3 minute read
Local star Werther will look to fend off stiff competition from abroad in Hong Kong's richest race, the Hong Kong Cup.
Time Warp was fancied there but Werther, still held the market edge, and that gap between the pair should only extend both off and on the track this Sunday.
Werther is the horse who has been most obviously prepared to peak for this race. The question is what that peak is worth against international competition.
The European challenge is six-strong but it's the one-two punch of Deauville and Poet's Word that look like being the major stumbling blocks for Werther.
Timeform ratings give us a quick pecking order with Poet's Word rated 124, Deauville 123, and then a gap to 118 where the likes of Garlingari and Robin Of Navan are intertwined.
Werther ran to 126 when winning the QEII Cup in 2016 but had conditions in his favour in a race that looked unlikely to be replicated any time soon. That's been the case and a look at the array of his recent/relevant ratings hint at him having no real edge on the big two from Europe in terms of ability.
There's a race within a race to look at with Deauville and Poet's Voice, the former having edged the latter around tight-turning Chester back in May. It was 6-4 Deauville against 4-1 Poet's Word that day. Ryan Moore put the race on Deauville's terms from the outset and Poet's Word did well to close him down to a neck on the line having conceded Deauville complete control around the tight-turning course, leaving the impression that he was the better horse.
Without it being decisive, we can say that impression from Chester has been confirmed, with Poet's Word going on improving throughout the season, enough so to be marked slightly ahead of Deauville who has been slightly busier and was well below his best last time.
Similarly, little has split Robin Of Navan and Garlingari in two meetings this year, with the ledger reading one apiece, but the betting has preferred Robin Of Navan on both occasions and he's fairly easy to mark as the most likely of the pair.
Garlingari started an $86.00 chance in last year's Vase and was well beaten. He's a better-performed horse now but still looks an outsider in 2017.
War Decree was okay in the French Derby earlier in the year, and he was fed to the wolves in America last time, but that looks anything but an ideal set-up and he's easy to mark in the 'others' category with Garlingari.
It's harder to be so dismissive of Blond Me who has become a much better horse in 2017 and comes off a Group 1 win in Canada. That followed a near fall in France and a terrific effort on heavy going at Goodwood where she chased star filly Winter very credibly.
That form may not translate directly to quick ground in the far east but it can't be as simple as marking her 50's and moving on either.
The Japanese have taken home the last two editions of this race, and again they are well represented despite fielding nothing of the calibre of last year's winner Maurice.
Neorealism and Staphanos don't bring the same concealed feel that many of the Japanese travellers come equipped with, both being Hong Kong regulars.
Staphanos is making his fourth trip to Sha Tin and running in his third consecutive Cup while Neorealism won the QEII here in April and ran in the Mile at this meeting last year.
Staphanos has started around the 15-1 mark in all three visits and run well. He hasn't won in a long while (thought that is not uncommon with the Japanese) but his run two back says he's as good as ever and has similar claims this time around.
Neorealism flopped with Stapanhos in the Tenno Sho but it was a testing conditions and a bit of an outlier race. Neorealism's win here in April was in a fairly farcical QEII, the tempo basically non-existent in what amounted to little more than a high-class barrier trial which he took out under an enterprising ride from Joao Moreira.
Was he flattered by the jockey there? Sure. But he was well-fancied pre-race off a couple of good Group 2 wins at home, one in which he took the major scalp of the aforementioned Maurice, and that ties him right at the hip with Werther who stated an even-money favourite that day.
It was evens v 7-2. Roughly two of Werther for every one Neorealism. That ratio looks about right again and this time we make it $4.5 v $7.00.
Assessed Market
Poet's Word: $4.50Werther: $4.50
Neorealism: $7.00Deauville: $9.00
Staphanos: $16.00Blond Me: $16.00
Smart Layer: $21.00Time Warp: $21.00
Robin Of Navan: $41.00Garlingari: $51.00
War Decree: $51.00Secret Weapon: $51.00
