and see if the price holds, shortens, or blows out, as it did last start. If it shortens, double your bet EW

 

brissy race 3 canapes

mel race 9 she's a thief

ad race 5 air marshal

syddo race 3 high low bet

brissy race 9 paint the town two

good punting

MR3 Andrea Mantegna - $61 ($101 powered) & $14 on Sportsbet - he has some really good stats 2nd up and the claim brings him in with a nice weaight - his best 2nd up at this distance, wins this easily but near his best may be good enough

I backed Persan

my ruffies are

AR8 Equus D'oro

SR7 Care To Think

MR7 Savaheat

MR9 l'il Kontra 

mel 3 persan

mel8 romancer

mel 9 barbies fox

ad 7 frances boy

ad 8 beeokay

syd 4 re edit

syd 5 monte ditto

syd 6 slow burn

good punting

Good tipping Hinksy, (2 wins 2 places).

bris 9 teleplay

br 6 scallopini

m3 dubai dominion

s8 irish songs

s6 bound to win

s4 sure knee

s3 van giz

putting them in a multi place pays over 1k

good punting

 

Yeah Todman, ran again Wednesday, poor run also. 

MR3- Jesta Dreamer

MR8- Lims Lightning

BR9- Teleplay

Kembla 6- Willy Wilson

I liked Dandre also, but he went poorly

Poor effort by me, was going to crawl back under my rock, but I like one on Sunday. Keeping that rock warm for after tomorrow.

MR5- Dandre $26... Usually takes a few races to warm up (3rd up today), likes the distance (2088m on heavy win - 2100 today... & a 2040 MV win on soft), ran within 2L of Influential Girl on heavy 1st up this prep. Think he might be a one hit per prep horse, and seems like the new trainer is hoping (like me), this is the race.

 

Know the feeling Hinksy. Well done the other day Todman.

BR7 - Sky Horse  $10

MR9 - Mockery  $21

not good on the ruffies last week, seems whenever i put them up they fail, so here are a few more fails

mr7 arctic shock

sr2 invictus prince

sr7 he's supercool

godd punting

MR1 Blandford Lad - $26 & $6.50

MR3 Tubby Two Tacks - $23 & $6

MR4 Moor Wanted - $23 & $5 - also a buck EW on Oberland - maybe the stable change will spark him up - should get $101 but currently $81 & $16

MR7 Pour Vous - not really a wet tracker and looking for more ground, but the new trainer got the best out of him last prep and he scored 2nd up - $201 & $30 - probably next start but worth a few bucks as a speculator

Yes it was an awesome effort by Todman yet again. 

Actually find the forum hard to keep an eye on since the change and i know this thread description talks about loss of interest, but did notice the tips the other day from Todman and that has picked my interest back up

Watched the first one romp home while i was bored as batshit in a Teams meeting at work, and then the $91 shot lobbing for 2nd is some pretty good picking out of value runners

awesome work - hope we can fire it up further

 

thanks

I have 4 horses for Ballarat - heavy 8

MR1 Fortune Ahead $15 & $4.20

MR4 Ocean Drive $17 & $4.60

MR6 Bee Tee Junior $46 & $12 - this is a throw at the stumps - I got $71 enhanced odds - his NZ form on heavy tracks is superb - admittedly some are over hurdles but the 2000m 2nd up, should suit and his 1st up run in stronger company, was solid

BEST BET

MR7 Lucky Wick - $9 - I got $18 when betting opened as the track was only a soft 5 - she will relish the heavy track - instead of each way, take her in  an exacta with the fave on top, or even a quinella 

 

like the golden hind br3 no 11 may need it a bit further but not waiting, today is the day. Good ruffie br9 no 12 ice frost. this horse is due for a win

Romani girl sr8 no 12 might run well fresh in this company

blaze forth mr8 no8 it'll settle better, i actually think dunn will get the winners in races 6-7-8

walking flying ar6 no 17 this horse has been unlucky

amberdi ar8 no 14 needs a clear run

good punting

 

BR7 #12 Miss Gem  Price at $150 on Betfair

adelaide race 6 no 4 journica due for its second win today

Good one Todman. Had 20 on for the place. I have 50 place @$11 on Street Icon. Great job! Got any more? The Pig.

A ruffie for exotics in Adelaide AR8H13  Street Icon.Place for me @ $10. Also watch out for Realm of Flowers when she steps out next. Any price for me. Cheers, The Pig.

