3 minute read

There are only twelve runners this year and one horse who has won this the last two years.

Enable, that is, is rated 128 and is the best horse in the race.  This is to be her swansong and her chance to make even more history as if she wins she will be the only horse who has won this race 3 times.  She's been given the best possible prep for this by John Gosden.  So what could go wrong? 

Firstly the going which is expected to be very soft; secondly some very smart 3yos who have both weight and younger legs in their favour namely Sotsass.  At one time we did an analysis of the Arc winners and found that most were 3yo bay colts trained in France coming out of gates 1-6 and having won one of the prep races for this.  The horse that ticks most of these boxes is Sotsass, winner of the French Derby and the Prix Niel.   The other 3yo is Japan, coming from Aidan O'Brien's yard and has a course and distance win here in the GP de Paris plus a recent win at York over a longer trip than this.  They also need to have a very fast finish and both tick that box.

They are the three runners at single figure odds in the UK.  On the next line you get Godolphin's Ghaiyyath who was a tearaway winner of the GP von Baden Baden, O'Brien's Magical and Prix Foy winner Waldgeist.

The Japanese have been seriously challenging in this race but so far without a win.  This year they have three contenders Fierement, Blast Onepiece and Kiseki.  They are all very good horses but just below the level of Deep Impact or Orfevre.  Of the three we would lean towards Kiseki who has been training in France and will be ridden by Christophe Soumillon. He would need to lift from his third in the Prix Foy where he was several lengths behind Waldgeist.  It would be ironic if Japan won!

So on paper it should be Enable's day.  As this will be her last start it would just put the icing on a very rich cake, and the competition isn't that outstanding in this edition of the famous race.