Twelve months ago Mirage Dancer was touched off in the Princess Of Wales's Stakes by subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Best Solution and the Racing and Sports Pricing Model thinks another pesky Blue Jacket is a strong chance to edge him out at Newmarket tonight.
Assessed Prices: Masar $2.60; Mirage Dancer $2.80; Baghdad $9.00.
One of the great racing aphorisms goes: "It doesn't matter that you like a horse. All that matters is how much you like a horse."
The Model puts Masar in Seat 1A tonight. But ranking him one means little when that ranking is accompanied by a winning chance of 38% and the betting market says it's closer to 45%.
Things went wrong for Masar first up at Ascot and he's very likely to return a higher rating tonight at Newmarket. But Mirage Dancer not only posted a higher rating performance finishing ahead of him at Ascot, he has a string of similarly strong figures to his name and looks highly likely to post another solid mark in what has to be seen as a very positive scenario for him.
So for all that Masar's Derby-winning rating wins the race, there are several not-so-Derby-winning ratings in his history that will leave the door wide open for the monotonous Mirage Dancer.
The Model is betting on that occuring more often than the market thinks it does.