Jockeys matter to the Racing and Sports pricing model that we are running over the British flat season and that is evident when we look at it's assessment of the 2019 Investec Oaks from Epsom this Friday.
Assessed Prices: Pink Dogwood $4.00; Anapurna $4.80; Mehdaayih $5.50; Maqsad $7.50.
Frankie Dettori and Ryan Moore are responsible for winning a lot of races. This of course has plenty to do with their ties to powerhouse stables (John Gosden and Aidan O'Brien respectively) but regardless of why they ride a lot of winners the very fact that they do makes them a key variable in the quest to find them. Dettori is currently winning at 28%, Moore at 26%. And for those big yards they link up at 30% and 31% respectively.
Among the jockeys engaged in Friday's Oaks they stand clear and in a race where the form is evenly matched (The Oaks lacks anything boasting a standout ratings profile) they matter to the model.
Of course the market is well aware of this and Moore's mount Pink Dogwood seems very well found for one with her form. Given her high-striking connections this is perhaps for good reason - the model says she is (narrowly) the most likely winner of the race - but it's hard to see where we would be getting an edge in 5/2.
Dettori's mount does offer an edge - or at least the potential for one. She beat nothing at Lingfield but she did it well and the time was okay. Better than $7.00 is worth taking in the model's view - as is better than $9.00 about Maqsad who brings the best form through the Pretty Polly and looks a little bit undersold.
The Coronation Cup earlier on the card also throws up some betting options based on the model's prices.
Assessed Prices: Old Persian $3.30; Kew Gardens $6.00; Lah Ti Dar $7.50; Salouen $9.00.
Again the Moore/O'Brien and Dettori/Gosden combinations find themselves up among the key winning hopes, but the form of Old Persian (and his prolific trainer) makes him a more likely winner in the model's eyes.
Kew Gardens and Lah Ti Dar left Old Persian behind in the St Leger last season but there wasn't a great deal between Old Persian and Kew Gardens (Cross Counter in between) when the former won a high-rating Great Voltiguer over this trip at York prior to the Leger and his form in Dubai showed that he has come back better at four.
It would be unfair to say Kew Gardens hasn't come back based on his heavy-track return at Chester, and he will surely come on for that, but that down rating can't and won't be ignored by the model. It's advantage Old Persian on Friday.