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Three months of trials, and in some cases tribulations comes to a head this Saturday at the magnificent Meydan racecourse for the running of the Dubai World Cup
It is a card that epitomises international competition, featuring entries from all corners of the globe.
The stakes will be high, and I say that literally with the Dubai World Cup the richest race in the world worth an astounding $12 million (US) and fully supported by a further four rich Group 1’s and three Group 2 contests with some of the biggest players and most recognisable names in world racing hoping to land some of the big pots on offer.
I've been out here for the last few days running my eye over some of this years contenders, and in truth it is difficult to get away from those at the top of the betting (famous last words) in most of the races, but either way it will once again be one of the most incredible race meetings on the International calendar and hopefully we can find a few winners along the way.
Godolphin Mile
Muntazah will rightfully go off a warm favourite here after his 10 length demolition job on Super Saturday when he had three of these in behind including last years winner Heavy Metal, and he looks one of the more solid bets on the card.
Doug Watson has managed to get a really good tune out of the horse recently, so much so that it was suggested that the 6 year old would be a live contender for the World Cup if they went down that route. However, Watson said afterwards that he wasn’t sure if he would run out a strong 2000m but thought he had the Godolphin Mile at his mercy, needless to say the trainer is understandably bullish about his chances.
The selection likes to go from the front and even though the dirt course has played fairer this year, those who like to run along on the front still look to have an advantage, albeit it not what we saw last year.
Last years winner Heavy Metal will be trying to become just the second horse after Firebreak (2003 and 2004) to win this race twice, and he did bubble the start last time which ruined his chances as he’s another who likes to go from the front. However he was in behind the selection the start prior when he had the softer run, thus its difficult to see how he turns the form around here.
Selection-Muntazah
Dubai Gold Cup
The Dubai Gold Cup sees the much anticipated return of the Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter, who will be trying to win over 3200m first up without a prep run, which is rarely a problem for the Godolphin runners. Connections toyed with the idea of going to the Sheema Classic before deciding on the Gold Cup, which would suggest they think the progressive 4 year old son of Teofilo is ready for the testing assignment.
He showed a bit of promise in Europe last year, but went to another level when stepped up to the 3200m for the first time in the Melbourne Cup. Although he carried no weight that day, he came from seemingly an impossible position at the top of the Flemington straight, rattling home to win running away, suggesting he would be the perfect Cup types in Europe this year.
He’s the top rated runner in the race and being a 4 year old he gets 2.5kgs (5.5lbs) from the older horses, needless to say if he’s fully would up for a first up tilt he should take all the beating here, especially given that this years race is a lessor contest than recent renewals.
Of the others Freddy Head brings across Call The Wind who is a lightly raced stayer from France. He won the Group 1 Prix Du Cadran last year, a race that three time Gold Cup winner Vazirabad won in 2017, and whilst he’s got some way to go to be compared with his fellow French stayer, he’s a horse very much on the up in astute hands.
Ispolini is another young up and coming stayer from the Charlie Appleby yard, and whilst this represents his biggest test to date, its difficult not to be impressed when watching a horse storm to victory in a Group 3 race by 10 lengths, which is exactly what he did last time out when he had the re-opposing Red Galileo back in second. However rider bookings would suggest he is the second string for the yard, but what a second string to have.
The value bet is Charlie Fellows 6yo Prince Of Arran who ran a belter of a race when third in the Melbourne Cup last year behind Cross Counter. They meet on the same terms here, but he’s likely to get firmer ground, which is exactly what he wants and whilst he doesn’t have the scope of the above mentioned, he does stay and is more than capable of hitting the frame at decent odds.
Selection- Cross Counter
Al Quoz
Blue Point will be a warm favourite, and last years King Stand winner should take plenty of beating. He was scratched at the barriers when favourite in this last year after hitting his head in the stalls, and will be looking to make amends this time around.
His has been in rude health in his two lead up wins, and no doubt he’s the one they all have to beat. However he is a bit of a cabbage and caviar type in that he can look a world-beater one day (2018 King Stand) yet run like chop liver the next (2018 July Cup). Connections have said he is a more complete article as a 5 year old, and to be fair he has looked more straight forward this campaign. But at the prices in a race that has produced Group 1 winners from across the globe, Id prefer to look for a bit of value, thus I’m going to throw up two against the field at big odds.
Brave Smash is an Australian sprinter, and it’s worth noting the Australians have won this twice with Ortensia and Buffering from only a handful of challengers. Whilst he doesn’t win out of turn, he’s an honest type who is very capable at this level when he gets the right race set up. He runs his best races when he’s held up for a late run, thus he needs plenty of speed to aim at and he should get here.
He has shown by being placed in the last two Newmarket Handicaps at Flemington that he enjoys a straight course and with Meydan being a big roomy track, there are very few hard luck stories on the straight course, even for those that like to close late.
