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The Racing and Sports Pricing Model for Day One of the Future Champions Festival from Newmarket.
The opening day of the Future Champions Festival from Newmarket is headlined by the Group One Fillies Mile where the early favourite is Roger Charlton's Quadrilateral .
We'll publish prices from Racing and Sports' Pricing Model, as we have been for selected races throughout the season, for the major two-year-old races over the two day card.
Assessed Prices:
Cornwallis Stakes: Platinum Star $1.70; Lazuli $8.50; Dream Shot $8.50; Good Vibes $13.00.
Oh So Sharp Stakes: Stylistique $2.80; Final Song $3.60; Wejdan $7.00; Rose Of Kildare $7.50.
Fillies Mile: Quadrilateral $3.30; Cayenne Pepper $4.00; Love $5.50; Powerful Breeze $8.00; Boomer $8.00.
One of the interesting things about running two-year-old races through the Model is that there is often a much wider range of values/ratings across the field. It's easy enough to run Monte Carlo simulations etc over a field with runs represented by a good quality rating, but modelling upside is a tough ask. We can use some simple statistical pointers to future improvement/wins, like good jockeys, trainers, pace scenarios etc but betting markets, with their wisdom from crowds, take a power of topping in this field.
Channeling famous mathematician George Box and his quote "All models are wrong; some models are useful" we can press on into Future Champions Weekend knowing that while these prices are very likely imperfect they have proven useful over the course of the season, identifying bets via consistent method.
The bets most clearly identified by the Model against early markets tonight are Platinum Star and Dream Shot in the opener. Stylistique and Rose Of Kildare in the Oh So Sharp, and Boomer in a Fillies Mile market that largely agrees with our prices.
Click here for the Priceline for Day Two of the Future Champions Festival
