3 minute read
Racing and Sports preview the opening day from the Royal Meeting at Ascot.
Put pomp and pageantry to one side. The Royal Meeting at Ascot is the best betting week of the year in Britain, arguably the world, and it kicks off tonight with the best horse in the world (depending on your definition of best) dominating the market in the Queen Anne Stakes.
That is fair enough. Palace Pier has shown himself plenty good enough to win a Queen Anne, much better than those out to knock him off, and he has proven versatile to pace and going. Lots to like away from the price. Options away from him are limited. The Racing and Sports Pricing Model makes the prices about the same, a slight preference for Lope Y Fernandez over stabemate Order Of Australia the only small angle - and it's a small one.
Click here for free form, ratings and speed maps for Royal Ascot tonight
The Coventry couldn't be more different. It lacks for a standout but has plenty of depth. Chances galore that look capable of peaking at the right sort of level to win a typical Coventry. And the Racing and Sports Pricing Model has more of an opinion this time.
The Acropolis has a big profile and looks sure to improve for a jockey and trainer that have linked up to win this twice, and place twice, in the past six years. His figure last time was good and it is very easy to envisage sharp improvement. So easy that it is very hard to see him not improving.
The other one that fits that mould, and takes the Model's eye, is Richard Hannon's Gisburn. If Aidan and Ryan's record in the race is worth mentioning then so is Hannon's. The stable won the race in 2009 and 2019 with Canford Cliffs and Strong Suit and have saddled Olympic Glory, Mehmas and Threat to run second in it since.
All terrific horses and Mehmas, Strong Suit and Canford Cliffs all went there having won impressively at Newbury 32 days prior. The very race that Gisburn blitzed to the tune of 6.5 lengths. Now that won't make Gisburn any faster, but we already clocked him running fast, and the stable's pattern means he went there with a strong prior. A strong prior leads to strong posterior. Gisburn feels like a good horse. He looks like a good horse. He probably is a good horse. And he is probably a good gamble at 6/1.
The King's Stand is a race all about the favourite Battaash. No credible rating system could claim that he is anything but dominant on his best figures and so betting really becomes a game of 'will he or won't he.
He has kicked off his five seasons to date with wins, the last four of them won with near enough to world-class performances, and despite worries around a setback in the lead up, prices around 2/1 probably undersell that record.
Winter Power was fast at York but she seems a trendy pick - popular for showcasing shrewdness by seeing past the obvious. The beauty of a computer picking plays is that computers care not for appearing clever.
The other Group One on the card is the St James's Palace Stakes for the three-year-old milers and it's about as open as races of it's kind get.
Poetic Flare and Lucky Vega have nice ratings from the Guineas at Newmarket where Battleground, Thunder Moon and Wembley were all absolutely terrible.
So terrible that we could just about rule a line. They aren't that bad and should all do better this time. All three started shorter than Poetic Flare and Lucky Vega at Newmarket.
Naamoos and Mostahdaf have run slick figures winning lesser races on their way here but are shy of what it typically takes to win this race. But perhaps this is simply not a typical running and it looks well entruly up for grabs.
Recommended Bets: Back The Acropolis and Gisburn in the Coventry Stakes. Back Battaash in the King's Stand.
