R&S Rating .... Allez Tara

Pete
At Morphettville on Saturday a horse called Allez Tara won by an imposing 11 lengths.
On the R&S rating graph it rated 43.5, just 0.5kg better than its third last start where it was beaten 2.5 lengths in the same class (BM70)
Did the horse win by such a margin because every other horse suddenly went backwards in form by 11 lengths or more, or did it win because the horse improved on its previous form? Probably a bit of both I would think.

Would the horse still have rated 43.5 had it won by only 2 lengths?

What result would have to occur in the race for Allez Tara to rate 51?

Any comment on this would be welcome.


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G'day.

Relating to this point, I have to say I'm adding kilos to a horse's prior ratings every time Emily Finnegan, who has ridden Allez Tiara to its past 2 wins, gets on.

She is just flying, and I often reckon punters/observers underestimate just how much difference the riders who are as well balanced as Emily make to the way a horse runs.

Not, by any means, suggesting she has made the 11/12 length winning margins occur just by being on board, just I reckon some horses improve substantially when ridden by jockeys in form.

All the best.

I'm like most them

Quickly got Sick seeing the Big Sticker over my Posts and others that I liked reading

Unfortunately,we have LOST most of the Duelling Smarties

The members who could take it on the Chin, give it back and then offer some Intelligent Information (Right or Wrong)

Sometimes to Knock a Horse is just as Good as a Praise,, in this Case, Allez Tara is a 9YO, plenty of starts, and carving out a bit of time against questionable opposition on a track well noted for On Pacers, in suitable Wet Conditions



Welcome back propeller head,, maybe you posted somewhere else recently, and I didn't see it, so again,welcome back.

Interesting post, Pete. The first of Allez Tara's big wins was rated very conservatively as it was seemingly completely out of keeping with the rest of his form. Now that he has been able to replicate that we have given him the ratings full worth and back-handicapped that original win to reflect that. Very unusual to see a well exposed horse like him all of a sudden rate 6kgs above his previous best, but hard to knock now that he has done it twice, and it will be very interesting to see if he can stay at that level.

Along with other contributing factors as mentioned, I think this horse has a high cruising speed which is just being discovered. Allows him to travel at high speed without spending much extra and sapping the strength of average horses, many of which are milers being stretched to 2000m in search of some weaker opposition.

Yeah......

World Beater...

At the Dog Track,Morph Parks, in the Middle of Winter Racing against 'Top Class' animals in a Top Class Field.

Pete,

This is an SA nine year old which lost by 9 lengths at its previous start. I'd be very wary of getting carried away with its 11 length win!

Anything that wins by 11 lengths has to rate higher than had it won by 2 lengths. Having said that, horses who have a spike in their form usually do not repeat as the effort often sends them backwards.
In the upcoming race I have allowed for that and it still rates well on top.
If this was a BM75 race then Allez Tara would be giving those under it a lot of weight but in this class is only handicapped 0.5kg above the limit.
I think I would rather be backing it than laying it.
I would rather be laying Lotion than backing it in the same race.

So that you know, I do understand and appreciate your original post, Pete.

The early markets show Allez Tara at $2.60, whilst Lotion is $4.00. Is Allez Tara backable and Lotion layable based on your market?

Yes, based on my assessments and at the prices quoted Allez Tara is backable and Lotion is layable.
Ironically, I backed Allez Tara two starts ago and it ran like a dromedary only to bolt in next start...and I backed Lotion last start which was beaten behind Danouli which was beaten 18.3L by Allez Tara at its next start.

Just to spice it up, its the Parks track tomorrow, where his record is fairly unremarkable...

Now do you believe me the R&S rating on Allez Tara should have been at least 51.
And if it is not re-worked then today's rating will be calculated incorrectly as well, if you work off the incorrect low base.
Incidentally the horse won by 10 lengths today. This time the placegetters were complete hacks whereas last week the placegetters were horses strong in the market.
I will post what I think the rating should be when I get home later tonight.
Rest assured, I will work it out PROPERLY!

Eased up and could have won by at least a dozen lengths. Its previous "exceptional" run is now confirmed.

Its last two wins have been very impressive, but I have two questions.

1. What has created this massive improvement?
2. Why has it not shown such devastating dominance at its previous 58 starts?

Nice work Pete and others that rated it highly.


Well I have done my post race assessment on the race. It is always difficult when they win by big margins, but on the R&S scale I would put it at 50.5....and 51 for last week's run.
It will be interesting to see if R&S recalibrate the previous run and what they come up with for today's run...and if that is interpreted as a hint that it should be, it is because it is!
In answer to your question Gary about the sudden improvement and why it hasn't raced at that level before, my answer to both questions is, I don't know.....but it is what it is.

It's interesting looking at his record. What stands out is the trainer changes and possibly preparations. He was originally with Kevin Moses and possibly was well-regarded. (He did run in the G3 Frank Packer Plate at his 3rd start.)

Then after his second 3-start campaign he was transferred to John Croucher in Adelaide. He was with him from around October '11 to July '15. I'm not sure why but his last 3 campaigns with him were 12, 13 and 9 starts long. THEN he's been transferred to Ashton Dowling who raced him about 6 weeks later before making ending that campaign after 13 starts.

At the final start the steward mention the rider's concern about AT's action. Apparently there were no visible abnormalities BUT he's then been spelled for 7 months. That brings us to his current campaign.

I have no idea how much can be attributed to his new trainer; he's even still trained at Morphetville. (Was there an owner change too?) But maybe that's it. The horse got to rejuvenate and possibly some niggling injuries were fixed. Also he's trialled recently over the jumps. It looks like Dowling is only in his 2nd year of training. Maybe he's one to watch.

Ahh, I missed that. Did Khrapper say anything worth reading or was he just being a public nuisance as per usual?

By the way, the trainer Ashton Downing is a she.
What ever she is doing, she is doing it well.
Or to paraphrase a great line from a well known movie scene "I'll have what she is having"

Peter,
I notice that it rated .5kg better than its run behind General Custer last week and 1.5kg better on Saturday.
Obviously you think this isn't enough. What difference did you have between the runs?
I can see why R&S were conservative last week. It reeked of a fluke. And now we've had two consecutive flukes! It reminded me of a runaway Perth Cup winner of a few years ago whose name momentarily escapes me.
Best.
PS. Is Mr Magic still punting in the SA ring? (I presume that's your home turf)

I think Magic principally bets Melbourne races and gave up Adelaide races a long time ago.

At least someone knows the gender of the trainer. WCF was too busy capitalising mid sentence to give us the correct gender of the trainer.

I'm scratching my head trying to think of a horse that has won two consecutive runs at a metropolitan meeting, by 10 lengths or more.

If that's not enough.... it did it in consecutive weeks.

And its a horse which happens to be a nine year old, that has never displayed such brutal dominance before.

Its a mystery - and I don't like mysteries.

I am not getting carried away. The horse is down to run again this Saturday so it will be interesting to see if he franks his own form or regresses to something like his previous start.
But surely an 11 length win is more than 0.5kg better than a 2.5 length loss in the same class
no matter what benchmarks you use to rate and compare horses.

It certainly had everything off the bit a long way out, but I'd rate it as freakish and unrepeatable.

Its a lay for me, if its running this Saturday.

How did you rate the win?

Must have broken  aleg when winning by 10 L.

  Will improve as an 11 year old ------------------   In a Tin of Pal

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