3 minute read
Racing and Sport’s race analyst Simon Dinopoulos takes a look at tomorrow’s Sydney meeting from a 20-year statistical perspective.
Warwick Stakes — Mares
Royal Decent fans will be encouraged that mares have won slightly more than their share of this event in the last 20 years.
While mares have only won 3 from 20 (15%), they have provided only 26 of the 212 contestants (12%). These winning mares were: Private Steer (2004); Sunline (1999); and What Can I Say (1998).
Warwick Stakes — 5YOs
5YO’s have the best record in the event. They've won nine of the past 20 (45%), providing 34% of the runners. So again, they’ve won more than their share.
Warwick Stakes — First Up
First-uppers have a great record. 13 of the past 20 victors come from this group. Of these 13 horses, 11 have raced in Group 1 company at their prior start.
The runners who fit this profile this weekend are:
• My Kingdom Of Fife• DissidentThe horses winning first-up, who competed in Group 1 company at their previous starts are:
2010 - Metal Bender - Gr1 Doomben Cup
2008 - Racing To Win - Gr1 All Aged Stakes2006 - Court's In Session - Gr1 Chipping Norton
2004 - Private Steer - Gr1 All Aged Stakes2003 - Lonhro - Gr1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
2002 - Defier - Gr1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes2000 - Al Mansour Gr1 Doncaster
1999 - Sunline - Gr1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes1997 - Filante - Gr1 Chipping Norton Stakes
1996 - Filante - Gr1 AJC Derby1994 - March Hare - Gr1 All Aged Stakes
Warwick Stakes — Favourites
Favourites have a great record in this race, having won eight of the past 20.
There is still some doubt (Friday morning) about who will run the favourite, if Messene comes out.
Warwick Stakes — Chris Waller and Sacred Falls
Chris Waller has only won this race once previously, with Metal Bender in 2010, but can enhance this record on Saturday with the market currently deeming him a 62% chance of success.
Sacred Falls is the second top Timeform-rated horse in the country, Tommy Berry rides and he strikes suitable conditions first up. He appeals as the one.
Show County Quality — Terravista
Terravista (4) appeals in race five.
A highly promising galloper, he stormed towards the top bracket of sprinters last campaign with a pair of fast Group 3 wins. On the back of those performances he looks well placed.
Terravista is unbeaten at Randwick, and is unbeaten in three first up attempts.
He has failed on a wet track previously — but that was in the George Ryder, when he pulled up with heat stress.
Being a half-brother to Tiger Tees – I have little concerns about him getting through the ground, and he profiles as a galloper heading in the right direction.
Hugh Bowman links back aboard and he’s unbeaten on Terravista — and currently strikes at 41% for the Joe Pride Stable
Terravista should roll forward from the middle draw, and prove very hard to get past in the straight.
Toy Show Quality — Gypsy Diamond
Gypsy Diamond (4) appeals in race seven.
This talented mare steps out on debut for the Snowden camp, after being previously in the care of John O'Shea.
She showed great improvement last time in, culminating in a narrow defeat in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf - and does appear to be back in great order.
First up last time in, Gypsy Diamond finished a close second behind Sweet Idea in the Light Finger Stakes - and has performed well on a rain affected tracks — placed three form three.
The Snowden stable is on fire, striking at 29% — and just shy of 20% — with horses racing first up.
Blake Shinn rides for the first time and currently strikes he at 67% for the Snowden camp — having won four of six attempts.
Gypsy Diamond has never missed the money at Randwick — and I expect her to be very hard to beat on Saturday
Ranvet Handicap — Diamond Oasis
Diamond Oasis (11) appeals in race eight.
This handy sprinter steps out on debut for the Joe Pride stable, after previously being under the care of John O'Shea.
Gelded this time in, his two trials in the lead up have been solid after not being knocked about.
Diamond Oasis contests Benchmark company for only the third time, as he’s often taken on Stakes company, and was only 3L off Kencella prior to a break.
His form last time in was very good, and he does look to have a slight edge on his rivals on Saturday.
Joe Pride strikes at 18% with horses having their first run for his stable, recording a profit-on-turnover.The booking of Hugh Bowman is a positive — and he has placed aboard Diamond Oasis previously.
Joe Pride was striking at 19% with gallopers racing first up last season.There is some concern with the rails draw, but Diamond Oasis does look a good gamble at each-way odds.
