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Chris Scholtz previews the Epsom Handicap meeting at Randwick on September 30 with feature race analysis, selections for all races and Trial Watch and Blackbook reports.

RANDWICK September 30

EPSOM HANDICAP: With eight acceptors Chris Waller has all the angles covered, numbers that give him a huge chance to win this G1 mile race for the fifth time. Always prefer to side with the lightweights in Randwick's big mile races and Waller has the right horses close to the limit led by last start winners (16) DEMOCRACY MANIFEST and (17) REDIENER. DEMOCRACY MANIFEST is a three-time Randwick including a victory over the Epsom distance and Waller has him set for a peak performance after his super course record win in the Cameron Handicap (1500m) under 54kg at Newcastle when he sprinted home from last in fast sectionals second up from a spell. Will save ground all the way from the rails gate and is certain to play a big hand if it open ups for him at the right time. REDIENER impressed winning the G3 Bill Ritchie first-up over 1400m at this course and that race has supplied the last four Epsom winners. Also drawn low and will enjoy the run of the race. (19) WATERFORD is a big trifecta chance for Waller. Like Rediener he's the right age as 4YOs have won the Epsom 17 times in the last 26 years and he also has the timing right off two strong Rosehill placings in traditional lead-up races. He's down 4.5kg from his closing third in last Saturday's G2 Shannon Stakes and his wide draw suits his pattern. It's been a drought for interstate horses in the Epsom (one win since 1993) but I really like the chances of the Victorian-trained (12) POUNDING third up as he boasts a big record over 1600m (five wins) and is one of the few runners with a genuine weight-for-age form profile. He is sure to appreciate dropping 5kg off his last start fourth in the G2 Feehan Stakes at Moonee Valley. A host of chances for the exotics including (3) THE INEVITABLE, (5) CONVERGE; (8) HOPE IN YOUR HEART, (11) NUGGET and (13) COMMUNIST.

SELECTIONS: (16) DEMOCRACY MANIFEST; (17) Rediener; (19) Waterford; (12) Pounding

THE METROPOLITAN: The legendary Tommy Smith won this race seven times and made an art form of winning with stayers who beat the handicapper by emerging with progressive form in their lead-up races (e.g. Weidersehen; Oncidon, Bon Teint, Sir Serene). His daughter Gai Waterhouse has followed suit with her record eight winners including the lightweights Te Akau Nick, Hula Flight, Electronic, In Joyment and Dress Circle all carrying 52kg or less. She's now set for her first win in partnership with Adrian Bott with the hot favourite (14) JUST FINE ticking all the boxes to give the Hall of Fame trainer her first Metropolitan since 2012 as the import is clearly the weight horse with only 50kg. A big winner of his only two starts in Australia at Randwick, he drops 5kg from his dominant win in fast time in the Kingston Town Stakes (2000m), the race has provided seven winners of the Metropolitan since 2010. With no penalty for that win he is meeting the runner-up (12) BENAUD slightly better at the weights and can add to the big record of imports as only two of the last 12 Metropolitan winners did not race overseas beforehand. A warning for those hesitant about his short odds are his three defeats in the UK when tried over 2400m and the poor record of last start winners in the Metropolitan since 2005. Waterhouse and Bott have good back up chances with Derby winner (4) MAJOR DEEL and Newcastle Cup winner (13) MILITARY MISSION while Chris Waller, the dominant trainer over the last decade with five wins, has a good hand with the interesting import (17) MR WATERVILLE and very fit (15) AL AABIR, a close second in the traditional 2400m lead-up last Saturday, sure to run well under their light weights. For wider exotics include (3) CLEVELAND and (9) HO HO KHAN.

SELECTIONS: (14) JUST FINE; (15) Al Aabir; (17) Mr Waterville; (13) Military Mission

Best Bets

RACE 4 (13) ALTIVO: Won four of his first five starts up to 1600m and had no luck when resuming under 61kg when resuming over 1400m at this course when he went to the line untested after running into dead ends from the 400m. He won over this trip second up at Flemington in May and while rising in class he drops to 56kg and from his wide draw can be ridden to avoid any threats to his momentum. Shapes as a horse destined to win better races.

RACE 7: (9) BELLA NIPOTINA: An Everest dress rehearsal with this well-travelled mare ready to prove she is worthy of a place. Her record has progressively got better each preparation with a win in the G1 Manikato Stakes and G1 placings in the Moir Stakes, Lightning Stakes and William Reid Stakes as well as the $4 million Quakka in Perth on her CV over the last 12 months. She was a run short first-up when beaten only a half length into third under 58kg in the G3 Concorde over 1000m at this course and will appreciate going to 1200m and dropping 1.5kg with the return to wfa conditions. A subsequent trip to Wyong for a soft trial and the return of Craig Williams as her rider (3-3-6) have her primed to take her earnings past $4 million.

RACE 10 (18) AIRMAN: Already the winner of four of his six starts and certain there is more to come. Travelled three wide and just lacked the punch needed when a solid first-up third over 1100m at Rosehill on September 9. Well placed to improve as he will appreciate dropping 3kg to the limit weight over a distance where he is unbeaten in three attempts with the speed map in his favour.

