3 minute read

Racing and Sports preview the 2021 Chester Vase on the opening day of the Chester May Festival.

Chester's May Festival kicks off with the running of the Chester Vase, race that has produced a couple of Derby winners - Ruler Of The World and Wings Of Eagles - but has been more of a trial for Australia where the last five winners of the race (and a couple of runners up) now reside. 

So the Vase is certainly a race to watch for the future but the more pressing matter is finding the winner for the here and now. The Racing and Sports Pricing Model takes a slightly Australian look at things, and that means it gives more credit to those having run recently than the typical English punter might. 

This view may not be perfect, but as the famous aphorism goes "all models are wrong, but some are useful" and it has paid some dividends lately. 

It is that view that helps us to turn tonight's Chester Vase favourite, Wirko, from top pick into a bet despite being well fancied and trading short of 2/1. 

As it turns out, all six runners in the race have had a recent run, but none have run to the level that Wirko ran to winning at Epsom and require more weight being put on runs from last season or generally promising profiles. 

If the dial is switched to recent form it is Wirko who stands right out and he can be backed to make the most of being the here-and-now horse off that really strong return at Epsom. 

It's that same view that prevents us from backing the favourite for the Chester Oaks earlier on the card. Dubai Fountain has a ratings edge but hasn't been seen for 208 days while a couple of lesser performed horses have the bonus of a recent hit out. 

The main danger, both in terms of ratings and in terms of the early betting, is Zeyaadah who also faces the challenge of coming here off a break which leaves the race, viewed through the Racing and Sports Pricing Model, one to sit back and learn from. 

Recommended Bets: Back Wirko in the Chester Vase