3 minute read
The Racing and Sports Pricing Model looks at the 2020 Japan Cup from Tokyo.
The 2020 Japan Cup is one for the ages, the farewell to a champion in Almond Eye presents her with what may well be her stiffest test, a clash with a fellow Triple Tiara winner in Daring Tact and a Triple Crown winner who may well be the best horse on the planet in Contrail.
Almond Eye won the Japan Cup back in 2018 as a three-year-old filly. That came on the back of a Triple Tiara success that has been matched in 2020 by Daring Tact. Matched in terms of achievement, but not so much in terms of form. Daring Tact dazzled with a turn of speed to win the Oaks but it's hard to get away from the fact that she didn't beat much there and her 1000 Guineas win came over the top of a collapsing pace - the form if anything looking substandard for that race.
Those that came out from behind Daring Tact in the Shuka Sho (where she completed her Triple Tiara feat) to run in the QEII Cup ran credibly there - though none were particuarly well fancied in the betting and the best they could do from five runners was finish fourth.
Daring Tact has X-Factor and upside, but her form and the times she has run don't match her record. Away from her trophy cabinet there is little evidence to date that she is much, if at all, better than last year's leading fillies Loves Only You (who skips this in favour of the Arima Kinen) and Curren Bouquetd'or who did run second in the Cup last year as a three-year-old filly and could run well again in 2020 without surprising.
All this equates to the Racing and Sports pricing model thinking that Daring Tact is the horse least likely of the 'big three' with Almond Eye and Contrail having much more substance to go with their style.
Betting outside of Japan largely agrees with this. Almond Eye heads things in most places and that is fair enough. She won the Tenno Sho for the second year in a row and did it in fine style, without having to leave it all out there.
In very similar conditions she was able to win the 2020 Tenno Sho running 1.6 seconds slower overall than in 2019 where a fast tempo made drew the best (or near enough) out of Almond Eye. They were home in 34.3 second there as opposed to 33.6 this time around - highlighting the different ways each race was run.
The high pressure of 2019 saw Almond Eye throw up the only flat run of her career in the Arima Kinen, but the 2020 Tenno Sho was a test of late speed and should have left Almond Eye with plenty in reserve heading to the Japan Cup.
A peak beckons, and that sets the bar nice and high for Contrail - a Triple Crown winner who was at his brilliant best back in April and May but has only (only is relative...) been good rather than great in his two most recent wins.
Has a year at his top caught up with Contrail? Or is there a another world class performance in the locker, just waiting to be unleashed as required? These are the questions he has to answer, but his performances beating the high-class Salios in the Derby and particularly the Guineas, where the timefigure was sensational, mark him down as one good enough.
The Racing and Sports pricing model leans to him being the most likely winner and therefore, as the weight of sentimental money potentially gets behind the mare, the bet in the race - though something like 2-1 would be required to make it a meaningful selection.
The pricing model also highlights one well outside the market - World Premiere - as a better chance than odds of around 40/1 imply.
World Premiere missed the spring, having reportedly failed to come to hand as the trainer would have liked, but his Arima Kinen placing last time out backed up his Leger winning performance and makes him one that can get into the finish here.
He is good enough to pick up the pieces if the big guns happen to falter and is well worth having on side in what really does look like the race of 2020. Enjoy!
