The Chester Vase is the feature on the opening day of Chester's May Festival but it looks a very tricky affair and Racing and Sports' pricing model seems as confused as anyone trying to sort that out. That's not the case when it comes to the Cheshire Oaks run earlier on the card, however, with the Mail Model arriving at a market with a nice betting shape about it.
Assessed Prices: Mehdaayih $3.25; Secret Thoughts $3.25; Manuela De Vega $8.00; Fanny Logan $8.50.
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Twelve go to post for the Oaks but the model finds 86% in it's top four chances - with a much steeper rise in likelihood to the top two chances than the early betting markets.
Around $5.00 and $4.00 are being bet about Mehdaayih and Secret Thoughts early doors and approx 5/4 the pair is seen as a gamble worth having my the model who likes plenty about both.
Like his master the model is a bit of a nut for time ratings and both of these come off good recent performances against the clock. Mehdaayih only had one to beat when resuming but (somewhat surprisingly) she managed to post a good time despite the non-competitive nature of things there and looks a real talent, while Secret Thoughts did more than enough in a high-rating Guineas trial in Ireland.
That was over 1408m and so she faces an aprupt rise in trip here but she's bred to not only cope but improve for that change and her stable's strike rate leaps from 19% to 26% first to second up - the model quite rightly likes what he sees there.