Selections

RACE 1: (5) STATE OF AMERICA; (4) Philipsburg; (10) Loving Cilla; (9) Our Maryanne

RACE 2: (5) INVINCIBLE MADISON; (6) Lady Of Camelot; (7) Lady Tassort; (8) Manaal

RACE 3: (14) VOLATILE; (11) Scampi; (13) Straight Charge; (8) Highness

RACE 4: (13) ALTIVO; (9) For Valour; (7) Renaissance Woman; (8) Unspoken

RACE 5: (1) TOM KITTEN; (3) Tannhauser; (4) Cafe Millenium; (8) Ravello

RACE 6: (2) KIMOCHI; (1) Tiz Invincible; (7) Mollynickers; (12) Unique Ambition

RACE 7: (9) BELLA NIPOTINA; (2) Think About It; (4) Remarque; (3) Mazu

RACE 8: (16) DEMOCRACY MANIFEST; (17) Rediener; (19) Waterford; (12) Pounding

RACE 9: (14) JUST FINE; (15) Al Aabir; (17) Mr Waterville; (13) Military Mission

RACE 10: (18) AIRMAN; (8) Kibou; (2) Recommendation; (13) Pizarro

Why They Can Win….

RACE 1 - (5) STATE OF AMERICA: Progressive improver. Made for Randwick after luckless Canterbury placing.

RACE 2- (5) INVINCIBLE MADISON: Let down with impressive turn of foot in her trial win. Speed will suit.

RACE 3 - (14) VOLATILE: Over the top from last in his sharp trial win. Drawn to suit with J Mac aboard.

RACE 5 - (1) TOM KITTEN: Course and distance winner last season. Should cover these at level weights.

RACE 6 - (2) KIMOCHI: Finally gets the better draw over Tiz Invincible. Could be strongest over the mile.

RACE 8 – (14) DEMOCRACY MANIFEST: See Epsom preview.

RACE 9 – (14) JUST FINE: See Metropolitan preview. 

TRIAL WATCH REPORT

NOTED TRIAL RUNNERS – September 27-September 30

RANDWICK SATURDAY (for 2YOs see Trial Pointers): Renaissance Woman (R4); Think About It (R7); Alcohol Free (R7); Kote (R7); Bella Nipotina (R7); Kovalica (R8); Communist (R8); Rubamos (R10); Much Much Better (R10) 

NEWCASTLE SATURDAY: Single Benefactor (R4); Luton Hoo (R4); Taipan Legend (R6); Schwarz (R6); Star Legacy (R6); Salisano (R7); Power Of The Brave (R7)

WARWICK FARM MONDAY: Facile (R1); Spacewalk (R6); Written In Code (R8); Toronomica (R8); Chief Conductor (R8); Consenza (R8)

GOULBURN TUESDAY: Field Of Myrtle (R6)

RECENT TRIAL WATCH WINNERS: Costa Smerelda; Dark Halo; Whinchat; Sequestered; Arctic Glamour; Big Apple; Medatsu, Razors; Ozzmosis; Midori Glory; Midnight Opal; Rhettara; Excess; Afterlight; Panic; Ausbred Flirt; Private Eye; Kibou; Giancarlo; Florida Sky; Left Field; Bolero Belle; Riff Rocket; Frilled; She's A Bad Girl; Red Card; Unspoken; Rhythm Of Love.

TRIAL POINTERS

RANDWICK September 22: Crack sprinter THINK ABOUT IT continued his Everest build up with an impressive second in the fastest heat over 740m (43.24; 33.08). He got into his work over the last 100m, making ground quickly to be beaten 1.3 lengths. RENAISSANCE WOMAN made a strong return in her first trial since her classy performances in good fillies races at the Brisbane carnival. Came from well off the pace with an impressive surge to win her 1050m heat in good time (62.76; 34.68).

ROSEHILL September 19: Good class winner RUBAMOS impressed with his closing work for a strong second behind his eager stablemate Kazou in a fast 900m heat (54.75; 34.47).  Made good ground over the last 100m to be beaten a half length in his first trial since May.

WYONG September 18: BELLA NIPOTINA had nothing more than a day out as Louise Day restrained her at the rear in her 845m heat won by Cloudland in moderate time (51.09; 34.23). She was eager to run but Day never released the brakes at any stage with the mare going through the line unextended 3.5 lengths from the winner. The big grey MUCH MUCH BETTER jogged beside the winner over the last 200m and could have easily won the trial if asked for a serious effort.

WARWICK FARM September 12: THINK ABOUT IT made an excellent start to his Everest campaign as he rolled home over the top of his rivals for an impressive win in the fastest 789m heat (46.46; 33.38). Sam Clipperton allowed him to find his legs settling second last and keeping him wide before letting him extend smoothly down the outside from the 350m.

