3 minute read
Tips and race by race preview by Brad Gray for Randwick.
Race 1 - 12:30PM WORLD GYM CASTLEREAGH KIRKHAM PLATE (1000 METRES)
5. Secret Revolution did everything right in his one trial, winning it eased down despite Tommy Berry asking for very little effort from the Russian Revolution colt. Berry sticks with him on debut. After mustering quickly to park outside of the lead, he raced strongly throughout before responding to a slight click up half way down the straight. The time stacked up well against the four other two-year-old heats over 850m. Peter and Paul Snowden are one the of the benchmark stables in the country when it comes to two-year-olds. He is the first foal of Secret Trail, a Listed winner that was also trained by the Snowden yard. We've only got one hit out to judge this youngster off so monitor market confidence.
Dangers: 1. Contemporary jumped an odds on favourite on debut at Flemington over 900m. He had his chance though, running second to Cavalla. It was the first two-year-old race of the season, and won last year by General Beau with Finance Tycoon in second. The knock on Contemporary, and that particular race, is that they were entitled to do more over the last 200m. Has subsequently trialled well at Warwick Farm. 12. Snitcat is the only other runner here with race experience and she didn't have much luck on debut in the Gimcrack, a race that rated lengths better than the Breeders Plate. She never really saw daylight and was specked in betting shortening from $31 into $14 late.
How to play it: Secret Revolution WIN ($4.80 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 2 - 1:05PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
14. Freedom Square hasn't had much go his way in his five start career yet he has still carved out a 5:2-1-1 record. The four-year-old was jagged back from the wide draw with 60kg over 1280m first up before hitting the line to run fifth. Another wide draw second up saw him cover ground at Scone over 1300m, fighting on to run a brave third beaten half a length. There were no excuses at Tamworth last start winning over the mile on heavy ground at $1.35. Going back to his first racing campaign, the son of Panzer Division made a big impression on debut bolting in at Scone. Drops to 54kg, will put himself on top of the speed and possesses a turn of foot. He sets up well out to 1800m in Highway Handicap company.
Dangers: 7. Foodie King was the hidden run in the obvious form reference for this race – the Class 3 Highway over 1600m at Randwick two weeks ago. He was chopped out for a run half way down the straight after being forced back to last from a wide draw before picking himself up to clock the fastest last 200m split in the race. The trouble with making a case for Foodie King is the reluctance to overlook the dominant winner 8. Lord Desanimaux while 3. Whatsin, 9. So Say You and 11. The Fossil have to be in the conversation too. Where else is there to turn? 2. Kitzbuhel is a very dour import that Tim Clark will get rolling in front. 4. Battle Guardian could run a race, despite drawing awkwardly.
How to play it: Freedom Square WIN ($6 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 3 - 1:40PM DAILY PRESS BRIAN CROWLEY STAKES (1200 METRES)
If 5. Able Willie gets beat, it'll be his own doing. The gelding has so much talent but still does so much wrong. That was even evident in his trials before he made his debut. He'd miss the start, travel keenly, but showed a wicked turn of foot at the business end of his heats. After missing the kick at the midweeks three weeks ago, he was beautifully handled by Nash Rawiller, slicing through the field, getting into a three wide running line before letting Able Willie do the rest. It was a slowly run race yet he put his rivals to the sword. The jump from a midweek maiden into a Listed level race isn't the concern. He'll make the grade. It's his bad habits. Does Kerrin McEvoy, who has his first ride on the horse, let him slide forward from the wide draw? Doubt Able Willie would settle if he was dragged back to last.
Dangers: 7. Zarastro started $5 on debut back in December, running second to Paulele. Has spent all that time on the sidelines since but have liked the way this colt has trialled and Chris Waller throwing him into a black type race first up as a maiden tells you the stable's opinion of him. 8. Anagain also brings Paulele form to the table, proving her debut win was no fluke. Her two trials this time back have been hidden in that she has raced against open class horses, with the first of those subsequently producing the Silver Eagle (Aim) and Kosciuszko (Art Cadeau) winners! 1. O'President didn't look comfortable at all in the Roman Consul. His two-year-old form says he is lengths better than that but he might need a wet track to show it.
How to play it: Able Willie WIN ($2 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: ODDS
RRace 4 - 2:15PM MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES) ace
4. Media Starguest has never won over a trip shorter than 1400m but he matched motors with the speedy Expat over 1250m first up last preparation, where there was five lengths back to third. That was the start of a fruitful campaign winning second up despite covering ground throughout, beating 11. Favra, before winning again at his sixth run of the preparation. That was at Canterbury over 1550m where he beat Gemmahra and Mubariz. It was also at BM72 level but it was clearly against stiffer opposition than what he meets in in this. The start after that he flashed home from the back over 1400m in the Inglis Guineas. The four-year-old, trained by Ron Quinton, is a handy horse and the only conceivable reason we are getting a price well into double figures is the perceived distance query.
