3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick on Saturday.
The rail is out 8m and the form has been done for a Soft track.
Race 1 - 12:25PM PETALUMA HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
All was clearly not right with 4. Silent Impact when we last saw him at the races. The gelding was in the market for the Listed Dulcify Stakes, and despite racing in restricted room, never let down over the 1500m. His Spring Champion plans were aborted thereafter with Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott sending him to the paddock. He had promised to be a handy three-year-old on what he had done prior to that, winning in good time at Goulburn on debut over 1000m before winning just as comfortably at Rosehill out to 1200m at start number two. On that occasion he stalked a genuine speed before quickening brilliantly. Can see Saturday's race playing out similarly with Silent Impact, and his regular rider Tim Clark, popping into the slip stream of 1. Capital Reign. It sets up perfectly and he has trialled sweetly ahead of his return.
Dangers: 5. Flying Crazy is a gelding with a monster finish. The negative being his get-back style. The one time he was ridden positively, when he led at Hawkesbury, he was well beaten by Conrad. He split Converge and Capitalist in the G2 Run To The Rose before spelling, clocking a last 200m bettered only by Anamoe and Gleneagles! 2. Quick Tempo has won five from five and won from behind and in front. This is by far his toughest test to date, however. Worried about the last 100m with Capital Reign but he'll give a sight while it's the opposite concern for the recently gelded 3. Subterranean and 6. Moridan . They could find one or two too sharp over 1100m, especially the 1100m at Rosehill.
How to play it: Silent Impact WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) and 4,5 QUINELLA Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 2 - 1:00PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1000 METRES)
Peter and Paul Snowden have hit the ground running with their two-year-olds this season. There are few better at preparing youngsters. From 22 runners they've had seven winners and seven placegetters. Enter debutant 6. Sir Artie. On a sidenote, last year Stay Inside debuted in this very race as did Estijaab a couple of years prior. Sir Artie had his first trial back in September but struggled to stay in touch before doing his best work through the line. He showed more gate speed in his one trial back this time sitting on top of the speed in soft conditions before cruising to an effortless two lengths trial win, in good time compared to the other 800m heats at Gosford that morning. The other huge advantage this colt has, other than his co-trainers, is how well he maps from the low draw.
Dangers: Would be all over 14. Wild Calm had she not drawn barrier 13. It makes it a daunting task, assuming she is ridden the same way she was on debut in the Gimcrack from a similar gate. Love the way she attacked the line late there, clocking comparable closing splits to the winner, and current benchmark two-year-old in the country, Coolangatta. 8. Deep Expectation disappointed in that same race but she pulled up slow to recover and wanted to hang. Have mapped her to find the rail this time, which could see a sharp improvement. There was a lot to like about how she has trialled since. 1. Zambezi River ran well in the Breeders, but it was 7.5L slower than the Gimcrack.
How to play it: Sir Artie WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 3 - 1:35PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
1. Shelby Sixtysix is 1400m back to 1100m but he was a mile back to 1000m prior to that and ran London Gal to a nose! Casino Lord ran third there and there was a sizeable gap back to third. A repeat of that sees him hard to beat in this. The five-year-old, trained by Danny Williams, has raced in seven Highway Handicaps already, placing in three of those, but he probably won't be presented with a better chance to win one than on Saturday. There is a long tail this week's Highway, he draws perfectly and looks well in after the 2kg claim of Reece Jones which sees him carry 56.5kg, only 2.5kg above the minimum. Shouldn't have too much trouble parking in the first dozen, in behind what should be a genuine tempo with several speed horses drawn wide.
Dangers: 3. Extravagant Lad was well beaten in a Highway back in November when a $5 chance but the track was rated a Heavy 10 and he never looked comfortable in the going. He bounced back thereafter, running a close up second at Canberra before winning a Class 2 over 1000m. He's still on the up. Scott Collings has had 10 winners from his last 30 starters. Respect the first up placement of 16. Fangela by Keith Dryden. She was tipped straight out after failing in a Highway the last time we saw her at the races. We've learnt to never dismiss the chances of Terry Robinson's Highway runners and he'll be represented by honest mare 4. Danzadel, although the wide draw looks problematic.
How to play it: Shelby Sixtysix WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 4 - 2:10PM CITY TATTERSALLS GROUP HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
Former Kiwi-trained filly 7. And We Danced had her first Australian run for Chris Waller at Rosehill two weeks ago and after being very confidently backed in betting, she was run down late by 1. Arctic Thunder in a race that turned into a sprint home. She parked outside of the leader so she had her chance but she was left in front a long way from home. Arctic Thunder again maps to get her back but And We Danced should get some cover herself in this, with 5. Zou De Moon and . 8. She's All In both going forward to set up a more genuinely run race. And We Danced can only improve on what she did a fortnight ago which sees her profile as the horse to beat, as the early marker suggests.
