3 minute read
The Racing and Sports Priceline for select races on day three of Royal Ascot 2019.
We're at the halfway mark of the Royal Meeting and on the back of another night of mixed results for Racing and Sports' pricing model. Crystal Ocean (which this author poorly pubished the wrong price for in this article. Ironic given the experiment is largely about removing human error...) put a smile on The Model's dial but the Queen's Vase didn't with long-odds fancy Nayef Road running well but ultimately settling for third, while the well-fancied Norway was never a factor and is probably destined to join Lloyd Williams and run midfield in a couple of country cups down under...
Day three looks a terrific card of racing. We'd just love to see the weather take a turn for the better - it is reportedly summer in the UK - with the three races we will be focusing The Model on all being run on the softer round course.
Hampton Court Stakes: Cape Of Good Hope $3.00; Sangarius $6.00; Roseman $10.00; Fox Chairman $10.00; King Ottokar $12.00.
Ribblesdale Stakes: Fleeting $2.70; Queen Power $5.00; Star Catcher $11.00; Frankellina $13.00; Peach Tree $13.00.
Ascot Gold Cup: Stradivarius $2.9; Cross Counter $6.00; Dee Ex Bee $6.00; Called To The Bar $9.00; Flag Of Honour $13.00.
First thing to note: The Model and the market see the Gold Cup fairly similarly and there doesn't look a bet there bar some fringe action on the likes of Called To The Bar and Flag Of Honour. It's a wonderful edition of a great race with the champ Stradivarius faced with a much sterner task than is typically put in front of him - particularly when we throw testing ground into the equation. Sterner and potentially fairly different task - so The Model's view that he is best left alone sits well.
The Model would undoubtedly like Cross Counter more than it does but as we've mentioned several times she frowns upon first-up runners and the 82 days between runs for Cross Counter - while of little concern to most - cools her interest in a very cool horse.
The market and The Model are also fairly well aligned in the Ribblesdale but it would be interesting if 2-1 was bet about Fleeting which is fairly possible/probable given her SP profile.
The best betting in the eyes of The Model comes up in race two. Cape Of Good Hope comes through a really fast French Derby. The Model doesn't buy into cross-channel rivalry but betting markets (particularly early ones) may a little bit.
That's not the only fast form on offer here. The Heron was quick and it's winner was well backed late before very nearly winning the St James's Palace on Tuesday. Sangarius and Roseman were both quick chasing him at Sandown and like Cape Of Good Hope they have what makes the The Model purr - fast form, good jockeys and good trainers.
