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Which Horse Has The Distance In Their Legs?



Which Horse Has The Distance In Their Legs?

In recent times there has been a strong emphasis on the correlation between Melbourne Cup winning efforts and the number of kilometres a horse has travelled in their lead up preparation for the race.

Dunaden had
a short sharp prep


Racing and Sports has prepared a table of previous Cup winners (and some placegetters) showing the number of runs this preparation and the number of kilometres covered prior to running in the Cup

It should prove a useful guide in deciding which of the Cup fancies best fit the historical data.


Analysis of Historical Data

The analysis of these figures is not as straight forward as it seems. The average number of runs since a spell is 6. The average race distance covered by winners going into the race is just over 12km.

Other points of interest are that mares in general seem to have a lighter preparation than male horses. eg 5 runs and 9km travelled.

No mare has won the Cup in the last 45 years that has travelled more than Jezabeel did at 11.4km in 1998.

Horses which have to specifically qualify for a start, not surprisingly, seem to have covered more race km than those horses who have been specifically set for the race.

Bart knew
the right pattern


If we analyse Bart Cummings' 12 Cup winners we also see the trend for mares "confirmed".

For example, both the mares he has trained to win the Cup, Let's Elope and Light Fingers had 6 runs since a spell and had travelled 10.8km and 9km respectively.

His other male winners had an average of 6.5 runs from a spell and covered an average of 11.7km going into the Cup.

It seems the ideal preparation for a horse going into the Melbourne Cup is for it have had between 6 - 8 runs from a spell and travelled somewhere between 10.5km and 14.5km in lead up races. Over 60% of Cup winners in the last 45 years fitted this specification.



Year
 
Horse
 
Km's
 
RFS
 
2018  Cross Counter
Marmelo
A Prince Of Arran
 11.6
11.5
21.2
 5
4
7
 
2017  Rekindling
Johannes Vermeer
Max Dynamite
 15.0
14.9
5.6
 6
7
2
 
2016  Almandin
Heartbreak City
Hartnell
 8.9
9.2
9.0
 4
3
5
 
2015  Prince Of Penzance
Max Dynamite
Criterion
 9.9
9.7
8.1
 5
3
4
 
2014  Protectionist
Red Cadeaux
Who Shot Thebarman
 12.0
10.2
10.1
 5
4
5
 
2013 Fiorente
Red Cadeaux
Mount Athos
 7.0
17.1
11.1
 4
7
4
 
2012 Green Moon
Fiorente
Jakkalberry
 7.0
11.6
12.7
 4
5
5
 
2011 Dunaden
Red Cadeaux
Lucas Cranach
 5.4
22.6
12.0
 2
8
5
 
2010 Americain
Maluckyday
So You Think
 14.4
10.0
9.2
 5
5
6
 
2009 Shocking
Crime Scene
Mourilyan
 11.8
9.2
8.6
 6
4
3
 
2008 Viewed
Bauer
C'est La Guerre
 7.6
7.8
7.5
 4
3
4
 
2007 Efficient
Purple Moon
Mahler
 7.0
9.6
17.4
 4
4
7
 
2006 Delta Blues
Pop Rock
Maybe Better
 2.4
2.4
15.8
 1
1
9
 
2005 Makybe Diva
On A Jeune
Excellent
 7.0
12.4
5.5
 4
7
3
 
2004 Makybe Diva
Vinnie Roe
Zazziman
 7.4
5.2
13.6
 4
2
7
 
2003 Makybe Diva
She's Archie
Jardines Lookout
 7.4
9.4
-
 4
5
FU
 
2002 Media Puzzle
Mr. Prudent
Beekeeper
 20.1
11.3
4.4
 8
6
2
 
2001 Ethereal
Give The Slip
Persion Punch
 7.4
-
9.2
 4
FU
3
 
2000 Brew
Yippyio
Second Coming
 9.26
10.30
6.00
 5
5
3
 
1999 Rogan Josh
Central Park
Zazabelle
Lahar
 11.64
8.44
12.30
7.54
 6
4
6
4
 
1998 Jezabeel
Champagne
PersianPunch
 11.40
10.50
16.38
 6
6
5
 
1997 Might And Power
Doriemus
Markham
 8.10
7.40
9.60
 5
4
5
 
1996 Saintly
Count Chivas
Skybeau
 11.54
11.2
14.34
 6
6
7
 
1995 Doriemus
Nothin' Leica Dane
Vintage Crop
 8.7
13.1
14.8
 4
7
5
 
1994 Jeune
Paris Lane
Oompala
 10.7
12.7
28.7
 6
7
14
 
1993 Vintage Crop
Te Akau Nick
Mercator
 17.1
8.7
11.9
 6
4
5
 
1992 Subzero
Veandercross
Castletown
 11.4
10.0
11.4
 6
5
6
 
1991 Let's Elope
Shiva's Revenge
Magnolia Hall
 10.8
9.04
14.8
 6
5
7
 
1990 Kingston Rule
The Phantom
Mr Brooker
 13.42
9.04
12.2
 8
5
6
 
1989 Tawriffic
Super Impose
Kudz
 17.0
14.6
12.51
 8
8
6
 
1988 Empire Rose
Natski
Na Botto
 7.1
13.3
14.55
 4
6
8
 
1987 Kensei
Empire Rose
Rosedale
 12.2
9.0
11.5
 6
5
6
 
1986 At Talaq
Rising Fear
Sea Legend
 11.8
20.7
14.1
 6
9
7
 
1985 What A Nuisance 16.62 8 
1984 Black Knight 17.6 9 
1983 Kiwi 10.3 6 
1982 Gurners Lane 16.95 8 
1981 Just A Dash 14.1 7 
1980 Belldale Ball 10.5 6 
1979 Hyperno 10.6 6 
1978 Arwon 17.2 8 
1977 Gold And Black 12.6 7 
1976 Van Der Hum 17.35 8 
1975 Think Big 11.0 6 
1974 Think Big 14.75 7 
1973 Gala Supreme 11.8 6 
1972 Piping Lane  11.9 6 
1971 Silver Knight 13.65 7 
1970 Baghdad Note 10.8 6 
1969 Rain Lover  11.4 6 
1968 Rain Lover 12.6 7 
1967 Red Handed 11.05 6 
1966 Galilee 12.9 8 
1965 Light Fingers 9 6 
1964 Polo Prince 11.9 6 
1963 Gatum Gatum 17 8 
1962 Even Stevens 9.5 6 
1961 Lord Fury 12.8 7 
1960 Hi Jinx 10.3 5 

There seems to be a correlation between age of the horse and km travelled going into the Cup. For example 5YO's seem to need more racing eg 7.1 runs and 13.65km against 4YO's at 6.9 runs and 13.1km.


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