Dangers: Arctic Thunder loses Jason Collett but the claim of Tyler Schiller sees her tackle another BM78 at the same weight as last start, 59.5kg. Has won seven of her 18 starts and has again been superbly placed by Gary Portelli here. 4. Meg produced a hidden run first up over 1100m behind the flying Bacchanalia before winning out to 1400m at Canberra. The only way she looks likely to get cover here though, is by settling last. 6. Sur La Mer is racing like she'll relish the mile, and a genuinely run one at that. 2. Fleetwood Maca should find the box seat from barrier 2. 3. Majella and 10. Awesome Choice are not out of this either. Plenty of chances.
How to play it: And We Danced WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 5 - 2:45PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
What you see is largely what you get when it comes to honest galloper 2. Jungle Book. He'll never blow a field away but he'll run to his level and Clare Cunningham has found a race for the six-year-old where he won't have to do much more than that to win. He has been building nicely into his campaign, running into second behind Travest over the mile at Warwick Farm just nine days ago. That sets him up beautifully out to 1800m fourth up on a track with the sting out of it. Have mapped Jason Collett to have Jungle Book parked three pairs back, stalking what should be a genuinely run race with several leaders engaged in this week's middle distance Midway. Has won a race in each preparation he's had for Cunningham to date and Saturday's set up could see that trend continue.
Dangers: 7. White Boots wasn't quite himself last preparation but he has shown enough in his two runs back this time to suggest that Kim Waugh is close to getting him back on track. Was taking ground off Jungle Book late last start and maps to settle much closer in this. 3. Mr Bond was outsprinted over 1550m last start behind For Valour and Toomuchtobear. Suspect he is going better than his finishing positions suggest this time back. He can improve sharply out in trip. 6. Viren has put a string of solid runs together recently and will push forward from the draw to settle on the speed, albeit with no shortage of company. Concede knockout hopes to 4. Canyonero, 11. Dream Maiden and certainly 13. Back Da Man if he gets a run.
How to play it: Jungle Book WIN ($4.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 6 - 3:20PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
4. Toomuchtobear was exceptional when winning first up at Randwick, sweeping home from last to win over 1400m. He clocked the fastest last 200m split across the entire meeting, and the third quickest last 600m only bettered by sprinters Van Giz and The Bopper. He subsequently raced a touch flat out to 1550m on the Kensington track. The four-year-old settled one out one back in the run, camping behind the winner For Valour, so he was left without any excuses but perhaps such a big fresh win took its toll second up. He still ran second so we can't be too critical, but it wasn't the same Toomuchtobear we saw a fortnight earlier. Chris Waller steps him straight out to 2000m now third up and given that he maps to box seat again, he profiles as the horse to beat in a very winnable race.
Dangers: 12. Criminal Code didn't fire a shot first up over the mile but he's better than that. Has been back to the trials since. Very wary of sharp improvement from him. It's been a long time since we've seen 1. Lord Belvedere in a benchmark level race. The eight-year-year was recently transferred from Maher and Eustace to Neasham and he did just enough at his first run for his new yard, over 1550m. The blinkers go on for the first time. 9. Greek Hero continues to race well and drops to 52kg in this grade. 3. Desert Icon looks set to peak third up out to 2000m after two sound efforts in Melbourne. 8. My Demetra maps to sit outside of 5. So Wicked and get her chance. There was little between her and Maid Of Ore last start at Canterbury.
How to play it: Toomuchtobear WIN ($2.15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 7 - 4:00PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP (1100 METRES)
Angela Davies is a trainer renowned for the placement of her horses and she's found the perfect race for 7. Salina Dreaming to kick off in. The gamble we're taking with this mare is having to forgive her latest two runs. They were well below par for the lightly-raced five-year-old, albeit in deeper races than she finds herself in here, before she spent 36 weeks on the sidelines. It was hard to get any guide on her from two very quiet trials but her first up record reads 4:3-0-1 and first up last preparation she trounced her Warwick Farm rivals winning by three lengths running away. The campaign prior to that she was presented first up at Randwick over 1100m and ran down The Face. If she runs up to her best, she'll win.