Wishful Thinker arrives from Hong Kong on the back of two handicap victories at his last two starts. Granted that handicap form isn’t usually what you look for when breaking down a Group 1 race, but in Hong Kong many of the top horses contest handicaps, with the worlds leading miler Beauty Generation (Winx aside) winning one at the start of his current campaign.
I latched onto this horse last year when he handed out future Group 2 winner Hot King Prawns first defeat in Hong Kong, and that was after running into traffic problems. He’s an out and out closer who can rattle off some big numbers late, thus like Brave Smash the likely pace of the race and the straight course will be ideal for his style of racing.
He was formerly trained in Australia (known as Katsuro) by Mick Price, but this will be his first time away from Hong Kong, and whilst there can never be any guarantees they will run to form when they first travel, if he does I believe he can be hugely competitive here at double figure odds.
Selections- Brave Smash (EW) Wishful Thinker (EW)
UAE Derby
Godolphin have won eight of the nineteen running’s of this race, whilst Coolmore have won three of the last seven renewals, thus it pays to keep both on side. Coolmore run Van Beethoven whilst Godolphin have the fillies Devine Image and Swift Rose engaged, with Divine Image the standout of the two.
The Charlie Appleby filly has been in splendid form during the carnival winning the Oaks prior an emphatic 7 length win in a Listed contest on Super Saturday. She’s one of the highest rated runners in the race and gets 2kgs (4.5lbs) from the boys, which will help her cause even further.
When she won here last time she had Estihdaaf well beaten in behind, and Estihdaaf was coming off a 5 length win over boom 3yo Walking Thunder who will be on the sharper end of the betting for this, thus the form has a very nice look to it.
The selection will only be having her fifth career start, improving every time she has stepped out and that progression looks far from over. She also possesses a wonderful strong willing attitude, one that belies her inexperience.
An interesting runner here is Jahbath from the Willaim Haggas yard. Owned by Hamdan Al Maktoum, the son of Mukhadram has won four of his five starts, all on artificial surfaces in the UK. There’s no way of telling for sure if he will take to the dirt, but he did win a minor small field handicap at Southwell by 7 lengths, and with Southwell being a slow fibre-sand surface, chances are he will, and if that’s the case he could be the surprise packet despite it being his toughest test to date.
Selection- Divine Image
Golden Shaheen
We might as well crank up The Stars Spangled Banner now as the Americans are here in force once again for the Golden Shaheen and the only real question is which one of their super star sprinters will take home the major prize.
Roy H, who was third in this last year, is the form horse having won the last two Breeders Cup Sprints and appeared better than ever when he won his prep race for this at Santa Anita in January.
He went off a red hot odds on favourite in this last year but there were excuses for the defeat as he was slow to break from the gates and got back further than he normally would, which is far from ideal on the dirt here at Meydan. He only finished half a length behind X Y Jet and he should be able to reverse that result this time around.
X Y Jet has been runner up in this the last two years and this popular front running 7 year old is more than likely going to give backers a great run for their money once again. It’s no surprise he runs well here, as it’s a track that suits natural front-runners, and he arrives here on the back of an 8L winning romp at Gulfstream albeit against inferior opposition.
Imperial Hint is the other one of the ‘big three’ from the States and would be a huge player if able to replicate the form he was in last year when winning two Grade 1’s in America. However he disappointed as favourite when 5 lengths behind Roy H in the Breeders Sprint and then was surprisingly beaten in his prep run at Tampa Bay last month when at prohibitive odds. Based on his last two spins and this being his first overseas trip, he looks the least likely of the three.
Selection- Roy H
Dubai Turf
All eyes will be on the wonder filly from Japan, Almond Eye, who will be having her first trip away from home as she tackles international company for the first time. She has been simply brilliant in her home country, taking out the fillies Triple Crown before following in the footsteps of champion fillies Vodka and Gentildonna in winning the Japan Cup.
Much has been made of the fact that she holds the world record for 2400m (albeit they were running fast times on the day and they’re timed 20 yards after the start in Japan) set when winning the Japan Cup, and it was a terrific performance form a filly only having her seventh career run, and as worrying as the thought may be for her opposition, she’s open to further improvement.
She comes out well on top on the ratings, and it nearly seems unfair that she also has a 2kgs (4.5lbs) allowance. If after all of that you’re still not convinced, keep in mind Japan have won three of the last five renewals of the race and her trainer, Sakae Kunieda, is convinced that 9 furlongs is her ideal trip at this stage of her career.
She’ll be first up since her Japan Cup win last November, which has to be a consideration, but she has settled in well here in Dubai and with her connections being Japanese based you can be assured that they have targeted this race before a potential `European campaign.
Her most likely challenger will come from the Saeed Bin Suroor inmate Dream Castle who has won all three starts at the carnival, including the Group 1 Jebel Hatta last time out when he had three of these behind. However once you take into account the fillies allowance he is 5kgs (11lbs) on the wrong side of the ratings with the filly and will need to go to another level if she turns up at her best.
