3 minute read

Punters know spring is not far off when the Warwick Stakes is run, as it signals the start of long campaigns that could easily lead all the way to the first Tuesday in November.

One would expect champion trainers Chris Waller and Gai Waterhouse with the strength of their stables to dominate the race but in the last 20 years this is not so – the pair collectively have prepared just one winner – Metal Bender - by Waller in 2010.

That is probably not a good statistic for this afternoon’s race with the pair providing again half of the fourteen runners – equal largest field to line up in the last 20 years.

With 12 of the 14 runners either resuming or second up from a spell, logic would suggest any runner with a fitness edge has a decided advantage. However statistics again paint a slightly different picture with 18 of the last 21 winners resuming or second up from a spell – 13 from that sample being first up.

Crack mare Royal Descent has not won for a long time – 854 days in fact, however she has arguably the best form in the race even though she has not registered a win since winning the 2013 ATC Oaks by ten lengths.

Royal Descent was runner up in the Warwick Stakes last year behind Tiger Tees then went on to go under narrowly in the G1 George Main Stakes, G1 Epsom Handicap and G1 Doncaster Handicap.

The daughter of Redoute’s Choice definitely has a liking for the spacious Randwick track winning twice and placing nine times from 13 starts – something that will work in her favour today.

A scan of her form book also suggests her fresh up form is superior in the Spring than in the Autumn and even assessing her on her lower fresh up weight adjusted Timeform ratings brings her right into contention. On that basis she certainly looks a value chance at the odds currently on offer.

With Zaratone engaged there will be a lot of pace in the race and I envisage Royal Descent getting a cosy run under Hugh Bowman not too far off the lead.

There are plenty of dangers to the bonny mare, headed by the inform Burbero, It’s Somewhat, Kermadec, First Seal and Pornichet.

And they probably don’t end there in what is shaping as a crackerjack renewal.

Burbero has been in sparkling form in two runs back this campaign. Last preparation he worked his way through the grades with some handy efforts in elite company such as his close up sixth in the G1 George Ryder Stakes after a strong win in the Ajax Stakes.

Burbero reached his master Timeform rating last start and there promises to be further to come this afternoon which brings him into play.

Pinwheel had a similar profile before he won the Warwick Stakes in 2010.

The Godolphin galloper It’s Somewhat is a query. The former UK galloper has raced only twice in Australia but has been impressive both times.

He scored impressively first up in the Liverpool City Cup (1300m) at Warwick Farm, then had no luck in the G1 George Ryder Stakes finishing just over four lengths behind Japanese galloper Real Impact.

Spelled after that effort, It’s Somewhat looks to have been prepared for another strong run fresh up with two very good barrier trials.

It’s Somewhat gets James McDonald back in the saddle and if he runs to his Australian Timeform ratings is capable of making his presence felt.

Doncaster Handicap winner and Waller runner Kermadec is a another query.

Last campaign Kermadec took a couple of runs before reaching peak Timeform ratings form but now he has reached that level, he could easily account better for himself here, especially as Glen Boss is making the trip from Melbourne to partner the Teofilo entire.

A winner of three of his eight race starts, Kermadec has fulfilled the early promise he showed with some outstanding performances last campaign.

After being tragically beaten in the G1 Australian Guineas behind Wandjina, Kermadec suffered a similar fate when a closing third in the G1 George Ryder Stakes behind Real Impact before running away with the Doncaster Handicap.

Kermadec is one runner with plenty of upside still and although fitness wise is short of his best, he is a horse not to be underestimated.

First Seal and Pornichet cannot be discounted either.

First Seal comes off an excellent 3YO career with wins in the Flight Stakes and Surround Stakes plus a narrow defeat in the G1 Coolmore Classic but today she faces a totally different level of opposition.

It has to be said she was disappointing last campaign but she will need to be at her best to win against this opposition.

If gauged on her first up Timeform ratings First Seal has something to find. Last campaign she was beaten when favourite in the Light Fingers Stakes (1200m) behind Adrift before producing a better effort second up winning comfortably in the Surround Stakes.

Admittedly the 1400m this afternoon will play to her strengths but at her first run against older, more seasoned weight for age gallopers, she will need to be at close to her best.

Former French galloper Pornichet is a horse destined for a big campaign. After winning over 1500m at Sandown last spring, trainer Gai Waterhouse set him in search of better riches in the Autumn winning the Neville Sellwood Stakes (2000m) before dropping back to 1600m in the Doncaster where he finished fifth behind Kermadec and Royal Descent.

Both fresh up runs in Australia have been below his best and although he has improved since those efforts he cannot be entirely ruled out.

Enjoy an interesting Warwick Stakes renewal.

Ends