As we have discussed in previous editions, the Racing and Sports pricing model that we are running over feature races in the UK this flat season learned it's craft in Australia. The Model arrives at winning probabilities by considering a horses previous performance ratings in the context of how many starts they have had, who trains them, and who is riding them, but it also considers where they are in their current form cycle - something (generally speaking) given much more consideration in Australia (certainly in punditry if not in betting markets) than in England.
In England, horses tend to bounce from target race to target race and so Enable turns up in the Group 1 Eclipse wihout having run for 245 days. In Australia, that Enable was resuming in such a test would not only be a talking point, it would be the talking point. The market in the UK barely seems to care - best horse, odds on, as you were.... The Model, however, cares, and considers it fairly unlikely that she will be at or near her best on Saturday. That means, over thousands of simulations, there are a lot more wins available for the others when they peak. And the one that The Model sees peaking a lot here is Magical .
Assessed Prices: Enable $2.80; Magical $3.20; Regal Reality $11.00; Mustashry $11.00.
The Model still gives the edge to Enable, but only just, and the bet in the race is certainly Magical in The Model's eyes with 4/1 in early markets an appealing gamble. Very little split the pair at the Breeder's Cup where the pair both flew into the contest of Group 1 wins. Now Magical gets a crack at the champ off a break and with her focus months down the track in Paris. In The Model's backyard, down in Straya, this is a much tighter contest.