3 minute read
Racing and Sports preview the 2021 Goodwood Cup on the opening day of Glorious Goodwood.
Goodwood's summer festival kicks off with the Goodwood Cup where Stradivarius goes for an unprecedented fifth win in the famous two-mile contest.
Stradivarius has often been a bit of a troublemaker for Racing and Sports' pricing model. He is as well connected as they come - Dettori and Gosden have an impact as big as any in world racing - but he has often been priced much shorter than his ratings would imply.
Taking him on was not a particularly lucrative endeavour through 2018 and 2019 when he won ten races on the bounce but three from nine since, and just one of his last five, have squared things up a bit.
The trick to taking him on (fairly obviously) is having a decent tool running for you. Kew Gardens, Ghaiyyath, Anthony Van Dyk and Trueshan have all fit that bill and it is the last named that looks best placed to rip him down again tonight.
Trueshan may not have the world conquering connections of Stradivarius but Doyle and King have linked up to prove a bit better than average and what they have on their side tonight is a bank of recent ratings that can win it - particularly with the ground going their way.
His soft-ground smash up in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot last season leaps from the page for this. It's as good, if not better, than anything Stradivarius has done in over 12 months since his 2020 Gold Cup win and while the early market is starting to cotton on to this the Racing and Sports Pricing Model thinks it is Trueshan who should be sent around favourite. As a product of this, he is seen as the bet in a race.
The other Group races on the card are the Vintage Stakes for the two-year-olds, which looks tricky and priced about right, and the Lennox which fits the mould of what the Racing and Sports pricing model is typically looking for.
That is, a combination of strong ratings and connections that win more than their share. Last year's Lennox winner Space Blues ticks both of those boxes. He is good enough to win a Lennox (that one is fairly straighforward) and Appleby/Buick sits right up alongside Gosden/Dettori terms of winning impact.
They win a lot, and of course a great deal of that happens when they link up with the best horse. Appleby alone has a bigger impact at Goodwood than any trainer bar Gosden - edging out William Haggas on that score.
Appleby also settles the second favourite, Creative Force, and he doesn't lose much for having James Doyle to steer, but Buick has been more lethal at Goodwood, lethal over a greater number of rides for Appleby, and (on exposed form at least) has the slightly better ride tonight.
Recommended bets: Back Trueshan in the Goodwood Cup. Back Space Blues in the Lennox Stakes.
