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Historical Analysis of the Caulfield Cup

CAULFIELD CUP - G1 2400m

While it is the first leg of Australia’s handicap Cups double, the Caulfield Cup has remained a great race by itself. However it is also one of the best formguides to our most famous horserace.

Usually run at a frenetic pace, you need both high speed and depth of stamina to win over this particular 2400m course as was displayed by possibly the two greatest winners of this race Might and Power and Tulloch some 40 years apart. Look at the recent winners.

PROFILING THE RACE

o Many a handicapper has won the CC and they dominated before Dunaden’s class win.

o Leaders had a trot early this decade but that has swung around with recent ones coming from a way back.

o Highest recent weight was Admire Rakti, Dunaden and Northerly’s 58 while lightest was Arctic Scent with 49kg in last 16 years.

o Only 3 mares have won in the last 22 years (Southern Speed, Ethereal & Arctic Scent).

o 12 of the last 22 winners have been 4yos.

o Horses in the market have run well but at backable odds (aside from ’08).

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 6yo (5 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 54.5kg

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $14.50

o Breakdown of winners - 3 geldings, 1 mare & 6 entires

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Turnbull Stks (4), Metropolitan Hcp (1), Newburgh Stks (1), Herbert Power Hcp (1), King George (1), Tenno Sho Spring (1), Caulfield Stks (1).

RECENT WINNERS

2015 - MONGOLIAN KHAN 4h (Holy Roman Emperor x Centafit) ($5 fav)

Jockey: Opie Bosson, Trainer: Murray Baker

Barrier: 6, Weight: 55.0kg, Gross Time: 2:27.76

Margin: 0.5L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 18

2nd: Trip To Paris (55.0kg), 3rd: Our Ivanhowe (56.0kg)

Review: It had been a while since the Caulfield Cup favourite won but this bloke did it in style. Being a dual Derby winner he was always going to enjoy getting to the mile and a half but his run in the Caulfield Stakes showed he had the dash back as well.

In fact that won him the race. Bosson rode him aggressively from the good gate sitting not far from the leaders in a strongly run gallop. When they were ready to cave in he eased past the tiring Royal Descent and hit the front at the point of the bend.

It was a long way from home to make the play. But having established the margin he fought off Our Ivanhowe and then a surging Ascot Gold Cup winner Trip To Paris on his inside.

Much was made of the run of Fame Game and stewards questioned the ride. Sadly he developed colic and the attack ruled him out the Melbourne Cup.

Where did the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Melbourne Cup - DNS

Did the Melbourne Cup winner run at Caulfield - NO

2014 - ADMIRE RAKTI 6h (Heart’s Cry x Admire Teresa) ($11)

Jockey: Zac Purton, Trainer: Tomoyuki Umeda

Barrier: 7, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 2:32.12

Margin: 0.4L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 18

2nd: Rising Romance (53.0kg), 3rd: Lucia Valentina (53.0kg)

Review: The Japanese stayers had made a great mark on the Australian landscape eight years ago when quinellaing the Melbourne Cup. But since Equine Influenza, when quarantine protocols had been heavily increased, they had only come back with one runner.

However in a quality horse who had run fourth in the a Japan Cup, this one was a highly decent chance. He was forced to carry 58kg but in recent years, weight has not been the factor. Zac Purton was coming off an outstanding international year and this topped it off.

After James McDonald charged out of the gates on Rising Romance to cross over and lead then take cover, there was some carnage in behind, not of his doing though. They slowed up midstages and Purton had this horse wide but with cover where they do like to race.

As the kiwi mare cut the corner and looked home, Purton launched out wide and grabbed her on the line with the other mare Lucia Valentina flashing home for third. Sadly we know what happened Melbourne Cup day.

Where did the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Melbourne Cup - Last

Did the Melbourne Cup winner run at Caulfield - NO

2013 - FAWKNER 6g (Reset x Dane Belltar) ($11)

Jockey: Nicholas Hall, Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Barrier: 10, Weight: 55.0kg, Gross Time: 2:29.10

Margin: 1.3L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 18

2nd: Dandino (56.5kg), 3rd: Dear Demi (53.0kg)

Review: Sometimes things happen for a reason. On a sad week when racing lost Andrew Ramsden, the first horse he owned was named similarly to Cup winner. Lloyd Williams himself owned Reset and it sired the winner while Nick Hall was able to win something his father could never.

In the race, Dear Demi was snagged over heels and the favourite Hawkspur was dropped out too. They rolled along but the race changed complexion when Jet Away over raced and Oliver took off.

He flushed a few out but it was Fawkner and Dandino’s jockeys who stayed composed. Hall was able to take gaps inside Glen Boss and he sprinted too quickly. Dandino came wide and Dear Demi up the fence but the grey was too quick.

Hall was lucky too as it was not long ago when he stopped riding on Bound For Earth in Sydney and Ray Murrihy said if she had lost to Guelph that day he’d have had a long penalty. Luck played its part here.

Where did the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Melbourne Cup - 6th

Did the Melbourne Cup winner run at Caulfield - NO