3 minute read
The Racing and Sports Pricing Model looks at the 2021 Telegraph Stakes from Trentham.
Star mare Avantage looks to complete New Zealand's big sprinting double in the Group One Telegraph Stakes at Trentham this weekend and the Racing and Sports Pricing Model has her pegged as a pretty good chance of landing the prize.
That's all well and good, but a pretty good chance is hardly out on a limb. Early markets have Avantage more than just a 'pretty good chance' with prices around $1.50 suggesting that she is 2/3 chance to become the first horse since Bawalaksana in 1999 to land the double. She is currently one of three horses to have won both races in different seasons since Bawalaksana in 1999 having won last year's Telegraph.
So Avantage shoots for the big sprinting double while also defending her Telegraph crown. She's the best sprinter in NZ hands down based on that record. Based on the last start Railway things might not be so clear cut. The race was run at a crawl and Levante was left to scream home in 32.5 seconds from the back to no avail. It's easy to think that in a more evenly run contest things could have been reversed. The margin at the very least was flattering.
There is no Levante there on Saturday, and at weight-for-age Avantage is at an advantage, but there is still a solid rival in her path in the form of Tavi Mac who has strung three wins together and the Racing and Sports Pricing Model makes things a bit closer than the betting looks set to. More like evens v 11/4 with something like 1/2 v 7/2+ looking like being the betting on the day.
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Tavi Mac had to close quickly to round up Group One winner Calsign Mav at Awapuni last time out and that one has since stepped out and won really well since. It's a good piece of form and a Tavi Mac continues to head the right way. Another step forward and he can pose a serious challenge to Avantage and he looks worth the gamble to do just that.
As those prices would suggest, the race drops away fairly quickly. The Telegraph has been home to a string of big-priced winners in recent years, so looking for a blowout is tempting, but the Model (and the market) come up with little.
Spring Heat is next elect, and has raced competitively with Avantage in the past - including in the Railway last time. But she offers no great betting value in the eyes of the Model who is happy to stick her chips behind Tavi Mac in a facinating contest.
