3 minute read
Brett Davis provides exclusive preview of Sha Tin races.
Rail - B Course
AWT - Races 3,9
Race 1
#8 LA FORZA was beaten as the $1.4 favourite last time out by Thunder Blink but he still performed well to finish second in the main form reference to this event. Zac Purton sticks with him, he's now got the benefit of race experience, barrier six should allow him to be closer to the rail and he's still got just a light weight to carry. The addition of cheekpieces should also bring out further improvement. Look for him to go forward and prove hard to run down.
#5 SANTORINI finished third behind Thunder Blink and La Forza last time out. He settled up on the speed on that occasion and while he couldn't go with the first two, he still stuck on well to finish where he did. He's trained by a leading trainer in Frankie Lor and will be ridden by one of Hong Kong's most successful jockeys in Karis Teetan. He will have improved from that first up run, he'll make his own luck in running and is the main danger to La Forza.
#2 CALIFORNIA MOXIE is also coming through the Thunder Blink race where he made up ground from towards the rear of the field to finish fourth. The in form Tony Cruz and Brenton Avdulla combination team up with this horse, who will wear cheekpieces for the first time. They should bring out some improvement from him and if the leaders overdo it out in front, look for him to be doing his best work late.
#4 MEANINGFUL DRAGON looks the pick of the three debutants in the race. He's done most of his prep work at Conghua and he showed enough pace in the early stages of his latest trial to suggest that he's capable of taking up a handy spot in the run. If he can sustain his run to the line and up against horses of his own age range, he could finish in the placings.
#9 RUN YES RUN wasn't beaten too far first up behind Thunder Blink when he finished fifth. He's drawn to be in the right part of the track this time around and with the run under his belt, he's worth considering from a place or exotic bet point of view.
Selections - 8,5,2,4,9
R2 - 1,8,6,10,9
R3 - 4,11,6,3,1
R4 - 3,9,2,5,1
R5 - 5,9,10,6,1
R6 - 3,2,1,9,4
R7 - 2,8,7,12,10
Queen Mother Memorial Cup
(Gp3 - 2400m - Hcp)
Race 8
#4 FIVE G PATCH has a lot in his favour here. He brings the strongest recent form lines into this race, as he hasn't been far off champion middle distance galloper Romantic Warrior on a couple of occasions lately. The latest of those was last Sunday at Sha Tin, where he finished sixth in the QEII Cup. He got to the line strongly in that race, whilst also proving that he handles the type of rain affected going that he'll encounter again on Sunday. He's suited by the step up in trip, he's well weighted, will get a suitable tempo and has drawn a nice gate in barrier five. He's the one to beat.
#11 UNBELIEVABLE has been a solid contributor at his last two races and in the process built up a strong and adequate fitness base.
He's a long way out of the handicap and may potentially need more racing to acclimatise but he's extremely progressive going forward.
As the winner of the London Gold Cup, at just start number four this time last year, he's a very exciting prospect that should be measuring up.
#1 RUSSIAN EMPEROR is the best 2400m horse in Hong Kong, having won two group ones over this course and distance. However, the topweight of 135lbs on his back will make it very difficult for him to win this, as his rider Hugh Bowman has virtually said in the lead up to the weekend. Nevertheless, given his class and the suitable ground conditions, he's capable of running into the minor money, which will have him spot on for the Champions and Chater Cup later this month.
#9 KA YING GENERATION almost pulled off an upset in the Hong Kong Derby last time out, where he dared his rivals to keep up with him from the 800m mark onwards and it was only in the last 50m that he was rundown by Massive Sovereign and Galaxy Patch. He's got no weight on his back and has performed well previously on a rain affected track over this distance. Look for him to give a sight out in front.
#10 NATURAL STORM was placed in this race last year, when it was also conducted on a wet track, and looks to be in a similar vein of form this time around. While the race wasn't run to suit him last time out, I really liked the way that he got to the line and the step up in distance is in his favour. He's drawn well in gate five and has no weight to carry either. I expect him to be thereabouts at the finish.
Selections - 4,11,1,9,10
R9 - 6,2,3,8,9
Race 10
#11 GORGEOUS WIN is a promising horse on the rise who's won three times this season. He's only stepped up to class two recently and wasn't suited last time out in a leader dominated race, but still did well to finish second. There looks to be more speed on in this event, which will be to his advantage. He's only got a light weight to carry, he's drawn a reasonable barrier and as a horse with rating points in hand, he looks like he'll get every opportunity to win again here.
#8 KA YING RISING is the main danger to Gorgeous Win and is also a horse that's working his way through the grades nicely. This is a step up in grade for him, but he's got the light weight with Zac Purton retaining the ride. I liked the way that he won with authority last time out and I expect him to also roll forward and make his own luck close to the speed. He's on an upward trajectory and is a key contender in this contest.
#1 SON PAK FU is an interesting runner as he's having his first start for Tony Cruz, who's already made a number of gear changes with him. This is a drop in grade as he last ran in a group one, and it wasn't that long ago that he finished only a few lengths off Victor The Winner at the highest level. That's stronger form than what his rivals bring, so he's clearly a classy galloper. However, his record is better at Happy Valley, he's drawn awkwardly and gives weight away to some promising horses, which is why I haven't got him further up in the pecking order.
#3 PACKING TREADMILL finished fifth in the Sprint Cup last time out, which has already proven to be a strong form race, given that Invincible Sage came out of it and went on to win the Chairman's Sprint Prize last weekend. This isn't as strong as that assignment, he's racing well, is from an in form stable and is drawn to get the run of the race. Expect him to be very competitive.
#9 REWARD SMILE has only recently returned to the races and does have form around Son Pak Fu. He'll appreciate the switch to the turf, he's got a light weight and is from the in form John Size stable. He's one to consider at value on a place line or for the exotics.
Selections - 11,8,1,3,9
R11 - 3,9,8,4,2