Dangers: 3. Air To Air looks well placed in BM72 company given how well she ran in Group company against her own sex over the autumn. Hasn't got any gate speed so don't expect her to use the draw to be closer. That get back style is why she has won just one from 16. 2. Undeniable has won three of his past four. She is a gutsy mare and Jerle has franked the form through her last start Rosehill win. 12. Pandora Blue was never losing from in front at Port Macquarie last start. Has to stretch her brilliance to 1200m now and do it in much better company. There is plenty of pressure in this race too. 1. Oxford Tycoon is capable of bouncing back from a poor showing last start.
How to play it: Media Starguest EACH WAY ($8.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 5 - 2:50PM ROBRICK LODGE FILANTE HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
1. Emerald Kingdom races outside of Queensland for the first time and Robert Heathcote has had this race picked out all along for the seven-year-old. He resumed at Eagle Farm two weeks ago, run down by even money favourite Apache Chase. Emerald Kingdom was well supported in betting himself, however, and didn't do himself any favours by racing keenly in front. History suggests that he improves significantly first up (7:1-1-1) into his second up run (6:4-1-0) so such a strong return sees him particularly well set up in this. Love the pairing with Tim Clark. There are a couple of rivals that are capable of punching up from inside of Emerald Kingdom, which will likely decide his fate in the race, but if he can clear the likes of 2. Quackerjack and, to a lesser extent, 7. Starspangled Rodeo he becomes very hard to run down.
Dangers: Not many horses around can match the finishing speed of 4. Criaderas but when you settle so far back in your races, you're still going to lose more than you win once you race through the grades. He was again a sectional standout when a narrow second to Think It Over first up last preparation. Resumes with the blinkers off. 8. Exoboom found 1100m too sharp first up before being pin balled in the Silver Eagle last start. Quackerjack is a tough, capable horse when right and resuming over 1400m after three trial suggests that Mark Newnham has done plenty of work with him. 6. Yamazaki is always a knockout chance while Starspangled Rodeo is much better than what he showed last start.
How to play it: Emerald Kingdom WIN ($3.30 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
Race 6 - 3:25PM GEYER HANDICAP (1600 METRES)
8. Ruby Tuesday should have been fighting out the finish with 6. Shibli last start at Rosehill. The five-year-old was all bottled up with nowhere to go in the straight. When she finally say daylight she charged at the line but the race was already over. It was a similar excuse in Midway company the start prior. She may have been looking for further than 1300m second up but is easy to draw the conclusion that she stretches out much better without other horses around her. It's worth noting that her last two wins have been from in front. The mile holds no fears for this Gary Portelli-trained mare having beaten Mightybeel over 1500m back in April before putting together a string of good runs in deeper races than this. In an open race, she's worth an each way ticket.
Dangers: 12. Sammy didn't fire a shot in the Silver Eagle last start. His win in a Newcastle Class 1 three back was exceptional. It was lesser grade but if he can find that form again, he'd win this. It's just hard to trust him! Keen to see him at a mile again. Shibli is chasing three straight and maps to get every chance to achieve it. 5. Reformist peeled off his back, looming like the winner, but couldn't sustain it. Will a 2kg weight swing be enough to turn the tables? Unlikely. 9. Ma And Pa is the up and comer with just five starts to his name, winning all three of his races this campaign. Has the speed to offset the wide draw and Chris Waller finds a suitable Saturday race for the son of Redoute's Choice to take the next step. The little knock might be that he is looking for a touch further than a mile now with Dear Demi his dam.
How to play it: Ruby Tuesday EACH WAY ($15 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 7 - 4:10PM CLUBSNSW CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB CUP (2400 METRES)
6. Achiever only has a couple of gears and the way he is racing as a four-year-old this preparation suggests he will relish 2400m. It's a trip he has only tackled once and he ran fourth in the G1 Queensland Derby, finishing just half a length off Explosive Jack. If he had the chance to slide into the race sooner he'd have finished closer to the winner Kukeracha too. Achiever has been building into his preparation with a third to Yiyi over 1900m two back before giving a sight from in front in the Port Macquarie Cup last start. Gets some weight relief down to 54kg compared to what he has carried more recently and love the look of this map for him. It'll should be genuinely run which suits his grinding style but he won't be the sitting duck this time, tagging 4. Hush Writer and 5. Skymax into the straight.
Dangers: It's been a mixed bag for 2. Cepheus in his first Australian preparation. He made a big impression first up over 1400m before two poor runs, presumably due to the soft tracks. He's a deadest dry tracker so monitor that. He needs a firm deck. He proved that last start when third to Think It Over in the G2 Hill Stakes. Has trialled sweetly since, the 2400m is ideal now but it's just how much of a start he'll give away as he's likely to settle last from the draw. Sets up to run the best race of his campaign, however. 3. Zeyrek is a player but can't get him anywhere near as short as the early market. Progressive stayer but he didn't go around a horse in the Metrop and carried just 50kg. He was entitled to run well. 1. Carif has 59kg but his fourth up runs in the past have been among his best.