AR8 Everyday Lady

MR4 Flying Sardine

MR5 Obedience

MR8 Labuan Star

SR5 Isorich - the more they win .....

best bet

BR9 Mewstone Rock EW

MR4 - Vividredsky e/w $91/21

MR6 - Wahine Toa $34

SR6 - St Covets Spirit $15

best bet

MR8 Kaonic EW - $14 & $4.20

 

Ruffies

MR5 Independant Road - $31 & $8

AR7 I Am Impinge - $27 & $7

SR2 Mr Wong $11 & $3.50

 

I'll open the batting on ANZAC Day wit a place tip on Morphettville Race 9 no. 5 Themoonlitegambler.

good punting everyone.

 

 

 

deep image sr8 no 12

MR7 Snitzkraft - has had excuses at a few of his runs this prep - @ $91 & $26, just had to have a flurry

MY BEST RUFFIE

SR7 Yogi - his improvement at his 4th start this prep, was good enough to give him a top chance with 3.5kgs less

SR4 - Chianti

SR7- Sweet Thomas

SR9 - Miss Siska

MR4 - Barthelona

 

 

2 early best bets - the price too good to ignore

MR7 Scarlet Dream - $8 - a huge run 1st up

BR6 Jeweliana - $8.50 - should have troubled the placegetters last run - had an easy run - quick backup

 

Ruffies

MR3 Regardsmaree $26

MR8 Haunted - $12 - but for the wide alley, would be a best bet

 

ruffies

SR3 Sky Call

SR5 House Of Cartier

SR6 Dismissal

SR7 Chains Of Honour

 

BR3 Thrasher

BR4 Phoenix Raider

BR8 Sabkat

Not so sure about this dowgrade now but how and ever

SR5 - Gayatri

SR7 - Quick Thinker

SR 8 - Pierata

Roughies

SR4 - Maia Nebula

SR6 - Cultural Amnesia

SR9 - Imaging (Cascadian if we get an upgrade to the Slow range)

MR7 - Star Surprise

SR7 - Fascino

BR6 - Kitty Damour

BR9 Miss Penfold - at $61 & $10, IT SEEMS TOO BIG OF A PRICE BUT ....

Southern France. SR

Sweet Scandal.    SR8

Southern France best roughie - currently $15. Favourite too short, Avilius disappointing last start. The rest are fairly even.

At his best will go close. Take your chances.

Todman is back! Saw your post too late. It wasn't missed in the betting paying 16 on UNI BET' I hope you plonked early. Cheers, The Pig.

SR9 Miss Exfactor - $41 & $10

SR8 H14 Anaheed is the best place bet for a long time. 100 the place for me. Cheers The Pig.

SR8 - I Am Excited

SR3 - Mrs Madrid

SR9 - Stellar Sea Sun

I should have made by roughies the lays and my lay the best bet.

Once the rain came and the scratchings I knew I would be in trouble.

If the races aren't cancelled I think Mountain Breath is a great bet mid week in Melbourne.

Three in Sydney for places or exotics.

SR4  DIPLOMATICO. Goes well F/U, Likes soft tracks and specked.

SR8 Delectation Girl. Hugh run at Newcastle last start and light weight. 

Life less Ordinary to run well too.

SR3 Kakaak Akit should lead all the way,but no fancy price . Good luck. The Pig.

 

found another

BR8 In His Stride - he rarely trials, but puts in a big one next start - the wet track is the bonus

real fine wine nice run at dalby br5 no5

ready to roambris r7 no 5

tailevent last race brissy no7

thats all folk good punting

 

I think these two are rough but worth an each way bet;

Sydney Race 7: Sweet Scandal

Sydney Race 9: Love Shack Baby

Lay of the Day: Master of Wine.

MR1 Snitzepeg - at $31 ($46 power boosted) & $5, this is my one and only for the day - he doesn't win often nor does CW ride him often - the mile 2nd up in a BM80, gives him a top chance at great odds

MR3 Yourdeel - upwards of 40's - forgiving last prep 

MR8 - Constantinople - forgive 1st up - could be the best horse in field

SR7 Prince Fawaz - 50's - was supposedly trialing better but 1st up was ordinary 

a few best bets

MR4 Spanish Reef

MR7 Rubisaki

bris race 6 no 4 barbados storm, if he looks fit at the barrier and is not carrying over his injury from last time. He shouldna run that day

SR7 Come Play With Me - they just don't win at these prices - $251 & $51 but had a few bucks EW - he has not been targetted at mile races, but has gone ok at this distance as a younger horse

i'm not having a bad trot with my ruffies and best bets, just putting the wrong ones up. Wanted by all Ar7 no 1. Might go a duet with yours todman as i like lady salerno in br1

tht'll do 

good punting

MR2 Chouxting The Mob

MR9 Oberland

BR1 Dark Image - huge odds

BR2 Saddler's Lake

BR5 Sony Legend - huge odds

BR9 No Annamossity - $19 seems overs

two weeks ago i tipped the holy one to win at Caulfield. It didn't jump well but I liked its run so am backing it up with jay ford on him sr 7 no 9..Has won at 1600 so the very wet 1400 should suit him today. the toppy the danger of course

I gotta nell has a very light weight br6 no 11 should get a place at least. I feel a good day coming on

good punting

think Lostarc ad race 4 no 4 can take out that race.

