3 minute read

The Racing and Sports Priceline for the 2019 Irish Oaks from the Curragh.

The Pretty Polly form is to the fore in an interesting edition of the Irish Oaks from The Curragh and Racing and Sports Pricing Model finds a bet at the top end of the market. 

Assessed Prices: Pink Dogwood $3.00; Iridessa $4.50; Star Catcher $7.00; Fleeting $11.00; Antonia De Vega $11.00. 

The top of the betting for the Irish Oaks sees a duel between Iridessa and Pink Dogwood who ran first and third in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the same track in the lead up. The Model agrees that they are the key pair to assess but it marks them the other way around, and fairly conclusively so. 

It is worth noting that in the Pretty Polly that same duel was priced up with Pink Dogwood the much more likely winner, $2.1 to $10.9 on the exchange. Iridessa won the race, and that counts for plenty, but what we learned there doesn't mean everything that we knew going into the race - everything that set up that 2.1 v 10.9 - gets tossed out the window. 

This model doesn't actually know the SP's last time, just the ratings they each ran to. It does know that the two fillies have similar ratings profiles, though, and it knows that one of them has the Aidan O'Brien/Ryan Moore combo that links up to win a lot of races. So that The Model lands here without knowing about SP's is interesting. The edge may well be with Pink Dogwood before we even consider what we know about the prior expectation of an efficient market last time. 

Ultimately, prices $3.75 and better look worth taking about Pink Dogwood, and that is just what The Model will be doing.