RANDWICK August 25: A high class black type trial on the Kensington track saw the imported July Cup winner ALCOHOL FREE make a strong return in her first trial since she contested the Queen Of The Turf in her Australian debut in April. Travelled easily a length off the leader and responded well to pick up under a quiet ride over the last 100m for a narrow win (49.81; 32.79).

WARWICK FARM August 18: An impressive second by unraced Not A Single Doubt filly SINGLE BENEFACTOR in only her second trial and her first since March. No early speed before making her run widest on the turn and cruising home under no pressure.

2YOS – Randwick Trials September 18

BREEDERS PLATE

HEAT 1 (850m – 48.46; 32.52): Written By colt STRAIGHT AHEAD set the standard for the session when he sped over 850m in the fastest time of the morning to win the trial by one length after the runner up sat on his outside and made the winner work from start to finish. The time could not be bettered in later heats that were run over shorter distances.

HEAT 3 (850m – 49.69; 33.50): A strong win by FEARLESS, coming from three lengths off the leader at the 200m to chase keenly and get the upper hand on the line.

HEAT 5 (845m – 49.29; 33.40): HIGHNESS jumped into the lead and showed he had been well educated to respond to riding to get away from the chasers in the straight. He was throttled down over the last 50m to score by a 1.25 lengths.

HEAT 7 (845m – 49.59; 33.40): ESPIONAGE is an athletic type and he took the honours after travelling three deep and responding when put under the whip to win by a half neck from BODYGUARD. The latter looked the part and should improve on his effort to come between runners from fourth on the fence under hard riding for his close second.

HEAT 9 (843m – 49.36; 33.64): Not the fastest heat but the winner SCAMPI made a huge impression cruising to an easy 2.75 lengths win. Led under a tight hold and never came off the bit, indicating he could have gone considerably faster. MARAIS also looked good working to the line late for second.

HEAT 11 (843m – 49.32; 33.44): VOLATILE was the only winner to come from well off the pace, settling last out of the gates before he looped the field from the 400m, showing classy acceleration to sprint to the line and put a good margin of 2.5 lengths on them at the finish - the sort of trial you look for among unraced youngsters! COUNTERPART earned notice with his late work to finish fourth.

GIMCRACK STAKES

HEAT 2 (850m – 49.04; 32.80): Racy filly LADY OF CAMELOT is a half sister to last year's winner Platinum Jubilee from the same stable and showed plenty of natural speed to share the lead on the outside for the first 300m before easily taking control, sprinting quickly off the turn to run away with the trial by four lengths in a time bettered by only one other filly in a shorter 845m heat.

HEAT 4 (850m – /49.59; 33.50): Only four fillies in this heat with all runners put under pressure. CELESTIAL BLING settled second and was given a couple of taps with the whip to chase down the leader and run through the line keenly. TOTOKA kept responding to riding to finish a closing third.

HEAT 6 (845m – 48.98; 33.31): The winner LADY TASSORT is another natural runner. She quickly found the lead and responded to riding to sprint home quickly for a two lengths win in sharp time over the reduced distance.

HEAT 10 (843m – 49.46; 33.59): ERNO'S CUBE loomed to win the heat but after reaching a narrow lead just couldn't quite finish it off. Liked the late work of MANAAL for third.

HEAT 12 (843m – 49.55; 33.65): The highly anticipated $1.2 million filly INVINCIBLE MADISON delivered a stylish win. She's an athletic girl and showed class to let down nicely from behind the pace and stretch out for a smooth win by almost three lengths.

BLACKBOOK REPORT

Eligible Blackbook Runners – September 29-October 2

MOONEE VALLEY FRIDAY: King Of Fighters (R5)

BENALLA FRIDAY: Georgie Get Mad (R8)

RANDWICK SATURDAY: Tannhauser (R5); Kimochi (R6); SUmmewr Loving (R6); Mollynickers (R6); Madame Pommery (R8); Waterford (R8); Olentia (R8); Cleveland (R9); Al Aabir (R9); Mr Waterville (R9); Pizarro (R10); Airman (R10)

EAGLE FARM SATURDAY: Rosovo (R4/R5); Hail Manhattan (R8)

SANDOWN SUNDAY: King Of Fighters (R3); Foujita San (R5); Aberfeldie Boy (R7); Letsrollthedice (R7)

WARWICK FARM MONDAY: For Victory (R4); Written In Code (R8)

RECENT BLACKBOOK WINNERS: Vienna Princess; First Immortal; Espiona; Archo Nacho; Satness; Wolfy; Unspoken; Recommendation; Snapback; Devoted; Garza Blanca; Diamond Dealer; Wineglass Bay; Tags; Apulia; Amenable; August Bloom; April In Augusta; Smashing Eagle; Amor Victorious; Baiyka; Thin Red Line; Intuitu; Barbie's Fox

BLACKBOOKERS – Selected September 23

(Follow for next 3 starts)

CELESTIAL LEGEND; DOLPHIN SKIN; KOKORO; LAVISH EMPIRE; LIONS ROAR; MR WATERVILLE; SOULCOMBE; WITHOUT A FIGHT