3 minute read
Track improving Good 4 and rail out 9m.
Race 1 PROVINCIAL MAIDEN PLATE (900m):
We open with the maidens over the short course, and in a very tricky dash with a few key first starters on show, the market will have a big say. It's a two-year-old returning, though, off a one-off metro debut on the final day of 2022 who can strike. Flying Artie colt 7. Hard Pick has trialled strongly at the provincials, and although drawn to settle well back from a wide draw, should get enough speed and pressure on up front to round them up late.
Dangers: Big watch on lightly raced Outreach three-year-old 2. Iconic Story resuming off a seven month spell, quiet provincial trial, and first time on firm ground. Dissident filly 5. Pridefilly debuts for a leading home track and fresh stable, and won a lead-up trial, although the times were only average; while two-year-old Xtravagant stablemate filly 9. Nightcapped won the second of two trials, and starts her career from the inside gate.
How to play it: Hard Pick to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 2 MAIDEN HCP (1300m):
This shapes ideally for promising Capitalist three-year-old and likely hot favourite 1. Asva off a slashing first-up provincial run when motoring home from the back to miss by a half head carting 61kg. From a leading city yard, naturally the extra 100m is a bonus, and only missed a place once in six career starts.
Dangers: Doubt there are any if the on top selection gets an even crack at them, but recently gelded Pride Of Dubai debutant 2. Futtaim can run the quinella behind two progressive metro trials. Improving 3. Believe The Hype second-up; and 4. Align The Planets resuming off two quiet trials; fight for the minor money.
How to play it: Asva to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 3 MAIDEN PLATE (1500m):
The maidens again over a middle distance, and keen to back 4. Galactic Legend who is ready to break through well into the prep. Fought on strong in heavy going two starts back before ridden quieter 17 days ago when hitting the line late in a Midway maiden after being heavily backed from $3.30 into $2.40. Prefers it dry and looms as the clear one to beat in a weakened race.
Dangers: Tough metro filly 9. Tot Of Rum incredibly has run five consecutive third placings, often without much luck, and blinkers go on. At bigger odds, 8. Tolima third-up can add value into the exotics.
How to play it: Galactic Legend to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 4 FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1250m):
An all-girls battle here, and it stacks up well for lightly raced and progressive metro three-year-old 5. Mount Warning third-up. Worked home okay at Warwick Farm 13 days ago, but getting on to a much bigger track and firmer ground is the recipe to make it two from three this prep, especially with the rail pushed out this far.
Dangers: Home tracker 1. Ottilie fought hard first-up behind a smart winner in deeper BM 72 grade at Randwick on Saturday, but doubtful she would back up in three days. Must respect ultra consistent 8. Innervoice who finished best to claim a country CL3 last start; while including lightly raced 2. Sirens Star resuming; 3. Deep Opinions third-up; and 9. Hard To Dismiss placed in two of her last three; in exotic bets.
How to play it: Mount Warning to win
Odds and Evens: Odds
Race 5 MIDWAY 3YO MAIDEN PLATE (1400m):
Good betting maiden and plenty of chances here. Like progressive metro filly 7. Gold Pattern second-up over 300m further. Did her best work late from last, resuming in a very handy provincial maiden, and parking closer here on a bigger track carrying 2kg less, she can launch over the top.
Dangers: Another second-up player is 4. Merchant Legend who was okay resuming at the provincials in his first start since debuting seven months back. Watch the market with 10. Occhiata also with weight relief second-up behind a nice closing return. Both 3. Jack Of Aces down in weight off a fair debut; and improving 8. Killer Kerr third-up; are capable of running into the money.
How to play it: Gold Pattern to win
Odds and Evens: Split
Race 6 BENCHMARK 68 HCP (1400m):
Wide open stoush again, but talented home track seven-year-old 8. Super can launch home getting back up to his best distance. Has hit the line without much luck in three consecutive BM 64s at this track since a dominant off speed win seven weeks ago. Fit as a bull, loves firm ground, and a very significant jockey change.
Dangers: Tough four-year-old 2. Rocstar Boy has been banging on the door all prep, finishing hard into a place from a mile back in his last two, and again only needs a clear crack at them from the turn to be right in the finish. Watch for any market support with 6. Nitride who is inconsistent, but capable of producing a telling final 400m charge; while 1. Scorched Land back a little in class third-up; and honest 11. Catapult who was given no chance a mile back in the field just seven days ago; are both over the odds.
How to play it: Super to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 7 COLTS, GELDINGS & ENTIRES BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1250m):
The male sprinters lock horns here, and ultra keen on smart country three-year-old 6. Unravel resuming for a second prep behind two progressive trials. Stalked the speed before winning comfortably on debut last spring, and bolted in a BM 58 at his third start before spelling. Bit tougher here, but he has oodles of upside, draws okay, and both trainer and jockey are going great guns at the moment.
Dangers: Dropping back from deeper Highway company fourth-up, 2. Barradas is the clear threat, with winkers replacing blinkers for the first time, and carries only 2.5kg over the limit weight after the claim. Be surprised if anything else wins, but keep safe talented 1. Piraeus resuming behind two progressive open class trials; while 3. Da Nang Star is a market watch at big odds, first-up off two trials.
How to play it: Unravel to win
Odds and Evens: Evens
Race 8 BENCHMARK 64 HCP (1600m):
Same grade of galloper over the mile for all-comers to close, and it's one of the tougher races on the program. Like talented provincial filly 8. Mistress who shapes as the most progressive runner coming off a smart CL1 win over the Scone carnival when finishing hard from midfield. Couldn't be fitter staying at the distance, and just needs to find some cover from the wider draw, to finish over them.
Dangers: Big watch on ex-UK mare 3. Commandment who can peak third-up from a softer draw over more ground. Keep safe too at good odds, 4. Show Me Your Love who progresses off a smart country BM 66 win second-up, and draws to get a soft run. Honest metro mare 9. Noble Beauty is another one over the mark fourth-up with a crucial 3kg claim, and blinkers going on. Local 1. Rebel County heads the rest second-up.
How to play it: Mistress to win
Odds and Evens: Split