How to play it: Achiever EACH WAY ($10 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 8 - 4:45PM BONDI STAKES (1600 METRES)
Set weights. Mile. It's hard to ignore the obvious in 1. Hilal. It's been a pretty simple formula in finding the two winners of the Bondi Stakes run to date, Kubrick and Peltzer. They were both the highest rated runners in the field and jumped favourite. All roads lead back to Hilal. He was disappointing in his first three runs back this time, having showed so much as a two-year-old, which included seconds in the Sires and Champagne behind Anamoe and Captivant, but bounced back in the Stan Fox a fortnight ago. It was a big turnaround in form from the plain 11th he'd run prior in the Golden Rose, albeit in Group One company, but if he holds that form now he should win this too. He simply possessed a turn of foot 2. Coastwatch couldn't match.
Dangers: Coastwatch had every possible chance to beat Hilal last start but couldn't quicken. Certainly respect the fact that he jumped $2.10 compared to Hilal's $8 but how does Coastwatch turn the tables off that? Particularly given where they have both draw. Perhaps Coastwatch goes forward from the draw. 3. Royalzel beat Hilal home in the Golden Rose and was on the heels of Giannis and Tiger Of Malay prior to that. 6. Arnaqueur fits in through that same form line, flashing home into fourth in the Dulcify before being posted in the Gloaming. That saw Jean Dubois abandon Spring Champion Stakes plans, freshening him up for the mile. 7. Dufrense looks the leader and keeps improving.
How to play it: Hilal WIN ($2.70 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
"Set weights. Mile. Hilal picks himself."
— Racing NSW (@racing_nsw) October 21, 2021
BEST BET: @BradJGray says all this three-year-old has to do is hold his form to win the $1m Bondi Stakes at Randwick on Saturday @tabcomau pic.twitter.com/0NNczU8iNv
Race 9 - 5:35PM THE INVITATION (1400 METRES)
8. Rocha Clock is easy to overlook. The five-year-old mare did more than enough first up over 1200m in the Nivison. Her eighth might have looked average to the eye but the moderate early tempo, compounded by her missing the start, before turning into a sprint home only found her out further over a journey she hadn't raced over since her race track debut in 2019. It was clearly the run she needed to have her cherry ripe for this race. Second up her form reads 4:2-0-1 and her record over 1400m is 6:3-1-0. It's been a carefully orchestrated campaign by John O'Shea to have her peaking and her best shakes the life out of this race. There has been very little between her and 2. Nudge at her past two meetings and the gate gives Rocha Clock the opportunity to settle several lengths closer than Nudge in this.
Dangers: 6. Entriviere was set mission impossible at Rosehill last start after 7. Vangelic stacked her rivals up in front. Punters Intelligence reveals that the Kiwi clocked a 32.50s last 600m. 10. Icebath had to check off her heels before hitting the line hardest late, with a sizzling 10.76s last 200m. Icebath was subsequently luckless in the Epsom too. Under the right set of circumstances it wouldn't be a stretch to mark her favourite but the wide draw and likelihood of a dry track don't help. 11. Tricky Gal smashed the clock late herself first up in the Nivison. Typically she has always flown fresh. 4. Forbidden Love's enormous Surround win was over this track and trip while 1. Madam Rouge is capable on her day. 12. Startantes gets in light being a three-year-old.
How to play it: Rocha Clock EACH WAY ($18 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: EVENS
Race 10 - 6:10PM SOUTHERN CROSS GROUP HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Godolphin's sprinter 9. Gravina has been an unlucky loser in both of his runs this time back. In the first of those the four-year-old found himself in the middle of the track at Randwick when the inside was clearly superior before simply getting too far back second up out to 1200m. He savaged the line behind Big Parade with a 32.96s last 600m, two lengths superior to the next best and an 11.16s last 200m which was just 0.1s outside of the quickest across the entire meeting. Big Parade franked the form by subsequently impressing in the Sydney Stakes with Prime Candidate, through the same two races, gave the form a further upgrade. Barrier 1 gives Kerrin McEvoy the chance to punch up trail what should be a genuine speed. Gets the right set up to atone.
Dangers: 2. Marway could jump out of the ground third up. Mark Newnham has maintained all along that he's needed a couple of runs to clean up this time back and out to 1200m with two runs under his belt, he is dangerous. Josh Parr will get his rivals off the bit and chasing a long way from home. 6. Belluci Babe possesses a sharp turn of foot and it saw her measure up in Group company last start. Draws well. Big player. 10. Electric Girl also comes through the Nivison and meets Belluci Babe 5kg better off. There was less than a length between the pair at the finish. 11. Quantico will give them all a start but he has a finish to be wary of.
How to play it: Gravina WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Odds & Evens: SPLIT
