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Statistic Of The Week of French Racing News - 9th September 2021.

With Longchamp staging Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe trials this weekend, we've researched if there is a significant difference in the draw over 2400m at the Paris venue. What is the best draw to win and place for the big race which takes place under a months' time? And it will also provide a guide for this weekend's Prix Vermaille, run over the Classic distance.  

On Sunday, three important trial races will be conducted including the G2 Prix Foy (2400m) for four-year-olds and above, the G2 Prix Niel (2400m) for the three-year-olds and the G1 Prix Vermeille (2400m) for three-year-old and above, fillies and mares. All three will have an impact on the biggest and most prestigious race in Europe – the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (2400m) on Sunday 3 October. All three races will be run over the same course and distance of 2400m. Below we look and assess the success of the gates and if there is a draw bias.  

Looking at the table, for win purposes, it is clear draw ten or lower maintains a stronger record compared to eleven, with a significant drop in win strike rates in particular for gates ten and eleven. Keep in mind, the 2400m start at Longchamp conducts multiple large field handicaps during the course of a season, therefore the sample is quite representative. Stall six looks to be the best place to be for victory with a win strike rate of 14%. However, all numbers from one to ten have a fair record apart from stall eight with only 7.5%.  

For the placings, draw two is the best with a strong place strike rate of 37%. All low numbers boast a good place percentage however, the first nine are either close to 30% or higher. 

So, for victory a draw under seven looks best. However even if drawn up to ten, it would not be a hinderance. The eleven plus is where the challenge begins. For the frame, draw two would be the dream but anywhere again in the first ten appear to be strongest.