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The G1 Shuka Sho (2000m) this Sunday at Kyoto Racecourse is the final jewel in Japan’s triple crown for fillies.
It follows the 1600m G1 Oka Sho run in April at Hanshin and the 2400m G1 Japanese Oaks run in May at Tokyo.
The Shuka Sho, this year in its 24th running, wraps up the big three, with many of the hopefuls sporting a new level of maturity, both mentally and physically.
Neither winner of the first two legs – Gran Alegria and Loves Only You – is participating in the Shuka Sho and the race's popular picks come largely from the second and third-place finishers from the previous two classics, as well as from the top finishers of the Shuka Sho preps, the G3 Shion Stakes (2000m) at Nakayama on 7 September and the G2 Rose Stakes (1800m) at Hanshin on 15 September. Some other very interesting fillies add a bit of spice.
Last year's champion two-year-old filly Danon Fantasy ran a lacklustre fourth in the Oka Sho and fifth in the Oaks, but redeemed herself with a Rose Stakes win in record time. The Deep Impact filly will be paired with her regular rider Yuga Kawada, currently leading Christophe Lemaire by six wins at the top of the jockey ranks.
Following Danon Fantasy closely in popularity is the Bago filly Chrono Genesis, third in both the Oka Sho and Oaks. Oaks runner-up Curren Bouquetd'or, a daughter of Deep Impact, finished third in the Shion Stakes and is showing a great deal more muscle and maturity than she had in the spring. Paired with Lemaire is Contra Check, also by Deep Impact and one of two fillies fielded here by Kazuo Fujisawa. She figured out of the top three for the first time in the Oaks, and will surely also welcome a return to a clockwise track.
Beach Samba, who just made the board in the Oka Sho and crashed and burned in the Oaks, is looking primed for a return to her early days of success after finishing a close second in the Rose Stakes. And, the Rulership-sired Passing Through, is gaining a good share of attention since scooping the Shion Stakes.
The big question, however is what role the typhoon approaching Japan will play. Expectations are that Typhoon Hagibis could throw quite a wrench into the special three-day weekend of racing.
A direct hit is expected on Saturday and if races are not cancelled or postponed, runners Sunday will likely be dealing with a rain-affected track, something the majority of them have not had to figure with before and a factor that would do much to neutralise horses with a turn of foot.
Espoir, who has yet to figure out of the top three in her five starts thus far, is especially attractive now, having won last out on a yielding track and on good track the race before that. She has always shown the ability to successfully run from any position.
Of the other popular picks, Chrono Genesis has won on good going, as have Beach Samba and Passing Through. Contra Check has fared decently twice over the same.
The Shuka Sho is run over the right-handed Kyoto inner course, a course considered "tricky" by many. The race starts before the stands, where the din of the fanfare and the screaming crowd can upset even the veteran runners.
The field of 18 will execute four bends, the first two tight and coming just over 300 meters from the gate. The only undulation starts halfway down the backstretch, where the track rises some three metres over about 200 metres, then drops down and levels out halfway around the final bend.
After straightening into the level stretch, horses have only 328 metres to the finish line. Unlike Tokyo Racecourse, with its very long stretch and hill from the final bend, the Kyoto 2000m does tend to favor those running on or close to the pace and taking an inside track.
The outside gates are considered to be a disadvantage, as none of the turns are forgiving. Of course, a horse with early speed on the outside can still fare well, and one inside and relying on a late kick can do poorly. Longshots though tend not to do well in the race. That said, it's a hard race to call and this year especially so.
