3 minute read
The Racing and Sports Priceline for the 2019 Nunthorpe Stakes on Day Three of York's Ebor Festival.
Day Three sees a top-line sprinting clash between the speedball Battaash and the July Cup winner Ten Sovereigns and the duel promises to be just as hot off the track as on it.
Assessed Prices: Battaash $2.70; Ten Sovereigns $2.70; Mabs Cross $10.00.
There is nothing between the two market leaders in the eyes of The Model - but not so the early betting who make Ten Sovereigns the clear pick. The betting here should be fierce. Ten Sovereigns posted a strong rating winning the July Cup but Battaash has several ratings to match - or slightly better - that level and he has them at today's trip.
There's reason, looking at Ten Sovereigns array of ratings, to think that he could regress here, and that is without considering the difficulties he may have coming back to 1000m. He is fast - but Battaash is a bullet.
Battaash has been a bit of a heart attack horse over the years. A graph of his ratings spiking and dipping above a mean value that he rarely, if ever, ran to. But he has been very solid in three runs this year. No big spikes just calm, solid, high quality sprinting. Sprinting that gives him a terrific chance of knocking off Ten Sovereigns over a trip that plays to his pace.
Click here for free form, ratings and interactive speed maps for York tonight
Richard Hannon had a (ludicrously) big two-year-old winner on day two and The Model sees him having another on day three. It's unlikely that Threat will win the Gimcrack (race three) by 11 lengths as his stablemate Mum's Tipple did on Thursday but he is a high-rating horse that The Model marks a shade of odds-on despite a relatively big field and he looks a bet worth having.
The Model also sees value in the Lonsdale Cup where Stradivarius' consistency, and perhaps will to win, are clearly well regarded by the marketplace but from a straight down the line ratings point of view Dee Ex Bee, and a well-profiled improver in Falcon Eight, have a better chance of causing the upset. The Model has been taking aim at Stradivarius all season, and with with no reward, but she keeps on keeping on and hopefully tonight is the night she gets him rock 'n' rolled.
