3 minute read

Brett Davis runs the rule over Sha Tin this afternoon.

It's meeting 80 and all roads lead to Shatin for the final pattern races of the season...The Premier Cup run at 1400m and The Premier Plate run over the 1800m. These Group 3 contests are both decided under handicap conditions and in conjunction with a very competitive undercard, are likely to dish out good opportunities for both favourite backers and value punters a like.

The rail returns to the A course for the first time since the 24th of May providing space and a brand new pad of grass to gallop on, despite being so close to seasons end.

In the championship race only three wins seperate Zac Purton and Jo Moreira for the jockeys title, with four wins separating Ricky Yui, Tony Cruz and  Francis Lui in the trainers championship.

So with just over a handful of meetings remaining expect plenty of niggle on track and tension in the air, as another sensational season of racing draws to an end.

R1 - 11,9,1,6,12

R2 - 1,5,12,3,2

Race 3

#5 Perfect Match from day one has regularly displayed the heart, characteristics and natural talent required to climb the steep mountain of Hong Kong Racing. Today he arrives ready to tackle his first group race and realistically it couldn't look much better for him on paper. He gives away rating points yes but enters the race relatively fresh, still on the up with a feather to carry, and over his pet course and distance. The speed map also suggests he's a moral to lead and likely to dictate thereafter. With all that taking place he only looks vulnerable to bad luck or a superior turn of foot. Both of which I'm prepared to bet against.
#1 Thanks Forever is clearly the measuring stick and following a defining performance under handicap conditions last outing must be highly respected. The issue today for Hong Kong's current best sprinter are the combination of up in trip and up in weight. There's also the concern of fatigue, having been up a long time and now searching for that well deserved rest.
#2 Fat Turtle actually found the line better than the top weight last start and has a sound record from similar races in the past. The rise to 1400m is a little query but I'm anticipating an aggressive ride from Moreira and wont be at all surprised to see him in the face of the leader on straightening.
#3 Jolly Banner has often been underestimated in his career and the small field plays in to his hands. He's a touch unreliable these days but a cagey old timer who can throw in a blinder when he's feeling well.
#4 Northern Superstar hasn't raced since February due to a bled but has performed soundly in trials approaching his return to the races. The blinkers have been added for the first time and he possess a decent engine, however it hasn't fired on all cylinders since he arrived.

Selections : 5,1,2,3,4

R4 - 5,8,2,1,4

R5 - 2,1,3,9,8

R6 - 10,6,12,1,2

R7 - 6,7,8,4,11

Race 8

The Premier Plate concludes Group racing for another season in Hong Kong and what an intriguing mix of form lines converge together here.

#2 Furore has recaptured his Derby winning form in recent starts and I'm putting it down to the change of stable. He left the Frankie Lor stable in February and joined Tony Cruz. Since then with a spring in his step he's recorded three highly rated performances in defeat. He's back to 1800m today which holds no concerns and drawn ideally to secure the perfect run. In what looks a potentially tricky and tactical race he comes up as the on top and most reliable selection.
#4 More Than This has been freshened since competiting at the highest level in April. With a strong foundation of residual fitness and a couple of quiet trials leading in I'm expecting a strong crack at the prize the last 100m.
#1 Southern Legend has been simply Incredible at the highest level season after season. Despite all the weight today and start twelve for the season he's an undeniable chance once again, who deserves nothing but admiration.
#7 Helene Leading Star had legitimate excuses in the Queen Mother Memorial Cup last outing where he started 2.2Fav in betting. He can easily atone and I'd expect there to be plenty of support for him again in the betting.
#8 Savvy Nine busted his gut chasing Exultant over the mile and a half recently which does concern me tremendously. He's the horse in this race I'm most excited about but he's struggled to find that little bit extra this season when needed. With an off season under his belt and a good rest he'll be a horse to follow with confidence.

Selections : 2,4,1,7,8

R9 - 6,5,13,3,9

R10 - 5,10,2,7,4

Race 11

#5 Good Luck Friend is a smart 3yo that has plenty of upside and a promising career ahead. In a race that declares a hot tempo I envisage him settling behind the leading division. As they approach the home bend Moreira shall be mindful of potential tiring leaders dropping back in his lap, and look to edge of the rail in to the clear. If all that takes place smoothly then he has what it takes thereafter to go on and win.
#12 Eligere is only a little tacker but has a powerful kick over the final 200m. He's been threatening to win a race similar to this for a while now and the early strong sectionals should set things up perfectly.
#8 Biz Power now resides at his third stable since arriving to Hong Kong and it's fair to say he's going the best he's ever gone. He's another that can appreciate the tempo and Purton sticking with him is a strong push in his favour.
#14 Like That emerges from two solid wins in griffin company to a class 3 assignment against the older horses. The handicappers have allotted the 2yo a rating of 64 which gives him plenty to work with. Generally these youngster find it difficult to adapt quickly to the level required and that's most likely going to be the case again. However, he does have a little swagger about him this lad and I'm giving him some chance.
#7 Exceptional Nice makes his Hong Kong debut and his work and trials have been satisfactory. When winning in Australia he wore blinkers so he may take a run, but I'm predicting some market movement late in the betting which gives me confidence he can run well.

Selections : 5,12,8,14,7