Good move re amalgamation Todman.

Best Bet - Bivouac. Goes well first up, barrier, trainer, overall form and class, jockey goes alright. Can't see it not being in the finish. Price doesn't want to get any shorter though.

Good luck all.

 

 

 

By no means rough but worth a spec in BR3 tomorrow is Adelaide gelding EMPIRE GAMES. Thought his 2nd career start a few weeks ago was exceptional, coming from what must have been 15L last at the 700 - see video link below from this site for full replay. It was a Sunday at Caloundra and it was a Maiden but he looked very good for his lack of raceday experience. He's nommed for the ATC Derby ($101) but that might come too soon for him, guess it will depend on what happens here but ought to be winning this if they're serious.

http://mediaatc.skyracing.com.au/Race_Replay/2020/02/20200202SUNR05_V.mp4 

In which companies are you investing in the new year and why? I'm considering McDonald's, Beyond Meat, Uber and Amazon.

I think thanks the new McDonald's CEO the stock price will soar further, but if not it's still a great dividend share. I'm not a short term investor, so I bet for Amazon on the long run. I hope Uber gets through all the shit they've got into this year and their stock price will regenerate. And my opinion is that Beyond Meat is a underpriced paper, it has the most potential, especially in the next 10-20 years.

BR6 Downloading 

Amish boy mr3 no 4

hollaback girl br3 no 11

roman son br6 no 2

 

I like Eureka Street, Flem race 4 today.

Has been up for a while and put in a good run last start before pulling up slightly lame, has a significant change of jockey and with all the rain about in Melbourne conditions could suit.

Cheers, Loges.

Nice work Pig

good to see a few still posting here - esp when there is a decent priced winner - if only I had a gander - great tipping Pig

not that ruff, 

like the holy one MR 5 NO2,if it looks good on parade. I think it will sit a bit wide, not to my liking, but if it jumps well, may sit two wide next to lady lupino and nose her out at the post. MR# no5 Diamondesque has a tricky barrier to overcome for that distance 1100m, I think she should jump well and get carried over by Letzbeglam and win.

bris race 3 no 3 Mr understood 

good punting

A little specking for Alabama Express overnight. I think this horse has a big future and not surprised that they are having a throw at the stumps here with 55.5 kg. Only worried about SoJ. Good for exotics esp. the double trio in Qld. Cheers,The Pig.

Brilliant work Hinksy.  I Am Vinnie winning at $51 in the last at Randwick.

Coupla ruffies not really into Caulfield, don't like the tight track but into:
MR4 #10 Miss Venexuela and MR9 #8 He Exscels. They should both lead and hopefully hang on

Also SR9 #6 I Am Vinnie.

Good punting

I'll tip Caulfield Race 9 no 1 Yogi as a "midi" tip. In-between a bb and a roughie. Yogi has good 1st up form. Salon du Cheval should be a good place bet in the same race (been well supported and trainer gave a good report, Won last 2 so is very fit).

good luck

I'll have another dip with Pinjarra Race 8 no Lordhelpmerun  who finished the race off well last start.

good luck

Randwick Race 7 no 5 Helga

best bet for Millions day

BR2 Doubt Defying - $9.50 & $2.70 - I think it will win well but it's and EW cert

in the Perth Cup - Dark Musket - has run in this race in 2016, 2018 & 2019 and acquitted himself well in 2 of those. Last start was poor but ya never know - 4th time lucky - currently $91 & $21

sorry - the horse was Calzini - it's firmed a little now

What a pity I didn't throw in Mercurial Lad - I got $71 enhanced odds - easy to say after the fact, but I am stoked.

 

I have another ruffie in the last at the Gold Coast - $41 & $7.50

2 early BB's

MR7 Smart Elissim  EW $11 & $3.50

MR8 Galaxy Raider EW $13 & $4 

Ruffie's

MR3 Labuan Star $19 & $4.80

MR4 Goethe $67 & $16

 

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