Dangers: 1. Lancaster Bomber has finished in the top four in 22 of his past 25 starts, winning four of those. He is an incredibly consistent sprinter that always runs to his level. He was only beaten 1.7L by Malkovich first up last preparation over 1000m. He has trialled up well leading into this. Jess Taylor certainly has the knack with 8. Nikohli Beagle. The pair were reunited first up in Midway company and he ran down Finally Realise. This is a touch deeper but the pair have combined five times for four wins now.
How to play it: Salina Dreaming WIN ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 8 - 4:40PM THE AGENCY CARRINGTON STAKES (1400 METRES)
It's not going to be an easy watch with 13. Through The Cracks. It never is. He'll be last turning for home and be one of the first horses to come under pressure but a likely hot tempo should see him get his chance to mow his rivals down in his customary fashion. The seven-year-old resumed in the Christmas Classic (1200m) at Canterbury having spent a year on the sidelines and he did his best work late. Given the set up, Angela Davies couldn't have expected much more. At the backend of last preparation he smashed the line in the G2 Villiers when rated a $6 chance. There is less depth in Saturday's race. The biggest hurdle is obviously where he'll be in the run so wouldn't want to take any shorter than $5 but he goes in on top, particularly with his second up record (4:3-0-0-0) in mind.
Dangers: 1. Special Reward has found his form again, backing up his impressive win over subsequent winner Snapdancer at Randwick with a solid second behind 4. Prime Candidate also in the Christmas Classic. Will just need the breaks to fall his way in the straight but he'll do no work in the run. 3. Laure Me In could be the knockout. Matt Dunn is bullish about how well the gelding has returned and he's a capable fresh horse over 1400m, despite getting out to 2300m when last in work. 9. True Detective outpointed Tycoonist first up and maps beautifully in this. He's a must for trifectas and first fours. The knock on 2. Purple Sector is coming back to 1400m from the mile.
How to play it: Through The Cracks WIN ($3.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 9 - 5:20PM RANVET HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
5. Yiyi could find himself in a perfect trailing position if Kerrin McEvoy is positive in the early stages. The two likely leaders are drawn to his immediate outside. The progressive four-year-old becomes very hard to beat if he lands one out one back. Nobody missed his first up run at Rosehill. He was never going to beat 8. Kingsheir given how slowly the race was run but he clocked the fastest last 200m split across the entire meeting when running on into second. He gave the winner 6.5kg too. He strips fitter second up, gets out to the mile and finds another wet track, which is a bonus even though he is adept in all conditions. Yiyi won four races last preparation and it won't be long before he's winning again this time back.
Dangers: Haven't mentioned 7. Lackeen yet, despite coming through the same race at Yiyi last start. Lackeen's closing splits were near identical to Yiyi's. He was four weeks between runs and 1600m back to the mile. The little freshen certainly worked. Will he be as dynamic two weeks later back out in trip? Won't have any excuses map-wise. 10. Canasta will carve across from the draw and get his rivals chasing. He produced a 'winning run' last start only to be knocked off by his stablemate O'Mudgee who jumped out of the ground late. Another win is close. 9. Wairere Falls wasn't far away from Yiyi and Lackeen last start while 6. Opacity has improved sharply second up in the past and the blinkers go back on.
How to play it: Yiyi WIN ($3.20 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
Race 10 - 6:00PM BOWERMANS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
4. Papal Warrior found himself the default leader in a very slowly run race last start. He was outsprinted at the finish, holding down third. He jumped a $5.50 chance there and he's opened doubled that for Saturday's race, despite it having less depth on paper. Kerrin McEvoy will likely have no choice but to roll across from the wide draw but 6. Cafe Royal should assume control allowing him to take a trail. The booking of McEvoy is a significant one too as he rode him both times he won last preparation. Prior to that, Papal Warrior had been stranded on one career win for an eternity. A wet track is ideal for the five-year-old given his best recent form is on tracks with give. Gets his right set up to run up to his best.
Dangers: Can 2. O'Mudgee prove what he did last start was no fluke? It wasn't completely unexpected, given he SP'd $7.50, but few would have predicted he'd spot his stablemate Canasta such a huge start and mow him down with a last 200m four lengths quicker than the next best in the race. Cafe Royal maps to get control of this race from in front and she is typically a very genuine mare. Her record over 1400m reads 4:1-2-1 too. 10. Waihaha Falls was disappointing last start. He has been freshened since and the wet track won't hurt his chances of bouncing back. 9. Yukon fits into this race well while 11. More Sundays comes off a dominant last start win at Newcastle.
How to play it: Papal Warrior WIN ($11 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
