High quality fillies have emerged from the VRC Oaks who you'd think would become classy, open grade WFA horses.
History shows it is a very difficult task for any 3yo filly to make that transformation and compete against the big boys once that are 4yo and it is on that basis that we tend to rate how good the fillies have been. Examine the ladies – many of whom have a Miss in their name.
• 2006 – MISS FINLAND 3f (Redoute's Choice x Forest Pearl) ($2.50 fav)
Jockey: Craig Williams, Trainer: David Hayes
Barrier: 6, Weight: 55.5kg
Gross Time: 2:37.16, 600m Sectional: 35.27
Margin: 2.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 15
2nd: Tuesday Joy (55.5kg), 3rd: Anamato (55.5kg)
Timeform Rating: 124
Miss Finland beat a good field in the Oaks Photo by Racing and Sports The best way to sum up Miss Finland's contempt for her rivals is that she became the first filly to win the Golden Slipper and the VRC Oaks in the one year. Because of her ability but also the confidence held by owners, Miss Finland wasn't set along a normal Oaks path. She raced Haradasun first up, took on the fillies again including the Guineas where she just wobbled home after making a long, sustained run then was desperately disappointed for a clear path in the Cox Plate. With no weight on her back but Lisa Cropp steering, the filly was only behind Fields of Omagh by 3L and nothing went right. With that her final lead up, she took on a true challenger in Tuesday Joy who had brilliantly won the Wakeful on an horrendous fence biased track. Craig Williams was re-united with his 'Miss World' and rode her more aggressively in 7th place only to have Gai's filly tagging her all the way. Mary Goodnight set a very strong pace which you think would better suit the perceived better stayer but Williams wanted to make use of Miss Finland's class and he made the long run for home at the 400. Even with Tuesday Joy on her rump, the Slipper winner maintained the same 2L margin all the way up the straight. Her Autumn was as good as her Spring. WHERE DID THE THOUSAND GUINEAS WINNER FINISH – (1st) MISS FINLAND.
• 2007 – ARAPAHO MISS 3f (Danehill Dancer x Happy Heart) ($7)
In the EI affected year the Oaks won by Arapaho Miss might have been the one most curtailed Photo by Racing and Sports This Oaks race was probably an event heavily impacted by the effects of the EI ban on NSW and QLD horses. When you consider the massive turnover of fillies from the Spring to Autumn in the Oaks races, it wasn't hard to imagine that many new fillies would have come to the fore to accompany the like of Forensics who was able to go south and say Camarilla, Sashenka and others. To pose an interesting stat, three fillies who were beaten comprehensively here (Grand Journey, Riva San and Zarita) all won an Oaks and a Derby in the Autumn. There were eight stretched across the line past the winning post the first time before Class Prevails and Bantry Bay took it up. Riva San worked to the death seat while Corey Brown had Arapaho Miss four back the fence. Pat Carey's other runner Royale Harmony followed her in the run. All the field left the fence but Brown was more than happy to spear inside Serious Speed and rallied away as Zarita had no luck behind a wall of horses. Injury would prevent her from a prosperous future. WHERE DID THE THOUSAND GUINEAS WINNER FINISH – (2nd) SERIOUS SPEED.
• 2008 – SAMANTHA MISS 3f (Redoute's Choice x Milliyet ($1.90 fav)
Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Kris Lees
Barrier: 3, Weight: 55.5kg
Gross Time: 2:37.57, 600m Sectional: 34.94
Margin: 3.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 16
2nd: Miss Scarlatti (55.5kg), 3rd: Allez Wonder (55.5kg)
Timeform Rating: 120
Samantha Miss brained them Photo by Bronwen Healy Again the favourites dominated the Oaks but this gal was better than most. Her Princess Series culminated with an utterly dominating Flight Stks as she won well on the wet ground at Randwick but she would have won by panels more. With the Cox Plate there, it was an attraction too much to withhold. She ran very well at Moonee Valley placing with Glen Boss the replacement jockey. But Hugh Bowman was back in the swing for the Oaks. She jumped well and settled midfield as Oval Affair and Miss Scarlatti took it up. Bowman didn't take any risks, pulling her out at the 800. She ranged up and by the 300 it was all over. She too quick and was TOO GOOD. Unfortunately we'd only get to see her one more time at the races. WHERE DID THE THOUSAND GUINEAS WINNER FINISH – (DNS) GALLICA.