Vivlos deserves a mention as she did win this race two years ago and was placed behind Benbatl last year, but she is rated 5kgs (11lbs) inferior to Almond Eye with no upside and looks a minor place chance. Coolmore send over the filly I Can Fly, who did run second to Roaring Lion on Champions day at Ascot last year, but Roaring Lion struggled in the ground that day and the Aiden O’Brien filly would have to run a career best to get involved.
Selection- Almond Eye
Sheema Classic
The resurgence of the Godolphin brand over the last couple of years has continued during this years carnival, and even by their lofty standards they have had an incredibly successful carnival with that success likely to continue here with Old Persian.
This 4 year old from the Charlie Appleby yard has always been held in high regard and showed what he was capable of last year when winning the Great Voltigeur at York, with eventual Melbourne Cup and Doncaster St Leger winners Cross Counter and Kew Gardens in behind.
He was put away after travelling strongly but not seeing out the trip in the St Leger last September, before retuning on Super Saturday to win the Dubai City of Gold first up from the re-opposing Racing History, and although the margin may have been small (short head) it was a ‘big’ win none the less.
He tracked the leaders throughout and was tight for room and looked as if for all money he would be an unlucky loser after suffering significant traffic issues, but once William Buick was able to spot a bit of daylight, Old Persian demonstrated a change of gear you normally associate with proper Group 1 types, hitting the line with what looked to be plenty left in the locker.
He was a bit fresh in the paddock that night and he should strip fitter for his main assignment. Its worth noting the Charlie Appleby has targeted this race with him for some time now and you don’t need me to tell you how astute the yard have been when targeting races around the globe in the last eighteen months.
The dangers are likely to be Magic Wand and Rey De Oro, with the latter being the highest rated runner in the contest. However the Japanese raider failed in this race last year when joint favourite in behind Hawkbill. But no doubt he is better than that and he did win the Group 1 Tenno Sho (Autumn edition) last time out in which he had some smart types in behind.
Magic Wand is an interesting runner for Aiden O’Brien and Coolmore. In truth she is yet to prove herself at this level, having only won to Group 2 level in eleven career spins, and she has a bit to find on the ratings even with a fillies allowance factored in. But she ran well enough when second in the Pegasus Turf last time out and the connections always need to be respected.
Selection-Old Persian
Dubai World Cup
Thunder Snow returns to defend the title he won last year as a 4yo having won the Derby in 2017. He’s loves it around here, having not been outside of the first two in seven starts, and once again he has to be considered among the leading chances.
However two things concern me, firstly he was beaten by the re-opposing Capezzano in his prep run and although he was also beaten last year in his lead up run and will strip fitter for the spin, he was beaten to the tune of 10 lengths. You can argue that margins can be exaggerated on the dirt here at Meydan, nonetheless, it’s going to take a monster effort to turn that form around.
I do like the horse, he’s tough, he’s been highly tried, strongly campaigned, and any horse who is able to win Group 1s on turf and dirt earns my respect. But I can’t help but feel everything fell into place for him last year. North America, who would have led the race, missed the kick and Thunder Snow found himself on the front carving out soft sectionals under a masterful ride from Christophe Soumillion, and any horse who can get away with that is going to be tough to run down. So I’m prepared to take on the favourite, (at time of writing), and look elsewhere.
The Americans can never be underestimated in the World Cup, and the kings of dirt have won the race nine times since its inception in 1996. The American contingent this year is made up of Audible, Gunnevera, Pavel, Yoshida and Seeking The Soul. Its interesting that all of them tend to run their best when held up, and they should get a strong tempo to aim at here. But none of them are at the same level as recent US winners Arrogate, California Chrome, Animal Kingdom, Curlin etc, and may struggle to chase down the speed horses.
North America has been in slashing form this season and provided he breaks cleanly he’ll be very much at the head of proceedings from the off. My concern is the trip, which may sound silly considering he’s a Group 1 winner over 2000m and had Thunder Snow back in second on that occasion. But the fact remains that when you go over his form, his highest rated performances are nearly all over 1600m. Provided he breaks cleanly I have no doubt he will be there for a long way, but things could get very shaky over the last furlong or so.
So by the power of deduction, not to mention a hugely impressive prep run, Capezzano is my pick for the World Cup. He’s superbly bred, as you would expect being an ex Godolphin inmate, and his pedigree is all about dirt. He’s lightly raced for a 5yo and has taken a while to put it all together. But he has looked a different horse since been fitted with a hood, winning his last three on the bounce, and the way he won his prep run on Super Saturday was jaw dropping.
No doubt Thunder Snow would have needed the run that night, but Capezzano put 10 lengths on him, and won seemingly with something in the tank. The race should set up with him and North America on the front end from their respective draws in 2 and 3 looking ideal for both.
He showed last time that he runs out a strong 2000m, which is no surprise when you look at his pedigree, and he’s a horse who has come good at exactly the right time. If he can reproduce his effort from Super Saturday, and there’s no reason to think he wont, then, he should take plenty of beating in this years World Cup
Selection- Capezzano
