Another night at York and sees another round of John Gosden unleashing the big guns but, as previously discussed, Racing and Sports' Australian-born model likes recent form and is very skeptical about horses resuming. Given that, odds-on Yorskshire Cup-favourite Stradivarius is much less likely to make a winning return in the eyes of the model than in the eyes of the early British betting market.
Assessed Prices: Stradivarius $2.50; Ispolini $4.00; Mootsadir $9.50; Southern France $9.50.
Early betting has Stradivarius trading around $1.70. He was a dominant winner of the race last year and produced a big rating in what proved the start of an unbeaten campaign. Good horse. Hard to beat. But it's worth trying.
The model tries primarily with Ispolini who has more recent form in the book - and it's good form. He ran good figures winning by a space two back and then pushed the very smart Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter in the Dubai Gold Cup.
That form isn't to be sneezed at and neither are his connections or his upside. There's enough to like to take him into battle with the champ.
Basically, the model sees Ispolini as more likely to run to his best form than Stradivarius is to run to his, and their ranges of likely ratings overlap.
The model would also be having Mootsadir on side at big odds. The market no doubt sees the stumbling block that is not only bringing synthetic form to turf but needing to improve on it. The model knows nothing about that, it just sees a ratings profile spiralling in the right direction. On around 10% of occasions, where the top dogs run to their low end and he keeps spiralling the right way, he wins.