3 minute read
The Racing and Sports Priceline for the 2019 Nassau Stakes on day three of the Goodwood Festival.
The card for day three of Glorious Goodwood might be the pick of the week's racing to date and, as has been the theme of the meeting so far, the punters look well placed in the eyes of Racing and Sports' pricing model.
Assessed Prices:
Richmond Stakes: Threat $2.30; Guildsman $4.5; Golden Horde $7.50.
Gordon Stakes: Constantinople $3.50; Spanish Mission $3.80; Jalmoud $5.00; Dal Horrisgle $10.00
Nassau Stakes: Hermosa $2.30; Mehdaayih $5.50; Rawdaa $10.00; Channel $13.00
In the Richmond Stakes, the form from the Coventry at Royal Ascot rates head and shoulders above anything else on offer and so the second, third and fifth from that race account for 80% of the winning chances according to The Model.
Threat was the best of the trio there and comes here having had less starts. Less starts and less opportunity makes him the most dangerous of the trio but the public market has already figured that one out. The early betting gives that top three something like 60% of the market so there's betting opportunities there.
Constantinople is the top pick what looks a really good Gordon Stakes. The author loves what he did at Ascot, and desparely wants to find him, but The Model sees Constantinople as being very well found at this stage in the betting with the edge in those on the next line - Spanish Mssion and Jalmoud.
True enough, their last start ratings stack right up with Constantinople's and he will have to improve again. Jalmoud is very interesting coming back from rapidly improving performances around good horses in France where the form can go slightly undervalued in the Old Dart on occasion.
The author and The Model fall back in line in the Nassau with both expecting to see something more like 5/4 about Hermosa only to be pleasantly surprised by the best part of 2/1 being bet. She posted far and away the best rating on offer here when blitzing the Irish 1000 Guineas and absolutely screamed Nassau off that.
Mehdaayih can be the danger but the French form doesn't look missed this time - Gosden and Dettori clearly take some missing at the moment...
Despite a positive twist courtesy of those powerful connections Mehdaayih has a good bit to find if Hermosa produces her best and the same can be said of French Oaks winner Channel. Nice horse, off a nice win, but Hermosa has busted clocks while Channel has not. Of course, she has gotten to a smart level quickly, and that is a bonus for her, but her base is too far back to be leapfroging a filly like Hermosa very often - no more often than 7% of the time according to The Model.
