Search

show me:

Davis Files : Happy Valley Preview - 11th November 2020

3 minute read

Brett Davis provides exclusive preview of Happy Valley races.

Picture: HKJC

Race 1

#3 Speedy Optimist returned to the races last month following a year off the scene due to serious health concerns. In October 2019 he underwent colic surgery and then in April 2020, whilst exercising at Conghua, suffered an injury to his left front suspensory. Here we are now six months down the track and he'll front up tonight for his second start in a very long time. He'd trialled particularly well prior to his first up run where he finished a hard closing and encouraging third. The plan from the wide draw that night was obviously to let him find a comfort zone and thereafter hit the line, which is exactly what he did in eye catching fashion. There's always the chance the old second up syndrome may raise its ugly head after such a long break, so perhaps there might be some value around. But in all likelihood from the inside draw and with Purton again aboard he only needs to step well to win.
#4 The Abraxas is still a maiden from twenty six starts and the outside draw doesn't make his task look any easier. What he does possess however that many in this don't is lightning gate speed and the capacity to bust up those chasing. Moreira knows his limitations and the pair blasted to victory in a recent 800m trial at shatin. He's third up and shall make his presence felt for a long long way.
#7 Green Envy along with the top selection are the two horses contesting this race that have the scope and potential to go higher in class. This fellow is big, bulky, raw and even a little goofy but he owns a reasonable sized engine. It's taken a long time for the penny to drop and trainer Casper Fownes has been extremely dedicated and patient, working with him now for over a season. He generally struggles through the first half but continues to build during the later half, eventually finding the line well. There are certainly wins awaiting if he sharpens his mindset and gets moving early.
#2 Prawn Yeah Yeah was declared a roarer eighteen months ago and has since undergone corrective surgery. He's won a race since down the straight at shatin and that victory occurred of an almost identical rating. He's a hit miss option generally and tonight is no different but what does appear in his favour is the class, plus the way in which the race is likely be run.
When he's won he's sat with cover, absorbed the pace, then pounced on the tiring when vulnerable. He's likely to receive that race pattern again tonight.
#6 Everbrave is one of the most inconsistent horses going around so it's difficult to speak to highly of him. But he deserves a good mention tonight because he's fit, drawn well and in the right class. However, the biggest tick belongs to his travelling companion, the man behind the wheel Neil Callan. Neil is a standover jockey who's aggressive, vigorous and controlling which is just what this 7yo needs. So it's definitely worthy of note that there record together is good.

Selections : 3,4,7,2,6

R2 - 3,5,6,12,10

R3 - 3,9,6,1,10

R4 - 5,9,1,3,8

R5 - 8,4,5,2,3

R6 - 6,4,8,11,2

R7 - 1,7,6,5,11

Race 8

#1 Sky Darci is another very exciting young horse that races in the yellow and green of owner Jessica Kwan and family. Casper Fownes also trains the very exciting Sky Field for them, along with Sky Gem(Race 2) and previously a PPG called Grace Heart, who won five races and over four million HKD in prize money. I've selected two short price favourites tonight in the highlighted events (Race 1 and Race 8) which is generally something I try to avoid. But the pair clearly stand out and all other races have a high level of volatility attached to there make up. Sky Darci has now reached the top of class 3 and must carry the full impost of weight, but he's destined for bigger and better in the future so it's difficult to tip against him.
#2 Loving A Boom has only won the one race since his arrival to Hong Kong with that win occurring in this class, over this distance and at this track two seasons ago. The two runs back this campaign have been competitive and its always been apparent he's best when ridden with cover. He's one of many chances for the multiples and should something go wrong with the favourite, who knows he might just win.
#7 Flying Bonus is yet to win in class 3 but he's gone desperately close on quite a few occasions. Zac Purton has ridden him once and they were unplaced on that occasion but he must have been attracted to the horses courageous effort recently, or is he just taking over from Karis Teetan who's opted to ride the newcomer
#4 Celestial Power. Either way they're both runners of interest.
#10 Cue The Music won his only race off a handicap fifteen points higher than his current mark of 65, which was achieved last season leading all the way. That highlights his ability but he's struggled since to go on with the job. He was also place at Group 1 level in South Africa as a 2yo before his import, again highlighting his capabilities. Interestingly there was early money for him on the Hong Kong tote yesterday so perhaps he's worthy of inclusion.
#5 Farshad gets the final guernsey as he's more than capable of finding the frame but highly unpredictable. I find it intriguing, but positive, he runs first up over a mile then drops back to 1200m second up. His record this course and distance and in this class is by no means disgraceful. It's a shy at the stumps from a long way out because he's erratic and often a difficult ride, but he'll be a price and could possibly spring a little surprise.

Selections : 1,2,7,10,5
Racing and Sports

Think. Is this a bet you really want to place?

For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au