3 minute read
We welcome the official start of the Autumn Carnival at Randwick on Saturday, headlined by the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes.
Star mares Colette and Verry Elleegant head the market, with six of the nine engaged coming through the Apollo Stakes won impressively by the former.
The two also met in the George Main Stakes in the Spring with Verry Elleegant having Colette's measure by just on two lengths.
So which form do you read into more?
When they first met Colette was sent out a 25-1 chance, whereas in the Apollo Stakes Colette was installed an 11-1 chance, again VE was the 6/4 favourite.
On Saturday there isn't a great deal between them in the market, this is also illustrated in their Timeform ratings, Colette is now rated 119, Verry Elleegant is 123, though her highest rating in the Spring was 120.
We've seen a fair upgrade of the Spring Colette, then rated 113, and after watching a replay of the Apollo it's easy to understand why. Most of all, the data matched the visuals.
She won running away from them and that wasn't because it was a stamina test, she won it with speed and highlighted her turn of foot.
If able to produce similar on Saturday, she wins again.
Sticking with the James Cummings stable in the final event with Zakat.
Not a prolific winner (3/17), but he has been a model of consistency and looks well placed off his narrow defeat first up at Flemington.
Two of his three career wins have come second up and all three of his career wins have come over this distance.
Leading rider James McDonald legs back aboard and while yet to win on the four-year-old, he has never missed the money in three attempts.
Drawn favourably on the inside, he is expected to land in the coffin (behind the leader), before hopefully getting into the clear on straightening.
When assessing Timeform weight adjusted ratings he looks to hold a fair edge and we have him marked the even money favourite.
Proven to handle all conditions, with even luck, he should go very close.
Simon Dinopoulos' Three Tips:
Race 2 #2 Captivant @ $3.50
Race 6 #7 Colette @ $3.30
Race 9 #5 Zakat @ $2.60
