3 minute read
The Racing and Sports Priceline for the Nassau Stakes on day three of the 2020 Goodwood Festival.
A messy but ultimately high-class and hugely entertaining edition of the Sussex Stakes turned out well for the Racing and Sports Pricing Model and the Nassau Stakes shapes as another good betting opportunity with a few key variables connecting away from where most of the early market action is taking place.
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The betting is headed up by Fancy Blue, winner of the Prix Diane last time, and Nazeef who arrives via a sixth straight win in the Falmouth at Newmarket's July meeting.
A pair of last-start Group One winners have strong claims of course. Of that pair, The Model finds more to like about Nazeef but not any more to like than the market seems to have found.
Fancy Blue looks like being sent off too short despite the booking of Ryan Moore with Magic Wand losing nothing (in fact gaining slightly according to The Model) through the booking of Frankie Dettori.
While Magic Wand lacks the potential for higher future ratings that the two at the head of the betting possess, she has plenty of form to match those Group One winners - including last start when she ran with credit in the Eclipse and produced a figure that, reproduced tonight, would go a long way to winning the Nassau.
It's beyond the scope of The Model, which aims to keep things simple and largely objective, but there is a pace angle to fancy with Magic Wand as well. Dettori looks like getting the front if he wants it (he should) and none are better at owning things from there. With Magic Wand he has a very tough and reliable parter to go through with that plan for him.
Last year's winner Deidre is the other trading at single figures in the early betting, and she's going to be assessed fairly similarly by the Model, but ultimately the betting edge in her eyes is with Magic Wand against the top two.