Faint Perfume gave Bart another Oaks winner Photo by Racing and Sports How many times have we seen this – nine times actually now. Bart gets a filly in the right races and they bloom at Flemington. In the middle of a massive roll for himself and Dato Tan (Viewed/So You Think) the famous chess game colours were to the fore again. She flew home in the Guineas indicating the big track was her go and in the Wakeful there was no holding back. She rounded them up and gave them a caning. As long as she backed up well in five days she was the winner. Well to be honest she was flat in the Oaks. As Melito didn't stay and a few others set a decent speed, Faint Perfume was back last with Valdemoro just in front. Everywhere she went, Rodd followed. He only just got his lead out down in the last 100m and the grand daughter of an Oaks winner used the bloodlines to just win. She'd come back to win the Vinery and Kewney but miss the boat in the Oaks in Sydney. WHERE DID THE THOUSAND GUINEAS WINNER FINISH – (DNS) IRISH LIGHTS.
• 2010 – BRAZILIAN PULSE 3f (Captain Rio x Sharazad) ($3 fav)
Jockey: Craig Williams, Trainer: Michael Moroney
Barrier: 7, Weight: 55.5kg
Gross Time: 2:41.64, 600m Sectional: 36.87
Margin: 0.8L, Track: Slow, Starters: 12
2nd: Shamrocker (55.5kg), 3rd: Placement (55.5kg)
Timeform Rating: 117
Brazilian Pulse was brave again after her Wakeful win Photo by Racing and Sports It is almost a total no brainer to back the Wakeful winner in the Oaks – no matter the price. Brazilian Pulse was unlucky in the Manifold, tried hard in the Guineas then was so brave on the Saturday posted wide and boxing on hard. In the Oaks Williams rode her forward again and she controlled the race. Sasa led them up and Moroney's filly sat off her. She took over on the bend and kicked away. There were a few heart flutters up the running as Shamrocker and Placement came at her but the class edge came to the fore. She showed how often the filly in the best form wins the Oaks even if they weren't the best stayers. By the time they'd gotten to the Autumn, the form was turned around but as a G1 winner she was very valuable at stud for her life after racing. WHERE DID THE THOUSAND GUINEAS WINNER FINISH – (10th) YOSEI.
RACE PROFILE
o Lee Freedman has won the Oaks four times recently but the legend Bart Cummings has got 9 notches on his Oaks belt.
o Before Samantha Miss, Slight Chance ('92) was the last Flight Stks filly to win the Oaks.
o As you may expect from the 2500 start at Flemington, good barriers have been so important to getting a good run.
o Over the last 18 years, five fillies did not run in the Thousand Guineas.
o Similarly five times the fillies have not run in Wakeful Stks – Faint Perfume the first since Serenade Rose to run on Derby day.
o There has been a red hot run for red hot favourites in this set weights race.
o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <5-8> - 5 times
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner – $3.60
o Last 10 Years Flight Stks / VRC Oaks double – Samantha Miss ('08)
o Last 10 Years Silver Shadow/Furious/Tea Rose/Flight Stks /VRC Oaks all up – Samantha Miss ('08)
o Last 10 Years Thousand Guineas Prelude / VRC Oaks double – Miss Finland ('06), Hollow Bullet ('04)
o Last 10 Years Edward Manifold / VRC Oaks double – Serenade Rose ('05), Special Harmony ('03)
o Last 10 Years Thousand Guineas / VRC Oaks double – Miss Finland ('06), Special Harmony ('03), Magical Miss ('01)
o Last 10 Years Wakeful Stks / VRC Oaks double – Brazilian Pulse ('10), Faint Perfume ('09), Serenade Rose ('05), Hollow Bullet ('04)
o Last 10 Years Golden Slipper Stks / VRC Oaks double – Miss Finland ('06)
o Last 10 Years McNeil Stks / VRC Oaks double – Miss Finland ('06)
SUMMARY & SELECTIONS
To be honest, this is now looking a race of less than G1 standard after Saturday.
Mosheen might have a class edge Photo by Racing and Sports
With the loss, temporary as it may be, of Atlantic Jewel, it's not of the quality. The way the high class filly destroyed them on Saturday, she would have only needed to be half fit to win it as it is.
That said it's a rich prize and someone has to win it.
And with the lack of normal speed, it may not be run at the sort of tempo to find the best stayer.
Because of that pace angle, maybe the horse getting the right run, softly in behind can win this.
Given Mosheen has gotten closest to the top filly in recent runs, could she camp in behind the speed and simply outsprint them.
Remember she took on open G1 F&M company on Saturday as her lead up and while it was at the mile, she toughed it out on pace when many of those around her dropped off.
Dowager Queen is the other one to consider. She ran well in the Flight Stks before a desperately unlucky second in the Ethereal. You'd think she has those covered from that race.
It was too far behind to make up the ground in the Wakeful but nothing did.
Could she give Savabeel both the Derby and Oaks?
While she hasn't won since a Paeroa Open 2yo, Vittoria worked home stylishly in the Ethereal. She gets back but it's not a big field and she likes to get to the outside which has been the pattern of the carnival.
If anything she should be advantaged by the 2500m and the trainer suits the stayers.
