3 minute read
Racing and Sports preview the 2021 Irish Derby from The Curragh.
It's hard to escape the thinking that the Irish Derby has lost some lustre over the past decade. Since a good heat in 2017 when Capri beat Cracksman with the Derby winner in third and a subsequent Arc winner in fourth, we have had three forgettable winners and prior to that 2017 Derby we had three odds-on faves winning without needing their best and without making for much in the way of betting interest.
The 2021 Irish Derby certainly delivers on that front. There is a clear favourite in High Definition who is talented but opposable with several lively options away from him. Options that the Racing and Sports Pricing Model prefers in early markets.
The key chances pin together in the form book. High Definition ran behind Hurricane Lane in the Dante at York before that one split Mojo Star and Mac Swiney at Epsom.
High Definition took some winding up at York (not for the first time in his short career to date) and the longer trip looks an obvious plus for him. The market has done doubt leapt upon that. Fair enough. He is strongly connected and started shorter than Hurricane Lane at York. But there should be very little between them based on the Racing and Sports Pricing Model. Hurricane Lane certainly lacks nothing when it comes to connections. Buick and Appleby are as prolific as any.
Mojo Star beat Hurricane Lane at Epsom but it is not insignificant that the maiden was outrunning odds of 50/1 there against Hurricane Lane and Mac Swiney and 6/1 and 8/1 respectively.
The early market has Mojo Lane's chances updating by around 4x that pair now. It's a big update on the back of one run. One run from a horse with the right sort of profile to be making rapidly changing assessments of, but still a big change, and he must be more likely to regress on that effort than the pair that chased him home.
Hurricane Lane, all things considered, appeals as a bet. Mac Swiney could be too with his Irish Guineas run looking a standout bit of form and something that piques the interest of our ratings-loving Model. But it was in a slowly run mile that he knocked off his talented stablemate Poetic Flare and he went backwards up in trip. That must niggle.
It is this line that draws in the best chance from outside the main market fancies - Van Gogh.
He was plain in the French Derby last time but his Irish Guineas third stacks up and he started shorter than Mac Swiney that day. 14/1 is probably no steal but it doesn't seem unfair either for one that a case can be made for.
Recommended Bets: Back Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby.
