3 minute read
It's a very different Cup this year but it does have a very interesting field.
The decision is do we go the traditional route and stick with the stats or go the modern route and look for a newcomer.
On the trad route you would have The Chosen One coming from Gate 5, Master of Reality and Prince of Arran with saddlecloths 4 and 12, horses on 54.5 kgs – Dashing Willoughby, Finche, Prince of Arran and Surprise Baby, horses with names beginning with a "P" or an "S" etc.
In the past we have also looked for the horses following on strongly in the Caulfield Cup and this year that means Anthony van Dyck, The Chosen One, Prince of Arran and Finche. And we have looked at horses who have proven 3200m form which mostly means they have run in the Cup before. So you have last year's winner Vow And Declare, Prince of Arran who has a 2nd and a 3rd, Finche, Surprise Baby, with Surprise Baby also winning the Adelaide Cup which is over the 3200m.
Now for the modern route and here we come to Tiger Moth. Aidan O'Brien and the Coolmore Crew seriously want to win this race and they have come up with Tiger Moth. He's a 4yo Galileo entire who has shown very promising form just missing the Irish Derby and then winning the "Is It 2021 Yet?" at Leopardstown before his trip to Melbourne. With a win in that race in your CV how could you go wrong? If he continues his forward progress he will win this despite it only being his fifth start, despite no lead-up race in Aus and despite his draw. Actually the draw isn't all bad as Kerrin McEvoy is experienced enough to find a spot for him and then produced him down the long Flemington straight and they may be able to keep out of trouble.
His stablemate Anthony Van Dyck has raced in top company around the world and his class showed in his good run in the Caulfield Cup. Yes he has top weight and there hasn't been a winner carrying that much weight for ages but he's carried that weight before when winning the Prix Foy on Arc Trials day at Longchamp. He's by Galileo as well and has an Aussie mum – Believe and Succeed by Exceed and Excel. And he's named after one of our favourite artists.
Prince of Arran loves Australia. He's placed twice in the Melbourne Cup and recently was fourth in the Caulfield Cup. He's ridden by Jamie Kah and comes from gate 1 which was the same gate as Prince of Penzance sailed forth from with Michelle Paine on board, the only female Melbourne Cup winner so far. So two Princes, two female jockeys and both coming from gated 1. Go figure!
Surprise Baby had got saddle cloth No. 13 but that may not be unlucky. He's a genuine stayer who was 5th in this race last year and has won an Adelaide Cup over the same trip. His jockey won on Vow and Declare last year but has opted for this horse this year. He's got a good gate and the winning weight (on average). And his Dad Shocking won this race.
We are leaving out a lot of good horses but the line has to be drawn somewhere so good luck!
