3 minute read
The Racing and Sports Priceline for select races on day four of Royal Ascot.
A little bit of success in the main betting race of the third day of the Royal Meeting and, perhaps more importantly, a break in the weather, has things poised ahead of a fourth day that has a slightly different shape about it.
That shape is races with obvious and well-fancied favourites in the three races we are looking at, and all of them are trained by Aidan O'Brien.
King Edward VII Stakes: Japan $2.30; Pablo Escobarr $10.00; Private Secretary $10.00; Pondus $10.00; Bangkok $13.00; Humanitarian $13.00.
Commonwealth Cup: Ten Sovereigns $2.00; Jash $5.00; Khaadem $10.00; Hello Youmzain $10.00; Advertise $15.00.
Coronation Stakes: Hermosa $1.80; Pretty Pollyanna $8.00; Jubiloso $9.00.
We're looking down the barrel of a fairly quiet night with prices largely in line with current betting. The Model makes Japan about the same price as the early market but finds nothing but little bits around the fringes away from him. His Derby run last time stands out, and he should improve again on that. The Model also likes that he is well connected (part of the reason it is happy to get in line with all three of these obvious favourites) but so are several of the extremely evenly matched dangers. Stalemate...
Better than even money can be found about Ten Sovereigns . The Model sees a little edge there without wanting to throw the kitchen sink at it. High striking connections play a role but he also has clearly the best ratings in the race. In fact, his fifth in the Guineas rates higher than anything produced by the rest of these this season despite him failing to fully see out the trip. Only Jash and Advertise have ratings from last season to match it and in the case of Jash that rating comes from when chasing home Ten Sovereigns in a very solid Middle Park.
That rating actually gives him a slightly better chance than the early betting as well. There was nothing wrong with his return either. Hello Youmzain and Khaadem won key trials but in poor times.
The Coronation favourite Hermosa looks even more solid. She was fast at Newmarket and even faster at the Curragh. That big fast win appeals to The Model, and it finds her very short, in part due to the opposite being true of the French fillies. The French 1000 Guineas rated through the floor. The winner maybe three from three (The Model likes that!) but her Group 1 success was in name only and she is seen as having many, many lengths to find on Hermosa.
Click here for free form, ratings, speed maps and worksheets for Royal Ascot tonight
The best time away from Hermosa belongs to the horse who chased her home at the Curragh. Pretty Pollyanna was pretty good chasing such a performance first-up there and she was a times-nerd heroine back at the July meeting last year. The return hinted that she could be ready to return to something like that July peak which makes her the toughest for Hermosa to beat once again.
Jubiloso is well connected and has a lovely profile. Her rating from last time actually eclipsed the French Guineas rating for all that it was just a Newbury Novice. The Model may see improvement but it would be fairly rare for one to take the sort of leap required to topple an on-song Hermosa, however good the profile.
